My thoughts on the Cubs

2009-08-17T02:54:00.002-05:00

Bored? Bet on sports or play cards!

2009-07-30T20:54:00.006-05:00

Bored?

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(If all of the numbers on CentSports are too confusing for you, click on this to get a good explanation.)

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Explaining how to play the odds

2009-07-13T20:13:00.003-05:00

This is a tutorial on how to play on CentSports. To find out what it is, see the previous post.

----

So you want to play on CentSports, but you think it's too confusing?

Well, this should help walk you through what all the different numbers mean.

THE MONEYLINE:
If you just want to pick who will win the game, then the moneyline is what you want to play. On CentSports, the moneyline is listed in the middle.

For example, say you think that in the game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks, the Dodgers will win. Then, you could play the Dodgers -122 as shown below.

(Click on image to see larger size!)

Whenever you see a - sign in front of a number, that means that team is the favorite to win! The number after the - sign tells you how much of a favorite they are and gives you the odds that you will be playing.

-122 means that if you bet $1.22 on the game and you win, then you will get your original bet back plus a winning of $1.00. (This doesn't mean you must exactly bet $1.22. You can bet any amount you want and the computer will figure out how much you would win!)

If you see a + sign in front of a number, that means your team is the underdog. Because there is a greater risk when picking the underdog, you will have a greater reward. For example, you will notice that in the above picture, the Chicago White Sox are listed at +143. This means that if you bet $1.00 on the White Sox and they win, you will get your original bet back plus a winning of $1.43!

THE SPREAD:
Trying to pick who wins the game is not the only way you can play on sports. If you are feeling ambitious, you can play the spread. On CentSports, this is listed on the left column.

Do you think that the Dodgers will blowout the Diamondbacks? Then, pick Dodgers -1.5 (+140) like shown below.

(Click on image to see larger size!)

The "-1.5" part means that after the game is over, you have to subtract 1.5 from the Dodgers score.

If the final score was Dodgers 7 vs Diamondbacks 5, we would subtract 1.5 from the Dodgers score and get: Dodgers 5.5 vs Diamondbacks 5. The Dodgers still have a higher score, so you would win this bet!

If the final score was Dodgers 5 vs Diamondbacks 4, we would subtract 1.5 from the Dodgers score and get: Dodgers 3.5 vs Diamondbacks 4. The Dodgers no longer have a higher score, so this would be a lost bet.

Why would you want to make this bet? If you are confident that the Dodgers will blow out the Diamondbacks, then this bet will increase your winnings. Remember in our previous example, the moneyline Dodgers was -122.

But now look. What does the line say? It says Dodgers -1.5 (+140). Remember, the + sign means that you will win more money than you bet. If you bet $1.00 and the Dodgers do actually win by two or more runs, then you would receive your original bet back plus a winning of $1.40!

THE TOTALS:
Other times, you don't have to bet on the outcome of the game at all. Sometimes, you can bet on what the total score of the game will be. On CentSports, this is listed in the right-most column.

For the Chicago White Sox and Oakland Athletics game, the total is set at 8.5. It is your job to decide if the total score of the game will be over 8.5 or under 8.5. If you think it will be a high scoring game, you could pick over (-105).

(Click on image to see larger size!)

How much money would you win? Look at the odds.

Remember, the - sign means that you will win an amount less than your bet because it was a surer play. The odds are -105, which means that if you successfully bet $1.05, you would get your original bet back plus win an additional $1.00.

New Blog

2009-05-16T15:55:00.003-05:00

My blog on the Chicago Cubs has been moved to be a part of the MLBlogs network. It can now be seen here.

http://ekim52.mlblogs.com/

As of June 4, there are ten entries on the newer blog that can not be found anywhere on this page. All new entries will be posted on the new blog, without any more mention of them on this page.

Piniella pushed right buttons

2009-05-16T15:55:00.000-05:00

Recently, I've noticed more and more that manager Lou Piniella has not been making the right moves. However, he managed Saturday's 5-4 win against the Astros perfectly.

Yes, part of that perfect managing is how he handled the bullpen. Piniella let Randy Wells go six scoreless innings and pulled him after 97 pitches and a 3-0 lead. This was the perfect time to take him out of the game and the bullpen was lined up.

Angel Guzman threw a scoreless seventh and Carlos Marmol matched that with a goose egg of his own in the eighth. The offense tacked on another insurance run in the bottom of the eighth, but that wasn't going to change the plan for the rest of the day. Kevin Gregg comes into the game with a four-run lead and it's game over, right?

Gregg struggled, allowing the first five runners to reach, including two homers. But that's not Piniella's fault. The manager showed faith in his closer and stuck with him until the last possible moment he could. That's not his fault, either; Gregg just had a bad day.

Piniella went to Heilman to record two outs and then used Sean Marshall to turn around Lance Berkman for the final out of the inning. With the bench short-handed as Milton Bradley sat out the game due to his suspension, Lou needed to double switch. So, Aaron Miles entered to play second and bat second in the bottom of the ninth. As it turns out, Miles recorded the final assist of the top of the ninth inning and laid down a perfect sacrifice that eventually led to the winning run in the bottom of the ninth.

In that sequence of events, Piniella did everything exactly how he should have. But, to be honest, those in-game events were pretty run-of-the-mill. The game (for the most part) went exactly according to script and Piniella followed it to a tee.

The most impressive decision that Piniella made regarding this game was his choice to leave Wells as the starter. The rookie right hander was originally scheduled to start Friday's game that was rained out. I had suggested that Piniella should just skip Wells entirely, and stay in tune with the rest of the rotation.

Instead, he stuck with Wells and moved Marshall to the bullpen. And both Wells and Marshall played their roles perfectly in the win.

Dealing with the Cubs' injuries

2009-05-09T20:26:00.008-05:00

I'm not sure who to blame for this incompetence, but the actions that went on in the top of the seventh inning are absolutely inexcusable! Lee should be on the disabled list.

For those of you that missed it, the Cubs had loaded the bases with just one out in the inning when Micah Hoffpauir's spot in the lineup came up. At the time, the Cubs were trailing but just a run.

Ken Macha called Lou Piniella's bluff and burned his only lefty, Mitch Stetter, in that spot. Derrek Lee was supposedly available to pinch-hit, but he remained in the dugout as Hoffpauir took the at-bat against Stetter, who had held lefties to a 2-for-22 clip thus far in the season.

As it turned out, Hoffpauir was no match for Stetter, who struck out the first baseman on three pitches and then Villanueva retired Soto to end the inning.

Derrek Lee is turning into Sammy Sosa here. He was once the leader of the ballclub and a daily fixture in the heart of the order, but now he has become an old washed-up has-been who piles on numbers in situations that don't matter. More outrageously, he's turned into a selfish player, who cares more about himself than about his team.

When asked about two days ago, Lee emphatically claimed that a move to the DL would not happen. "I promise you, that's impossible," said Lee. Why is it him that can make such ridiculous claims? The decision to go on the disabled list is not his; he should do what is best for the team.

I saw the downfall of Sosa two years before anyone else in the world did, and I've been saying the same for Lee for over a year now.

Lee has been completely unavailable for four days now. He is not the superstar that he used to be for which we should afford exceptions. Especially not with the team banged up right now. Even when healthy, Lee is not the best first baseman on this team, either offensively or defensively! While Hoffpauir is at-best an average fielder, Lee is not better; the Gold Glove in 2007 was an absolute joke.

But, in order to keep Lee from getting upset, the team has elected to keep him on the roster, instead of turning to Jake Fox. Fox is hitting .389 with 9 doubles and 12 homeruns in the first 95 at-bats with Iowa, but Lee is forcing true talent to rot in the minors. He would've been able to take the at-bat for Hoffpauir and while obviously I can not guarantee that he would have produced, one thing is for certain. He would've had a chance. Hoffpauir had no chance.

The residual effects of the squandered opportunity led to the downfall for the rest of the night. Without having the lead, Piniella elected not go to the bullpen that is short-handed and so bad. Announcers Bob Brenly and Len Kasper speculated that Dempster was done after his fifth inning of work, as had I. But, instead, Piniella was forced into using Dempster for the sixth and then trotted him out there again for the bottom of the seventh inning, after he had already logged 111 pitches.

With momentum squarely in the Brewers' dugout and a tiring pitcher on the mound, the Milwaukee bats were able to break the game wide open.

When it rains...: Len Kasper has used this phrase on more than one occasion to describe the Cubs' injury woes, but it seems all too appropriate.

When it rains, it pours.

Coming into Saturday's game with the Brewers, the Cubs had already lost Aramis Ramirez, Milton Bradley, Geovany Soto, Derrek Lee, Koyie Hill, Ryan Freel, Carlos Zambrano, Carlos Marmol, and Kevin Gregg for some period of time during the season. The Cubs have managed to use the disabled list only twice thus far, but Fox will become the third. In just the thirtieth game of the season, Chad Fox left in the eighth inning with an injury to his right elbow.

Fox has already undergone two Tommy John surgeries and had worked so hard to return the Majors. This return is most likely over.

Fox's spot in the bullpen will be replaced before Sunday's game. Jeff Samardzija has been up with the big club before, but it is unlikely he will get the call. Jose Ascanio has been pitching well, posting a 1.01 ERA in 26.2 innings, but the team appears to be trying to convert him into a starter.

That leaves the decision between Jeff Stevens, who has allowed no runs and just four hits over 14 innings and Greg Reinhard, who has allowed one run and fifteen hits over 18.1 frames.

Wells gets nod against Crew

2009-05-08T14:14:00.001-05:00

The Cubs placed right-hander Carlos Zambrano on the disabled list four days ago and selected the contract of infielder Bobby Scales from Iowa. Scales, who hit .303 in 76 at-bats in AAA, went 1-for-4 in the Majors with his only hit coming off of Tim Lincecum.

Now, Zambrano's spot in the rotation has come up and manager Lou Piniella has pegged Randy Wells as the guy. In a corresponding roster move, the Cubs have outrighted outfielder Joey Gathright and then traded him to the Baltimore Orioles for utility man Ryan Freel. Freel is currently on the disabled list after being hit in the back of the head with a pickoff throw on April 20.

Freel is expected to be activated within a few days and at that point either Scales would be sent down to Iowa, or Lee or Ramirez will be sent to the disabled list.

Piniella sits team against Lincecum

2009-05-05T12:35:00.006-05:00

Going into Tuesday's game, the Cubs had won four games in a row. But Tuesday's opponent was the reigning Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum and everyone knew that running the streak to five was going to be tough. Now, Lou Piniella is making it tougher.

The decision to play Koyie Hill over Geovany Soto is obvious; this is a day game after a night game. Ryan Theriot was also scheduled to get an off-day, despite the fact that he has hit three homeruns in the last four games. But, in addition to that, Piniella has decided to sit Milton Bradley, Aramis Ramirez, and Alfonso Soriano.

That leaves the lineup as:
CF Gathright
SS Miles
RF Fukudome
1B Lee
LF Hoffpauir
3B Fontenot
2B Scales
C Hill
P Marshall

To top it off, relievers Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg are unavailable for the most part.

It's true that all of the players sitting today certainly needed an off-day, but it seems like Piniella would rather sit all of them at once instead of sitting them one at a time over the course of about a week. It's a day game after a night game and it's get-away day, so if there was ever a time to do it, it would be now.

While, it's not exactly like this game is being conceded, I don't like it. Sure, it's our fifth starter against their ace, so losing this game isn't the worst thing in the world. But, over the course of a single game, missing one player really doesn't hurt too bad. For example, on any given day, Gathright could outhit Soriano or Scales could outhit Fontenot.

Therefore, sitting each of the guys one at a time would not drastically impact our chances in those games. But, this dramatically shifts the edge to San Francisco for the series finale.

Cubs disable Z, select Scales

2009-05-04T16:13:00.000-05:00

The Cubs have finally placed a player on the disabled list.

Catcher Geovany Soto, outfielder Milton Bradley, and infielders Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee have all suffered injuries that have kept them out of the lineup for some period of time, but none had gone to the disabled list. Now, ace pitcher Carlos Zambrano will miss at least two starts as he is the first Cub to be placed on the disabled list this year. Zambrano left Sunday's game in the fifth inning after tweaking his hamstring trying to leg out a bunt hit.

For now, the team has selected infielder Bobby Scales. The switch-hitting 31-year-old infielder has been in the minor leagues since 1999 but has never been with a Major League ballclub. Scales came close last Thursday as Ramirez was almost placed on the disabled list. But, the team made a game-time decision to keep Ramirez on the active roster, who is in the starting lineup Monday.

In 21 games with Iowa, Scales hit .303 with 3 homers and 10 RBI's. Jake Fox is absolutely mashing the ball in the minors, hitting a robust .420 with 12 homers in just 81 at-bats, but unfortunately for him, he does not fill a position need for the team. When Zambrano's turn in the rotation comes back up, the team is expected to send Scales back to Iowa to make room for Randy Wells, who is 3-0 with the AAA club.

Discussing Heilman's double switch

2009-04-26T15:31:00.004-05:00

With Neal Cotts struggling to get out of the bottom of the seventh inning, manager Lou Piniella went with Aaron Heilman to face the Cardinals' Albert Pujols with a man in scoring position and two outs and a four-run lead.

The only trouble was that the pitcher's spot was due up second in the eighth inning. So Piniella decided to double switch, taking out the guy who had made the last out, Geovany Soto. This way, Hill is inserted into the ninth spot and Heilman's spot in the batting order is nine spots away.

Normally, this is a run-of-the-mill move.

The only issue was that the Cubs were incredibly short-handed as is. The five position players that were on the roster that did not start the game were Aramis Ramirez, Milton Bradley, Micah Hoffpauir, Joey Gathright, and Koyie Hill. The first two are clearly unable to play defense and Hoffpauir was already used to replace the injured Lee. That left Hill and Gathright as the only available position players.

After the double switch, Gathright was the last man left on the bench. Should anything have happened to another player, this could have spelled disaster. Just as one example, if Theriot had to leave the game, then Gathright would have to enter in left field, Soriano would play second base and Miles would have to play out of position at short.

Thankfully, the situation didn't come up, but it didn't seem like it was worth the risk.

Two hurt as Cubs drop third straight

2009-04-24T22:26:00.003-05:00

Things certainly are not looking up for the Cubs.

After a blisteringly hot 8-4 start to the season, the Cubs have since dropped three straight, including the final two at home against the Cincinnati Reds and the series opener in Busch Stadium. The offense was held in check by Johnny Cueto, Aaron Harang, and Adam Wainwright, scoring only four times in the last three games (and three were unearned runs). To add injury to insult (in this case), both third baseman Aramis Ramirez and reliever Carlos Marmol left Friday's game early.

But, we need to all take a step back and take this for what it is. Before the year started, we knew that there would be stretches where we would win three games in a row and lose three games in a row. We've already had two separate three-game win streaks and now we're on the losing streak. This is no surprise and this is no cause for alarm; we all knew it was going to happen sometime.

At the risk of sounding cliche, the baseball season is a marathon. Currently, the season is less than 10% old; if this was a football season, we would only be a game and a quarter into it. And it's not like we've been playing poorly, either. It's not all loom and gloom. We are over .500!

But it seems like Piniella started to show the first sign of urgency, something that came way too soon. I'm glad that he finally realized that Lee needed to be moved out of the third spot, but unfortunately, it came at the price of Soriano being moved there.

(Let's cut the crap, people. If you still think that Soriano should be batting anywhere but leadoff, then you need to pay more attention to the games. Maybe two years ago this time, this would've been a conversation worth having, but we all ought to know by now that Soriano is not going to succeed in the heart of the lineup. That's over and done with, so get over it. Soriano is the leadoff hitter. Period.)

But, Piniella in his desperate attempts to shake the lineup around, moved Soriano out of the leadoff spot and I kind of feel like the changes that he made in the lineup were just for the sake of changes; they were hardly necessary! The team was 8-6 and were shut down by two of the league's better pitchers. Besides, it's not like the weather was exactly conducive to hitting those two days.

Throwing out another cliche: you can't win the pennant in April, but you can lose it. We need to forget about any hopes that we may have had about having a five-game lead in the division by the time we get out of school. That's not going to happen, but more importantly, that does not need to happen.

The team has been banged up, with injuries to Geovany Soto, Milton Bradley, and now Ramirez. Contrary to popular belief, the latter two will get healthy and at some point, all three of them would be hitting. For now, the Cubs just need to stay afloat.

And so far, we have been.

The injury to Soto caused back-up catcher Koyie Hill to start five games in a row. Hill collected a hit in each of those of five games and put up a .333 average while knocking home five runs. Would Hill be able to do this long term? Absolutely not, but he was able to hold down the fort for five games and lead his team to a 4-1 record during the span that Soto was hurt.

With Bradley's injury, Fukudome, Johnson and Hoffpauir all have been getting time in right field. This group of players have been able to put together a decent stretch and the Cubs are 4-4 in games in which Bradley has not started.

No one is expecting these replacements to fill in exactly for the guys they are replacing. And we all understand that if we were to count on them long term, bad things may happen. Both Mike Fontenot and Aaron Miles have shown that they are able to produce for small stretches of time and that's exactly what we need.

Meanwhile, it seems like Ramirez is out for an extended period of time. With Bradley banged up (though obviously OK enough to pinch hit), the only other usable pieces off of the bench are Joey Gathright and Micah Hoffpauir (and Hill). The team can not carry on like that, but the Cubs are rolling the dice and choosing not to place anybody on the DL.

Looking into the minor league system, infield relief could have come in the form of Bobby Scales who is hitting .370 with 2 homers so far in the earlier season. Also, the team may have turned to red hot Jake Fox, who has already hit 6 doubles and 8 homers, while batting .426 over the first fifteen games. In just 61 at-bats at Iowa, Fox has already driven in a staggering 25 runs!

Soriano hot: In 109 games last year, Soriano posted an 0-for- on 30 different occasions. However, this year, Soriano has started in all 15 of his team's games and has hit safely in 14 of those 15 games, including in each of the last 11 games.

But, it's not like Soriano has magically changed into a better hitter. He's put together some quality at-bats, but we know he's also put together more than his fair share of truly pathetic at-bats. The numbers support that claim. In the first 64 official times at-bat this season, Soriano has struck out 19 times, which is actually at a higher ratio than 103 strikeouts in 453 times at-bat from last year.

We all know that Soriano is a streaky hitter. But, hopefully he can keep this going just a while longer until the team gets healthier.

Cubs 8-5, but not without concerns

2009-04-22T23:50:00.001-05:00

The baseball season is already two and a half weeks old. All in all, those two and a half weeks have been very good for the Cubs; the 8-5 record will attest to that. But despite the strong start, there are issues that need to be addressed.

The bullpen is a problem. Aaron Heilman has seemed to step up as the seventh inning man and that has made the Cubs gameplan with a late lead clear. But, the troubles come when the Cubs are not winning late. For example, in the Cubs' 3-0 loss to the Reds on Wednesday, Ted Lilly was able to match Johnny Cueto pitch for pitch and keep his team in the ballgame. But eventually, he had to give way to the bullpen trailing by a run. Angel Guzman answered the call in the eighth inning and gave up a key insurance run that essentially shut the door.

I hear some of you saying "but the Cubs didn't score any runs at all, so it wouldn't have mattered." But that's far from the point. The bigger picture is what is troubling. And I'm not talking about what if the Cubs do score runs late next time (and it's happened before; already, opposing pitchers have blown 5 saves). I'm talking about this causing changes in the way manager Lou Piniella handles his bullpen.

Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg, as much as possible, should be limited to roles in which they are designed for. If the team can manage this, then there is very little doubt in my mind that these two pitchers will be successful. But when they are called upon to pitch in other situations and become overworked, that's when they will start to falter. A small scale example is when Cotts struggled to get out of the seventh inning against the Brewers on April 10. This led to a string of events which eventually ended in Gregg being asked to convert a four-out save. I'm not going to dwell on this further, because I already talked about that when it happened, but it's just an example of how other pitchers can make all of the rest of the team look better.

And the Cubs recognize this and are responding quickly, recalling pitcher Jeff Samardzija. The hope was to keep Samardzija in Iowa and let him develop as a starting pitcher, but as was the case last year, he is being called upon to be a reliever at the Major League level out of necessity. Luis Vizcaino has been designated for assignment.

Bradley out again: It appeared that the injured outfielder was healthy enough to play. Bradley was in the lineup hitting fourth in the Cubs' 3-0 loss to the Reds on Wednesday. But after an 0-for-4 day which included three strikeouts, the Cubs management is changing their story once again.

Piniella has now stated that he would keep Bradley out of the lineup until he is absolutely 100% and that he is far from that at the moment. Even despite that, the team isn't considering placing him on the disabled list and Bradley isn't considering dropping the appeal to his two-game suspension.

Earlier this season, Red Sox pitcher Josh Beckett dropped the appeal of a five-game suspension because it was beneficial to the team. "If it was up to me, obviously, we would have gone through with this whole thing, because I don't think I deserve even one game," said the Boston right-hander. "When your boss tells you that something is best for the whole group, that's what we do."

Yet, Bradley will not be dropping his appeal. However, I think that Bradley would drop his appeal if the team asked him to. So far, we've noticed that Piniella hasn't quite lived up to his "tough guy" reputation that he developed in Seattle and Tampa Bay and he is turning into a player's manager. And it appears he's going to let Bradley see this thing through.

The stupidity in baseball

2009-04-17T16:26:00.001-05:00

I know people are stupid. Hell, I know most people are downright retarded. But, the level of stupidity and ignorance of people never ceases to shock me. Just when I thought I had seen it all...

More and more, I've slowly been noticing that people are so stupid to the point that I can no longer even guess what the next stupid thing that comes out of their mouths would be. (Okay, actually by now, I was able to guess that people would want Marmol closing over Gregg.) But some things come so far out of left field that I never would've even dreamed of what they were thinking, even if I tried.

But this tops them all.

After Colby Rasmus -- who represented the tying run in Friday's 8-7 Cubs win over the Cardinals -- was walked on four straight pitches to lead off the top of the ninth inning, the Cardinals fans are adamant that we hit Albert Pujols intentionally. Apparently, they say this because a) they were so sure that everyone in the ballpark knew that Pujols was going to hit the go-ahead homer and that b) Piniella had said earlier that he wouldn't let Pujols beat him.

Right, so instead we intentionally decided to put the tying in scoring position and the go-ahead run on base with no outs in the inning. Ryan Ludwick, who had already homered twice, was on deck but that's hardly the point. Never mind who the on-deck batter was, any Major League hitter is more likely to drive in Rasmus from second than Pujols is likely to drive him in from first. (Look it up: Pujols had 81 extra-base hits last year in 524 at-bats and it would have taken at least a double to drive in Rasmus from first. But, with Rasmus on second, any type of hit ties the game. Are you seriously trying to tell me that no one else on the team can hit better than .155?)

Besides, what kind of savage are you? And what kind of baseball have you been watching in your lifetime? No pitcher in either the American or National League intentionally throws at batters just because they are too lazy to intentionally walk the batter. In fact, very few times will a pitcher ever intentionally throw near the batter and there's always a very calculated purpose when he does. Someone said he didn't believe the pitch was accidental because it didn't look like a slider. Are you kidding? Do you know what a slider is? (I'm trying to find video footage of that AB to put on this, so everyone can see it. If you can find a link, I would appreciate you letting me know.)

Actually, one Cardinal fan was so gracious enough to "give us the benefit of the doubt" that Piniella "has class". How noble!

Now, it would be very easy for me to say that this is just typical of Cardinals fans, but this kind of stupidity is not limited just to fans of the Cardinals. It's present among baseball fans all across the country and even people in their normal day-to-day lives.

Why Lou picked Marmol

2009-04-11T23:41:00.000-05:00

There's no controversy here. Kevin Gregg is still the closer.

Carlos Marmol was warming up in the top of the ninth inning while the Cubs were trailing 5-4. That's the right decision, because you can't warm up your closer on the road with the team trailing. Very suddenly, the Cubs took the lead, with a pinch-hit single by Johnson and the two-run homer by Soriano on the very next pitch and now the Cubs were now on top. There was already one out in the inning and knowing the Cubs offense, the inning could've ended just as quickly.

So Lou decided to keep going with his plan. There wasn't enough time to sit Marmol down and get Gregg warming up in the bullpen. Besides, Marmol was already throwing, so why waste him?

After the game, Piniella made his point clear to the press.

"Gregg is still our closer," said the manager. "I can't get them both up. I said that the other night in Houston. I can't afford to get them both up, because I lose them. We got Marmol up just in case we tied or went ahead, and that was the end of it. I said when the season started there will be opportunities for both of them, but believe me, tomorrow, if we get into a similar situation, Gregg will be the closer."

Piniella loses game, Hill loses temper

2009-04-10T19:46:00.002-05:00

Wow, that was ugly.

Rich Harden pitched six solid innings and Lou Piniella wasted it. After Koyie Hill put the Cubs ahead 3-2 with a clutch two-run homer, the game seemed to be set up for the Cubs. But, the weak bullpen that we were afraid of showed up. Bridging to Marmol and Gregg was so problematic that it created a chain reaction of bad events.

Heilman and Cotts couldn't get out of the seventh inning, so Piniella had to bring Marmol in. Those that know me well know that I love to play the matchups, so I'm not going to fault our manager for these moves in the seventh inning. When the top of the eighth inning rolled around, Mike Fontenot doubled to lead off the game and a clutch insurance run was on second base.

Ryan Theriot was not asked to bunt like he should have been, as Piniella decided to take his chances. Theriot came through anyway, grounding out to the right side of the infield, allowing Fontenot to advance ninety feet. After Hill was walked, I cringed at the thought that Piniella might actually leave Marmol in to hit. Thankfully, he didn't -- but he chose the wrong guy to hit for him.

Over the past two years, Piniella has developed a habit of using Marmol for more than an inning. This ultimately led to his struggles in the postseason in 2007 and a rough mid-season patch for 2008. I would much rather Marmol be used as a specialist out of the bullpen, much like he was today. I'd rather he goes less than an inning in a tough spot than more than an inning. At least, Piniella got that right and let's hope he sticks with that plan.

Aaron Miles should've been kept back, not only because Micah Hoffpauir was the best bet to be able to drive in Fontenot from third base, but because Miles was the emergency catcher for the game. Geovany Soto was unavailable due to a sore shoulder, which forced Hill into the starting role. Miles had to be taken out for a reliever in the next inning, so that move burned the emergency catcher off of the bench.

In any event, Sean Marshall was asked to come in the game in the bottom of the eighth inning to face Fielder. That sets up the lefty-lefty matchup, so I'm okay with that. After Fielder reached, Piniella went to Vizcaino for the string of righties that would ensue. I would've went with Patton, but that's just a personal preference; the fact that he made the pitching change was not wrong and I had no troubles with that move at all.

The puzzling move was when Piniella turned to Gregg with two outs in the inning. Sure, Gregg got out of the eighth inning, but that's not the point. The troubles that we so narrowly avoided with Marmol were negated by Piniella making the same decision with Gregg. Had Gregg entered to set up a righty-righty matchup, I would understand. I would not agree with throwing the closer for more than three outs, but I would understand. However, taking Vizcaino out of the game for Gregg did not make any sense.

For me to claim that Gregg was not at all responsible for the blown save would be wrong. After all, getting four outs in a single game is not impossible. But people are calling for Gregg's head already! Never mind the ridiculous notion that fans are calling for a closing change after a single blown save and never mind the fact that Marmol is nowhere near the closer that Gregg is, the brunt of the blame has to be squarely on the shoulders of the manager; he did not put his guys in the best position to succeed.

To top it off, immediately after the game-winning run scored, Hill showed his immaturity. He tried arguing a call that was not even close and then spiked the baseball into the ground towards his own dugout when he didn't win the argument. That play made the team look childish, as well as open up the potential for a whole lot of trouble. There was no way to tell where that ball could have ended up and there's certainly no room for that kind of carelessness on this ballclub.

That brought on flashbacks of the Peoria Chiefs incident last year, where Julio Castillo threw a fastball into the stands striking a fan, resulting in prison time for the young pitcher. Hopefully, Piniella will do something right and give Hill a good talking-to about his temper tantrum.

Soto still out: The lies are continuing from the Cubs' medical staff. What was supposed to be just a couple of days for Soto is turning into an entire week. The Cubs were so quick to point out that Soto suffered a similar injury in the minors and missed four days. Of course, there is no detailed record of minor league transactions; how can we check? They claimed this injury was much less severe, so he would be back even quicker.

Now, after missing two games (and an off-day in between), the team is announcing that Soto will likely miss the remainder of the series with Milwaukee. What the hell?

First of all, I'm very curious to find out why the Cubs medical staff has lied to us for the better part of a decade now. What are they trying to hide? Secondly, how does not being coy with the fans help the team? I would not be at all surprised to see Soto hit the disabled list about five days from now, after the team claims that the injury was worse than they thought.

Of course, at that time, Piniella will quickly say that Soto doesn't actually need the full fifteen days. Rather, the team needed the roster spot as they couldn't continue for a longer period of time without a backup catcher. But, the fifteen day limit will come and go and by then, there will be no mention of Soto's return. They will hope we forget who he is.

This was the pattern they followed with Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Derrek Lee -- and as recently as last September, Carlos Zambrano. Can you take anything they say at face value any more? I've been too naive in the past, but this ends here. I'm done expecting the truth from this franchise and I'm done hoping that they get things right. I just want to know one thing: do they think that we are stupid? or what do they have to hide?

Angels' Adenhart dead after traffic accident

2009-04-09T14:23:00.001-05:00

I was going to write about the first series of the 2009 season. The Cubs just finished a three-game series with Houston to start the season, taking two games of the three. I was going to talk about just winning series and taking the season one step at a time.

Now, all of that seems so irrelevant.

Nick Adenhart threw six shutout innings last night, giving the Angels a 4-0 lead before leaving the game. The bullpen couldn't hold onto the lead and the Angels lost that game. Just few hours later, Adenhart lost the battle for his life. On his way home, the car Adenhart was riding in was struck by a drunk driver who ran a red light. Adenhart was taken to the hospital at UC-Irvine, where he died as a result of the injuries he sustained.

You will be in our prayers, Nick.

Just the way you draw it up

2009-04-06T20:56:00.003-05:00

So far, everything has gone exactly according to plan.

The Cubs clicked on all cylinders in the first game of the season against the Houston Astros. As Len Kasper was so quick to point out during the game, the defense bailed out Zambrano in the first few innings of the game and then Zambrano put the game on cruise control, shutting the Astros down the rest of the way.

The offense did its job, jumping on the board early with homeruns from sluggers Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez. Scoring three runs off of Astros' ace Roy Oswalt in seven innings is no easy task and the Cubs' staff made it stick, as if reading from a finely-tuned script. Zambrano pitched into the seventh inning, and the middle guys bridged the gap to set-up man Carlos Marmol very nicely. The bottom of the ninth inning was a little more eventful than most would have hoped, but Kevin Gregg converted the save nonetheless and the Cubs are 1-0 in the 2009 season.

I was also very impressed by new outfielder Milton Bradley. He had himself a great day on the field defensively and an even better day at the plate. Sure, he might have went 0-for-3, but Bradley had three really long extended at-bats including a walk, which translated into a 3-for-4 day for Mike Fontenot who was hitting behind him.

The team seemed to be very pleased with the way things turned out after game 1 out of 162 and was in good spirits afterwards. Cubs' catcher Geovany Soto had called Piniella to the mound in the seventh inning, because he thought his right-hander was suffering from cramps; it turned out to be a false alarm. After the game, Zambrano commented that he thinks "Geo is the one who has to have Lasik surgery," alluding to the surgery he had in the off-season.

He continued to joke about his at-bat in the top of that inning. Zambrano swung for the fences three times (and missed three times) with a man on first and nobody out. "I don't know the bunt sign," he said. "There's no bunt sign for me. Two Silver Sluggers?"

The Cubs seemed to be really happy after the first game and they have good reason to be. If the first game is any indication of what the rest of the season is going to be like, 2009 is going to be one really fun season!

Patton, Guzman claim final spots

2009-04-05T16:46:00.002-05:00

Opening Day 2009 is upon us and Lou Piniella has finalized his list of 25 players that he will take into battle on the first day of the season. The Cubs -- coming off of back-to-back division championships -- are the early favorites to three-peat (as Phil Jackson would say).

Rule 5 selection David Patton and out-of-options Angel Guzman were pegged as the final two relievers out of the Cubs bullpen meaning that the Cubs had to release Chad Gaudin to make room. Gaudin, who was acquired in the same deal that sent Harden to the Cubs last summer, was originally believed to be in competition for the fifth spot in the rotation. However, Sean Marshall ran away with that race in the first half of camp, and Gaudin's spring training kept getting worse and worse. Ultimately, he ended with a 10.26 ERA, allowing 26 hits and 19 earned runs over just 16 2/3 innings in the exhibition season.

Angel Guzman also struggled in the spring, posting a 7.30 ERA across 12 1/3 innings pitched, but the second half of his spring training was considerably better than the first, which apparently encouraged Piniella. However, the only reason why any of this is even an issue is because David Patton -- a 24-year-old who has never pitched above class A ball -- threw marvelously in the spring, allowing just 14 hits and 2 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings.

The team took David Patton to the new Yankee Stadium for the final two games of the exhibition season and he got the nod to pitch in the fifth inning of the second game. Despite allowing a hit and two walks in the inning, Patton was able to escape the jam without giving up any runs and secure a spot on the roster. The team is convinced Patton is ready.

Patton and Guzman join Carlos Marmol, Aaron Heilman, Luis Vizcaino, lefty Neal Cotts, and closer Kevin Gregg in the bullpen. Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, Rich Harden and Marshall are the starters in the rotation. Jeff Samardzija seems like he was unfortunate for having options left, but he was probably better suited to start the season in Iowa as a starter anyway; there is no room for him on the big league rotation.

Geovany Soto and Koyie Hill, who recently beat out Paul Bako for a spot on the roster, are the team's two catchers and Derrek Lee, Aaron Miles, Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Theriot, Mike Fontenot, and Micah Hoffpauir are the team's infielders. The outfield will be patrolled mainly by the big four: Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome, Milton Bradley, and Reed Johnson while Joey Gathright is expected to play in many situational roles and jump over cars, when necessary.

Based on the way that the Lou Piniella has used his young guys before (Hart and Soto in 2007), I fully expect that Piniella will throw Patton into the fire the first time possible. Instead of letting the new players sit around and start thinking too much about the big pressure situation, Piniella hopes these players can get out there and perform before they really know what hit them. If the game is tied in the seventh inning or so with Zambrano's pitch count quickly on the rise, I would not be at all surprised if Patton is the man that Lou hands the ball to -- especially since there aren't many other appealing options in the bullpen.

Based on the lineup Piniella has used so far this spring, I expect to see Soriano taking the first at-bat of the season for the Cubs. He'll be followed by Miles and Lee. All indications point to Piniella using Bradley in the cleanup spot to break up the righties and put that league-leading .436 on-base percentage from last season in front of the slugging Ramirez. He'll be followed by Soto hitting sixth, Fukudome hitting seventh and Theriot in the eight-hole.

Zambrano will bat ninth and pitch in the opener against Astros' ace Roy Oswalt. On Tuesday, Dempster will answer the call against lefty Wandy Rodriguez, where Johnson is expected to get his first start of the season in center field.

Lilly will meet Brian Moehler in the final game of the first series and then Harden will oppose the Brewers' Braden Looper. Because of the extra off-days, Piniella could theoretically wait until April 19 to throw Marshall for the first time, but I suspect Marshall will be handed the ball in the fifth game of the season.

Piniella tabs Gregg as closer

2009-03-29T13:41:00.001-05:00

As Spring Training draws to a close, the roster is getting clearer and clearer.

Earlier today, manager Lou Piniella picked Kevin Gregg to be his closer to start the season. There was speculation that Carlos Marmol would be announced as the closer, but his performance with the Dominican Republic team during the World Baseball Classic and in Cubs camp has left Piniella to choose Gregg.

This is absolutely the right move.

I know a bunch of idiot fans out there want Marmol to be the closer, because he is liked more or because he throws harder (Gregg throws pretty hard, too). But Marmol has been suiting us very well in the eighth inning spot and that is his role. After all, Gregg has been a successful closer.

----

Kevin Gregg
Age: 30
Bats: Switch, Throws: Right

2006 LAA: 78.1 IP; 3-4 record, 4.14 ERA
2007 FLA: 84.0 IP; 0-5 record, 32 saves, 3.54 ERA
2008 FLA: 68.2 IP; 7-8 record, 29 saves, 3.41 ERA

Career (6 years): 18-21 record, 62 saves, 4.00 ERA

----

A friend of mine was quick to point out that this does allow Piniella to continue to abuse Marmol like he has been. Over the past couple of years, Piniella has run Marmol out there in a five-run game or for two innings too many times. While there's no guarantee that he would've used Marmol any differently had he remained as the closer, the fact that he is the set-up man does give Piniella more liberties.

Earlier in the spring, Sean Marshall was already named the fifth starter in the rotation, meaning that there are two roster spots left up for grabs. The race for the backup to Geovany Soto is expected to come down to the wire and while Paul Bako is probably the better choice for 2009, the fact that the Cubs would have to part ways with Koyie Hill if he doesn't break camp may influence the decision.

The final roster spot will be decided in the bullpen. Currently, there are nine relievers still with camp: Gregg, Marmol, Chad Gaudin, Aaron Heilman, Luis Vizcaino, Neal Cotts, Angel Guzman, David Patton, and Jeff Samardzija.

Clearly, the first five names on that list were always expected to make the roster and Cotts, being the lone lefty on that list, will also make the roster. This leaves one spot for three pitchers and I fully expect it to go to David Patton, meaning that Samardzija starts the year in Iowa and the out-of-options Guzman will be lost.

WBC: Japan and Venezuela group winners

2009-03-20T22:19:00.002-05:00

Japan and Venezuela have advanced to the semifinals of the 2009 World Baseball Classic, with Korea and the United States advancing as the group winners.

In the semifinals this weekend, Japan will square off against Jake Peavy and the United States while Korea will lock horns with Venezuela's Carlos Silva.

While, I do not wish to delve into this subject too much, there are three issues that I need to get off of my chest.

A. Why did Japan choose to start Shuichi Murata in the meaningless game against Korea? Yes, they got their precious group win, but now have lost their star slugger for the rest of the tournament.
B. Why is Venezuela throwing Carlos Silva in the semifinals?
C. Why was the second round paired the way it was? It's hardly the "world" baseball classic when Japan and Korea have met up four times in the first seven games and the same for US and Venezuela. The Asian teams do not need to fly to California to play each other over and over again.

Marshall kicks off second round with perfect 3

2009-03-03T18:11:00.002-06:00

The starting pitchers are making their second time through the rotation and Sean Marshall, Jeff Samardzija, Aaron Heilman, and Chad Gaudin all seemingly looked good, staying alive in the race.

However, Marshall appears to be pulling away from the pack. Marshall was the first pitcher to throw more than two innings this Spring and he did so in grand style, tossing three innings of perfect baseball as the Cubs topped the Athletics by a 6-4 clip.

Personally, I do not mind the competition, but feel that Marshall is the best option for job so I am glad that he has emerged as the early favorite. I also feel safe considering that Piniella feels the same way; Lou will only turn to someone else if he clearly deserves it. Part of me also hopes that Kevin Gregg can win the closing role while Marmol is gone. Piniella has said that he won't decide until Marmol gets back, but it is possible that Gregg can unofficially decide the race in the next few weeks. Gregg is an all-star closer and I don't understand why we're so quick to try to find someone else.

On that note, Gregg improved his chances with another scoreless inning. Pitching in the fourth, he allowed just a hit, but no walks or runs. It may seem odd that candidates for the closer's role are pitching so early in the game, but Marmol and Gregg have been the first reliever out of the bullpen the entire Spring. There's actually reason behind this, though; managers tend to pull their regulars halfway through the game, so pitching early ensures these candidates will face Major League caliber batters.

It's also encouraging to see the offensive threats start to pick up. Soriano and Ramirez, who have both had little playing time thus far, homered in Monday's win. Both did so in their typical fasion, too; Soriano to start the game and Ramirez coming through with a clutch two-on, two-out homer.

Jake Fox also homered for the second time this Spring and he looks to try to win a spot on the roster. Now that he's no longer just a catcher, there theoretically are more roster spots open to him. But since Gathright makes the team as the fifth outfielder because he is out of options, Fox would need to outplay Hoffpauir to be the sixth infielder on the team.

Cubs trounce Sox, go to 4-0

2009-02-28T17:41:00.002-06:00

It's not like Micah Hoffpauir has to work hard to make the club out of spring training. Lou Piniella likes him and his versatility a lot and Hoffpauir has been projected to make the roster since the end of last season.

But the soon-to-be 29-year-old (tomorrow) isn't leaving anything to chance.

Hoffpauir went 2-for-4 in the 13-0 thrashing of the cross-town Sox on Saturday, including an RBI single. He is now 6-for-15 (.400) with 2 homers and 8 RBIs for the spring. The Cubs are 4-0 and now the only NL team yet to lose.

The race of the final spot in the rotation also continued to heat up. During the first two games of the season, Jeff Samardzija, Mitch Atkins, Sean Marshall, and Chad Gaudin all pitched two strong innings to make their case and righty Aaron Heilman followed suit. Heilman threw two scoreless innings, allowing just a hit while fanning four batters. Rule 5 pick David Patton also tossed two scoreless frames in his bid to make the roster.

In other news, reliever Carlos Marmol has decided to represent the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic. Earlier this week, Marmol announced he would stay with the Cubs during the entire exhibition season to focus on the competition for the closer role with Kevin Gregg, but he has since changed his mind. Gregg threw a scoreless inning against the Sox on Saturday.

Koskie signs with Cubs: The Chicago Cubs have signed infielder Corey Koskie to a minor-league deal. He will report to Fitch Park after his tour with Team Canada is over.

Koskie's best season was in 2001, when he hit .276 while homering 26 times and driving in 103 runs with the Twins. However, after that, Koskie's batting average and production have been on a steady decline.

In 2006, he hit .261 with 12 homers and 33 RBIs in a partial season with the Brewers. Post-concussion syndrome has kept Koskie from playing since.

Gaudin stretched out; Bradley leaves early

2009-02-26T19:53:00.002-06:00

If the first two Cactus League games are any indication, the 2009 season should be a great one.

The Cubs dispatched the Dodgers behind Micah Hoffpauir's grand slam in the exhibition opener, while Jake Fox and Joey Gathright teamed up to pummel the Brewers in the second game.

Meanwhile, position battles are already starting to heat up for the team. Lou Piniella apparently is going to give almost everyone on the roster a shot at the fifth spot in the rotation. Jeff Samardzija led off the opener with a two inning start, allowing two runs on three hits. Mitch Atkins followed with two innings of one run, three hit ball.

Then, Sean Marshall, the favorite of this race, got his chance to show what he was made of at the beginning of the second game. He threw two innings while allowing just a run on four hits. Even reliever Chad Gaudin is getting a look this spring for a spot in the rotation. He threw two innings and allowed a run, as well.

Micah Hoffpauir and Joey Gathright have made their case to be on the roster once Opening Day rolls around. Hoffpauir's grand slam gave the club the win in game one and Gathright's 3-for-3 at the top of the order helped kick-start the offense in the second game. Not to be outdone, utility man Jake Fox went 2-for-3 and hit a three-run homer himself.

The only downfall so far is that the Cubs' new most-prized possession, Milton Bradley, is already facing injury problems. He left Thursday's game against the Brewers after drawing a walk in the first inning. Bradley cited a sore quad as the reason, but promises to be back in by the end of the week.

All in all, 2009 is shaping up to be a wonderful season!

Cubs keep dealing; Wuertz, Hill out

2009-02-02T13:26:00.001-06:00

Jim Hendry continues to deal players out of options, trading lefty Rich Hill to the Orioles and reliever Michael Wuertz to the Athletics. The returns aren't much, but at least it's something.

Andy MacPhail has agreed to give us a player to be named later in return, based on Hill's performance. Tim Dierkes points out that it's a no-risk move for the Orioles who "can afford to let Hill take his lumps at the big league level."

Billy Beane has sent minor leaguers Richie Robnett and Justin Sellers to the Cubs.

It's unclear if any of the players recieved in return will benefit the Cubs at any point in time. However, two things are clear:

a) By trading them now, Hendry at least gets something in return.
b) It unties manager Lou Piniella's hands a little bit. Piniella has five spots in the bullpen locked up already by Aaron Heilman, Chad Gaudin, Luis Vizcaino, Kevin Gregg, and Carlos Marmol. There aren't many other good options for Piniella, though he has a host of mediocre pitchers to choose from. The list contains names like Jeff Samardzija, Neal Cotts, Jeff Stevens, Kevin Hart, Angel Guzman, Randy Wells, and Rule 5 pick David Patton. Wuertz previously was holding one of those roster spots hostage because he was out of options.

Also, this string of moves opens up two roster spots. There have been some minor talks involving Randy Wolf and the Cubs. He could certainly fill the fifth spot in the rotation.

Done deal: Cubs sign Bako

2009-01-30T14:40:00.001-06:00

The Chicago Cubs have finally officially announced their signing of Paul Bako. The one-year deal is worth $725,000 in base pay with a possible $300,000 more in incentives.

Paul Bako is projected to be the team's back-up catcher behind last year's Rookie of the Year, Geovany Soto. Lou Piniella will likely only carry two catchers, so Koyie Hill is now projected to start the year in Iowa.

Cubs nab Heilmann; trade Cedeno, Olsen

2009-01-28T12:58:00.002-06:00

Jim Hendry has added competition for Sean Marshall in the fifth spot of the rotation.

The Chicago Cubs and Seattle Mariners agreed on a trade that sent right-hander Aaron Heilman to the Windy City in return for infielder Ronny Cedeno and lefty Garrett Olsen. Olsen was acquired by the Cubs in the deal that sent Pie to the east coast and was originally seen as a potential piece to the Peavy puzzle.

Heilman had a sub-par season last year, but had three really good seasons immediately before that. Heilman, who was a starter at the beginning of his career, has primarily been working out of the bullpen recently. However, all indications point to him being allowed to compete for a rotation spot should the team fail to land another big-name pitcher.

----
#49 Aaron Heilman - Pitcher
Throws: Right
Age: 30

2005 NYM: 108.0 IP (53 app, 7 GS); 5-3, 5 hld (5/6 sv), 3.17 ERA
2006 NYM: 87.0 IP (74 app, 0 GS); 4-5, 27 hld (0/5 sv), 3.62 ERA
2007 NYM: 86.0 IP (81 app, 0 GS); 7-7, 22 hld (1/6 sv), 3.04 ERA
2008 NYM: 76.0 IP (78 app, 0 GS); 3-8, 15 hld (3/8 sv), 5.21 ERA

Career (6 years): 22-33 record, 69 hld (9/25 sv), 4.24 ERA
----

I see this as a very positive move for the Cubs. Ronny Cedeno was out of options and Garrett Olsen was the product of trading Felix Pie. The basic end result is that we traded two out-of-options players that really didn't have a significant role on the team for Heilman.

Granted, I'm not expecting Heilman to be able to produce big for the ballclub. But, at the least, it gives Marshall competition and Heilman is more than suitable to plug Marshall's spot in the bullpen (even though he's not a lefty) should he lose the competition. Heilman is not eligible for free agency until the end of the 2010 season, so as long as he is a useable piece for the next two years, it's pretty good return for Cedeno and Pie.

Heilman is only set to make $1.625MM in the next season, so the added payroll that the Cubs take on due to this move is not that great (although the payroll is a little more flexible with Ricketts taking over).

This two-for-one move from Jim Hendry opens up a roster spot. While the obvious way to fill it is with Paul Bako, who is expected to sign for $750,000 (higher than my previous estimate of $500,000), there are supposedly talks about former Cy Young winner Jake Peavy as well as free-agent Randy Wolf. There's a little merit to these talks now that we know the team is going to be sold, but I am still a tad suspicious about the rumors. Tom Ricketts has still yet to take over the reigns of the club and Kevin Towers has sworn that Peavy would be his opening day starter.

Correction: After counting the number of players I had on the right-side of my blog for the Cubs' forty-man roster, I noticed that I had one player too many. Carmen Pignatiello is no longer with the team and since has been removed from my list. The names on the right-hand side of my blog are now accurate, and for added emphasis, I have specifically stated there is one roster spot empty at the moment. Does anyone know when Pignatiello became a free agent?

Ricketts wins bid to buy team

2009-01-22T19:51:00.002-06:00

The end is finally in sight for the uncertainty in the Cubs ownership.

A group headed by Tom Ricketts has reportedly won the bid to purchase the team with an offer of $900MM. The details have not yet been finalized, but all indications point to there being a significant amount of time for the deal to be put in place and before the start of Opening Day.

Thus, this move, for the first time this off-season, truly legitimizes the chances of Jake Peavy coming to the Cubs. This doesn't mean that a Peavy trade is next, or anything of the sort, however the possibility is now out there. Before, I refused to believe whatever rumors were out there about Peavy being traded, but now I'll at least believe these rumors.

The Padres are reportedly over their budget for the 2009 season as well. That could just as easily change if Jeff Moorad is able to purchase that franchise before the start of the season, however if the Padres ownership remains the same until April, things could change.

I'll be keeping a running track of the Cubs' salary on the right side of my blog -- which now includes Michael Wuertz, who signed a one-year deal totaling $1.1MM -- until the sale of the Cubs is made official. If and when Ricketts takes over, there will no longer be such a strict budget for Hendry to work with, so it'll be a moot point.

Ricketts wants to win.

Odds & Ends: Cubs sign three, add two more

2009-01-19T08:00:00.001-06:00

The Cubs made a flurry of moves in the past week. None of the moves were really large enough for me to make any comments, but the moves combined might be worthy of a single post.

Firstly, the Chicago Cubs have traded outfielder Felix Pie as expected. Pie was out of options and was the sixth outfielder on the Cubs' depth chart. By trading him now, the Cubs get lefty Garrett Olsen and minor-league right-hander Hank Williamson from Baltimore. Olsen is expected to compete with Cotts and Stevens for a spot out of the bullpen, assuming Marshall is named the fifth starter.

There are more Jake Peavy rumors, but there's no way that's happening. The Cubs' ownership isn't going to change soon enough and the Padres' ownership situation doesn't make a Peavy trade likely either. Jim Hendry may have amassed enough prospects for Kevin Towers to be interested again, but there's no room in the Cubs' payroll.

Additionally, the Chicago Cubs have signed Kevin Gregg and Ronny Cedeno to one-year deals worth $4.2 million and $822,500 respectively. Also, the team has inked So Taguchi to a minor-league contract that could total as high as $900,000 if all of the incentives are reached.

Unconfirmed reports also suggest that the Cubs are close to a one-year deal with Michael Wuertz.

Cubs-Rox complete pitcher swap

2009-01-06T20:49:00.001-06:00

As expected, the Chicago Cubs have traded Jason Marquis to the Rockies for reliever Luis Vizcaino. In addition, the Cubs have agreed to pay $875,000 of Marquis' contract, which totals $9,875,000 for 2009.

The Cubs bullpen has been depleted by off-season departures and while Vizcaino will join the bullpen, this move doesn't exactly help; it'll force another reliever into the fifth slot of the rotation.

----
Luis Vizcaino
Age: 34
Bats: Right, Throws: Right

2006 ARZ: 65.1 IP; 4-6 record, 25 hld (0/1 sv), 3.58 ERA
2007 NYY: 75.1 IP; 8-2 record, 14 hld (0/3 sv), 4.30 ERA
2008 COL: 46.0 IP; 1-2 record, 1 hld (0/1 sv), 5.28 ERA

Career (10 years): 34-27 record, 98 hld (7/26 sv), 4.34 ERA
----

The bullpen will be headed by Carlos Marmol and Kevin Gregg. Chad Gaudin will also be returning to the team and Mike Wuertz is out of options. I feel that lefties Sean Marshall and Neal Cotts will make the Major League roster, but one as a starter. After Vizcaino, that leaves one more spot.

Jeff Stevens has a good chance to make the roster as the second lefty out of the bullpen, but Piniella has shown in the past that he's not afraid to go with just one southpaw. Jeff Samardzija, Kevin Hart, Angel Guzman, and Randy Wells are at the head of the list of right-handed possibilities.

Milton Bradley signs for three

2009-01-05T16:50:00.002-06:00

The Chicago Cubs have filled their hole in right field. Milton Bradley has agreed to a three-year deal that sends the oft-troubled switch hitter to Wrigley Field. The deal is for a combined $30MM, but that doesn't account for all of the other costs that the Cubs had to pay to free up that kind of money.

As we are all familiar with by now, Jim Hendry and the Cubs have been troubled financially. In order to free up the money, the Cubs had to trade Mark DeRosa to the Indians and have a tentative agreement in place with the Rockies to trade Jason Marquis. This deal is expected to free up between $8.5MM to $9MM and we can expect that amount will make up Bradley and catcher Paul Bako's salary for the 2009 season.

The Bako signing has not yet been announced, but he is expected to sign for $500,000. The details of the Bradley have been announced. He gets a $4MM signing bonus and $5MM for 2009. In 2010 and 2011, he will get the remaining $21MM, while the team has the option of buying out the final year of the contract if Bradley's health is in question.

I know I've been ranting, but let's analyze the series of moves that were put in place for this deal to happen one last time. The team lost (or will lose) Mark DeRosa and Jason Marquis, while gaining Jeff Stevens and Milton Bradley. While it's not clear what kind of a contribution Stevens will make to the Major League club in 2009, it won't be much. To discuss what he might bring in the future is one thing, but it's pretty clear that Hendry was going for it now. So, we ought to analyze this deal based on what the immediate impacts are.

Last season, DeRosa's numbers were: .285, 21 HR, 87 RBI, .376 OBP, .481 slugging.
In comparison, Milton Bradley posted: .321, 22 HR, 77 RBI, .436 OBP, .563 slugging.

(To be fair, Mark DeRosa had a career year. But, Milton Bradley also performed far better in 2008 than in any other season.)

What the Cubs should have done is keep Kosuke Fukudome in right field. Despite all of his struggles last year, Fukudome's total numbers were not completely awful: .257, 10 HR, 58 RBI, .359 OBP, .379 slugging.

While there are slight issues with leaving Fukudome as the every-day right fielder (such as Joey Gathright then has to become the fourth outfielder), the offensive production hasn't changed much; the DeRosa-Bradley comparison is similar, as is the Fukudome-Fontenot (or Miles/Cedeno, if you'd rather) comparison. So, who would you rather have? DeRosa & Fukudome starting? Or Bradley & Fontenot?

While the DeRosa & Fukudome duo is slightly inferior offensively, they more than make up for it defense. That's not the point though; to make all this happen, we had to unload Jason Marquis.

Analysis of Marquis' numbers recently shows that he's a lock for 12 wins and 190 innings. Though, he fell short of both of those marks last year, that was because he made only 28 starts because he was constantly skipped. Now, in his place, the fifth spot in the rotation has to be filled with someone from the bullpen, whether that be Sean Marshall, Jeff Samardzija or Neal Cotts. This has two effects: the number five position in the rotation get considerably weaker (for which I predict a net-loss of four games) and the already-decimated bullpen loses even more depth (another two games?).

Bradley might out-hit DeRosa, but not by six games' worth.

The rotation was supposed to be Zambrano-Lilly-Harden-Dempster-Marquis. Under those circumtances, if MSC (that's Marshall, Samardzija, and/or Cotts) has to spell Rich Harden every now and again, that's not a problem. Now, one member of MSC is forced to fill in permanently, and giving Harden a breather will now require a second player from the MSC trio. Knocking on wood, it's scary to think what might happen if Harden (or anyone else) goes down for any extended period of time.

For all of you who are thinking, "But what about Jake Peavy?"... Forget about it. Jim Hendry has never been completely forth-coming to the fans (like when he fabricated three meetings with Ivan Rodriguez's agent prior to the 2004 season). There never was a realistic chance that we could have gotten Jake Peavy.

Barring an immediate ownership change of the team, Hendry's pocket book has been maxed out for quite some time. This is evident by how exactly the math checks out; Hendry unloaded $8.5MM and added roughly the same amount. We've always suspected that $140MM was the ceiling for Hendry and he's right at that number again. I have been keeping track of the team's payroll on the right-side of the blog. The number shown currently does not yet account for the other 25 players not yet under contract.

The total reads $122.6MM. Gregg, Cedeno, and Wuertz will add about $8-9MM, meaning there is roughly $10MM left for the other 22 players. That sounds about right; the league minimum has been raised to $400,000.

Looking ahead: But dwelling on the past or what could have been has to stop eventually. At some point, we need to look at the team we have right now. Jim Hendry had a 97-win team last year. He made us weaker, but not by much. I still suspect the team to be able to win about 90 games and that should be enough to defend the division championship. After all, the Brewers aren't exactly getting better.

The lineup will look something like Soriano, Theriot, Lee, Bradley, Ramirez, Soto, Fontenot, Johnson, Pitcher. That's not too shabby. We finally have that left-handed (in this case, switch hitting) bat in the middle of our lineup to break up the right handed hitters. However, Lou Piniella should wise up and move Lee out of the three-hole, though it's hard to see who else hits there.

I am advocating that Bradley hits ahead of Ramirez for the same reason why I wanted Fukudome ahead of Ramirez: put that gigantic on-base percentage ahead of a run-producer like Aramis. Moving Bradley, Ramirez, and Soto each up by a slot in the lineup might be the right thing to do, but Piniella probably won't consider hitting Lee sixth.

On a minor note, this move most definitely means the end for Felix Pie. He is out of options and becomes the team's sixth outfielder (behind Soriano, Fukudome, Johnson, Gathright and now Bradley). However, he should still draw moderate interest from other teams. Somebody please clarify if I'm wrong, but if I recall correctly, when a team receives -- via trade -- a player who is out of options but not yet eligible for free agency, that team is given the opportunity to freely add a fourth option year for the new player.

Cubs to add Bradley, Bako

2008-12-31T23:59:00.000-06:00

Bruce Levine is reporting that the Cubs have agreed to terms with Milton Bradley. They are just waiting to clear some payroll before announcing it.

Also, another source indicates that Paul Bako is expected to join the Cubs for about $500,000. If so, Blanco would make the second now-former Cub player that Jim Hendry promised us would return for the 2009 season, but ultimately does not end up returning.

The funny thing is that both Wood and Blanco would have agreed to one-year deals at very reasonable salary levels.

Miles to Cubs; DeRosa, Marquis to be traded

2008-12-31T11:00:00.001-06:00

The Chicago Cubs have continued to clear salary, dumping just under $9MM by trading away utilityman Mark DeRosa and pitcher Jason Marquis.

DeRosa is now property of the Indians, who sent Jeff Stevens and two other minor league pitchers to the Cubs. DeRosa had a career year last year, hitting .285 with 21 homers and 87 RBI, while playing six different defensive positions. DeRosa was projected to be the starting second baseman for the 2009 Chicago Cubs, but that role is now up for grabs. Aaron Miles, who signed a two-year deal worth almost $5MM, is expected to be in competition with Cedeno and Fontenot. Miles hit .317 with the Cardinals last year.

Additionally, the Cubs are expected to announce that they will be sending Jason Marquis and $1MM cash to Colorado for Luis Vizcaino. Marquis posted another solid season in 2008, going 11-9 with a 4.53 ERA, despite making just 28 starts because he was skipped many times in the rotation. Marquis was slated to be the fifth starter in the rotation, but now the team has to fill that spot internally. Sean Marshall heads the list of candidates that also include Angel Guzman, Neal Cotts, Jeff Samardzija, and even Rich Hill.

Jim Hendry appears to be trying to free up money to plug the gaping hole created by Kosuke Fukudome's struggles. The team is set on moving Fukudome to Edmonds' role last year, platooning with Reed Johnson in center field. The problem is that we've got someone making $11.5MM as a part-time player and Hendry is dumping key pieces of the puzzle left and right to open up money to sign Milton Bradley.

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Milton Bradley - Outfielder
Age: 31 (in April)
Bats: Both, Throws: Right

2006 OAK: .276 avg, 14 HR, 52 RBI, .370 OBP; 96 games, 351 AB
2007 total: .306 avg, 13 HR, 37 RBI, .402 OBP; 61 games, 209 AB
2008 TEX: .321 avg, 22 HR, 77 RBI, .436 OBP; 126 games, 414 AB

Career (9 years): .280 avg, 103 HR, 399 RBI, .436 OBP

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While filling the center field spot with someone already in the organization doesn't seem too appealing, it certainly seems like a better option than the mess that has been created now. One year does not change Kosuke Fukudome and I fully expect him to be able to match what my expectations of him were this time last year. That's about a .280 average with 15 homers and 30 doubles, stretched out over an entire season.

We're all so quick to forget that Fukudome hit .310 in the first two months of the season (plus March 31) with 6 homers, 16 doubles, and 2 triples. We all knew that Fukudome was performing over his head at the time and we all expected a downfall when the pitchers in the league would make an adjustment. Of course, we didn't expect him to fall as far as he did, but now that he's had time to make a counter-adjustment and become accilimated to the hype of both the American and Japanese media, I feel he has a good chance to find some sort of happy medium.

However, for the moment, let us make the ridiculous assumption that Fukudome does not rebound and remains a .250 hitter in the Major Leagues. Even so, he would be real close to the offensive production from our current options at second base and would make up the difference on defense. In this scenario, adding Milton Bradley would be a lateral move to keeping Mark DeRosa, meaning that we have unloaded Wood and Marquis for no reason.

Like him or not, Jason Marquis is a lock for 12 wins if he is given the full season to pitch. The same can not be said for any other pitcher within the organization that has a chance to fill Marquis' spot in the rotation. And the combination of Vizcaino, Stevens, and Gregg do not make up for Wood.

Cubs sign Gathright, three others

2008-12-16T19:49:00.005-06:00

I've been busy with finals so I haven't really been able to keep up with the Cubs news.

However, in the past week, the Chicago Cubs have signed outfielder Joey Gathright.

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Joey Gathright - Outfielder
Bats: Left, Throws: Right

2006 combined: 134 G, 383 AB; .238, 1 HR, 41 RBI; 22/31 SB
2007 KC: 74 G, 228 AB; .307, 0 HR, 19 RBI; 9/17 SB
2008 KC: 105 G, 279 AB; .254, 0 HR, 22 RBI; 21/25 SB

Career (5 years): 408 G, 1145 AB; .263, 1 HR, 96 RBI, 78/105 SB
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Gathright, 28 in April, puts the future of Felix Pie with this organization in serious jeopardy. Pie, 24 at the start of next season, is already out of options and was not likely to make the 25-man roster anyway. Pie is a lifetime .223 hitter in the Major Leagues, but could still draw interest from other teams.

Also, the team has avoided arbitration with pitchers Chad Gaudin and Neal Cotts as well as outfielder Reed Johnson, by agreeing to one-year deals with each of them. The team has tendered contracts to their other three arbitration-eligible players, which includes newcomer Kevin Gregg.

Wood not offered arbitration

2008-12-01T22:59:00.000-06:00

The Chicago Cubs have declined to offer arbitration to any of their players, which included Type A players Kerry Wood and Bob Howry. While the team was not expected to offer arbitration to other compensatory free agents such as infielder Daryle Ward and outfielder Jim Edmonds, the team was expected to offer arbitration to at least one player.

As per the collective bargaining agreement, the Cubs would have received two draft picks if Type A free agents that were offered arbitration signed elsewhere, however, the Cubs are now no longer entitled to those draft picks.

The risk in offering salary arbitration was what to do if the players accepted. Wood had shown an interest in signing a one-year deal with the Cubs, a move that Jim Hendry felt he could not afford. Moreover, Wood would have had no-trade rights as a ten-and-five player, meaning that trading him would have been difficult.

To offer a small amount for salary arbitration could have been disasterous, as the players could counter with a ridiculously large offer and still win the arbitration case, and the Cubs appeared they were not willing to offer a larger amount of money. Thus, the team decided to forfeit the opportunity for draft picks and officially cut their ties with Wood.

This move also brings into question how much money the Cubs have available for Jake Peavy. If the ownership of the team is in limbo so much to the point that Hendry couldn't risk Wood accepting arbitration, where is he going to get the cash required to pay Peavy $86MM for the next six years?

Cubs, Dempster agree to four-year deal

2008-11-18T17:19:00.001-06:00

It seems like Jim Hendry truly is going to air it out for the near future.

The Chicago Cubs have signed Ryan Dempster to a four-year deal that is severely backloaded. Next year, Dempster is due only $8MM, leaving some additional room for this off-season. However, Dempster will make $12.5MM next year and $13.5MM in 2010. By then, Soriano will be getting $18MM anually and Zambrano will almost get $18MM, Ramirez will get $16MM and Fukudome will make $13MM. But right now, it looks like we're going to worry about the future in the future.

With Dempster now, I calculate $115.4MM committed for next year. I estimate the six arbitration eligible players to be paid a combined $13MM (nearly half of that to Kevin Gregg). I fully expect Blanco to be re-signed at about $1-2MM and the other 22 players that fill up the roster should get a combined $9MM or so. That means we're knocking on the door of $140MM already. (Note: This is a correction in the math from the previous post.)

Clearly, Hendry seems to have taken himself out of the race for any more big names like Abreu or Peavy. Now, sources report that the Cubs have shifted their focus on Mark Teahen. The Royals, who recently added Coco Crisp, appear to be ready to move him. But how useful will Teahen be? Moneyball compared him to Jason Giambi, but the numbers thus far have not been impressive.

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Mark Teahen - Kansas City Royals
Right Fielder

2005 KC: .244 avg, 7 HR, 55 RBI, .309 OBP; 130 games, 447 AB
2006 KC: .290 avg, 18 HR, 69 RBI, .357 OBP; 109 games, 393 AB
2007 KC: .285 avg, 7 HR, 60 RBI, .353 OBP; 144 games, 544 AB
2008 KC: .255 avg, 15 HR, 59 RBI, .313 OBP; 149 games, 572 AB

Career (4 years): .268 avg, 47 HR, 243 RBI, .332 OBP

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I don't see how that kind of production is better than what we expect out of Fukudome. For whatever reason, Fukudome struggled at the end of the year. However, the things that he showed he was capable of doing in the beginning of the year was absolutely mind-boggling. I can't even begin to count the number of times I asked myself, "Is there anything this guy can't do?"

Kosuke Fukudome is not the .217 hitter we saw in the second-half of the season. We all know that. For 2009, I'm still expecting Fukudome to put up numbers that we all expected him to put up at about this time last year. And I'm talking about the educated projections (.280/.370/.460) accounting for the change in leagues, not just a simple copy and paste from the Japanese numbers.

Playing the Numbers Game a Different Way: Let's assume for the moment that regardless of our right fielder, Carlos Zambrano will win 16 games. Ted Lilly has won 15, 15, and 17 games in his last three seasons, so counting on him for another 15 wins seems reasonable. Jason Marquis (if given the chance) is a lock for 12 wins and expecting 12 wins out of Harden's spot (whether it's actually Harden or someone making a spot start) is not unreasonable either.

That leaves 35 wins between Dempster and the bullpen to get to 90 for the year. That seems like it's do-able, whether it's Teahen in right field or DeRosa in right and Fontenot at second base.

Cubs add closer Kevin Gregg

2008-11-13T14:06:00.002-06:00

The Cubs have added closer Kevin Gregg from the Marlins for minor league reliever Jose Ceda.

Ceda was initally acquired from the Padres in 2006 in a deal that sent Todd Walker to the west coast. In 180 minor league innings, Jose Ceda fanned 227 batters while allowing just 113 hits. He did, however, allow 98 bases on balls.

Kevin Gregg had a great year last year, nailing down 29 saves and 4 holds. He also led the league with 7 relief wins. The bad news is that six-foot-six right hander also lost 8 games and blew 9 saves. The even worse news is that it seems as this may be the end of the line for Kerry Wood in a Cubs' uniform.

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#34 Kerry Wood
Relief Pitcher

1998 CHC: 13-6, 3.40 ERA, 233 SO; 166.2 IP
2000 CHC: 8-7, 4.80 ERA, 132 SO; 137.0 IP
2001 CHC: 12-6, 3.36 ERA, 217 SO; 174.1 IP
2002 CHC: 12-11, 3.67 ERA, 217 SO; 174.1 IP
2003 CHC: 14-11, 3.20 ERA, 266 SO; 211 IP
2004 CHC: 8-9, 3.72 ERA, 144 SO; 140.1 IP
2005 CHC: 4.23 ERA, 4 holds, 77 SO; 66.0 IP
2006 CHC: 4.12 ERA, 13 SO; 19.2 IP
2007 CHC: 3.33 ERA, 24 SO; 24.1 IP
2008 CHC: 34/40 saves, 3.26 ERA, 84 SO; 66.1 IP

Career (10 years): 77-61, 34/40 saves, 3.65 ERA, 1407 SO; 1219.1 IP

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Kevin Gregg comes at a lower price than Kerry Wood. Playing the numbers game that I've been playing all winter, we know that Jim Hendry had about $20-25MM left to spend this off-season. Gregg made $2.5MM last year, but that number is expected to go up with arbitration.

Take Brian Fuentes for example. He went to arbitration before the 2008 season, asking for $6.5MM. The arbitors awarded him $5.05M instead. Clearly, they thought he was worth less than $5,775,000. The numbers in the two seasons prior to this case that Fuentes entered with (50 saves, 8 holds, 13 blown, 3.27 ERA) are similar to those of Kevin Gregg in his most recent two years (61 saves, 10 holds, 13 blown, 3.48 ERA).

Of course, there are other issues to consider when trying to predict Gregg's 2009 salary, certainly. But with all things like ballparks, teams, and baseball inflation aside, it looks like Gregg will not make much more than $6MM next year. That leaves $19MM left.

Ryan Dempster wants a five-year deal worth $70MM. The Cubs would rather pay him $50MM for four years. Assuming that Hendry re-signs Dempster and they come to a compromise of something like $55M for four years, the contract might look like something $10MM-$14.5MM-$15MM-$15.5MM. That leaves under $10MM of the money left and Blanco is certainly going to get his share of that (though that's not very much).

It would leave about $8MM plus whatever we can move of Marquis' salary. Even if we eat half of that, we'd still be recouping $5MM, giving Hendry $13MM to work with. That's enough money to make some noise. Theoretically, Hendry can get Wood with that and create an all-star bullpen. But, it's more likely he could empty the farm and get Peavy or help the offensive with a left-handed corner outfielder like Raul Ibanez.

Correction: I forgot to account for the twenty or so players that are expected to make near the league minimum. While $400,000 per player doesn't seem like much, when there are 20 players, that adds up. It's more likely that Hendry is done after the signing of Dempster.

Awards still piling in for Cubs: After a magical 2008 season in which the team won 97 games, the post-season awards are piling in for the Cubs. Geovany Soto was already awarded Rookie of the Year by a 31-1 vote and now Lou Piniella is manager of the year. Also, Carlos Zambrano, who hit .337 with 4 homers and 14 RBI, is the NL's receipient of the Silver Slugger award at his position.

Soto tops among NL freshmen

2008-11-10T16:01:00.006-06:00

Coming into the season, most expected two Cubs to be atop the Rookie of the Year race when the 2008 season was all said and done. But, as the season progressed, it became increasingly obvious that one rookie was more than holding his end of the bargain and one was not. When the year had actually come to a close, the top three rookies in the league were obvious. And the writers got it right. Sort of.

The overall standings went Soto-Votto-Jurrjens, but not everyone voted that way. One voter went Votto-Soto-Bruce (presumably) and on the end of the spectrum was Soto-Fukudome-Votto. In fact, two people didn't place Joey Votto on the ballot anywhere and three voted for a non-rookie. In one of the more crystal clear races, the writers managed to spray the entire dartboart. Only 16 of the 32 voters made the obvious choice.

While the Rookie of the Year race was obvious in both leagues, I figured that if there was going to be any question in one of the leagues, it would have come from the American League. At least there, the favorite is a corner infielder and the runner-up is a middle infielder from a championship team. Yet, no one went Ramirez-Longoria in the Junior circuit.

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Geovany Soto - Catcher
Chicago Cubs

2008 (494 AB): .285, 23 HR, 86 RBI, .364 OBP, 35 doubles, 2 triples

Joey Votto - First Baseman
Cincinnati Reds

2008 (526 AB): .297, 24 HR, 84 RBI, .368 OBP, 32 doubles, 3 triples
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After you first look at these numbers and are surprised to see that Soto had 2 triples (and then you remember than one of his homers was an inside-the-parker), the reaction may be to compare the numbers and think it's a close race. Consider that Votto had 32 more at-bats (about 9 games) and Soto pulls ahead as a slight favorite.

But, that's not the main difference. Other than his offensive numbers and stellar defense, Joey Votto doesn't have much more to add to the argument. Geovany Soto has tons more.

He is a catcher that appeared in 141 games. Votto plays a position where 25/85 has come to be expected. Soto handled the second-best staff in the league with complete confidence and relative ease. Soto carried his team -- the best team in the league -- on his shoulders, both on and off the field, for days at a time. On a team full of leaders like Lee, Ramirez, Zambrano, and Howry, the clubhouse still looked to Geovany Soto at certain times. After the trade deadlines passed, the Reds clubhouse was led by "veterans" like Corey Patterson and Paul Bako.

There's no doubting that Geovany Soto was the overwhelming favorite in this race. But, Votto's numbers are impressive and should be worth something. That something should have been an unanimous second-place finish. Instead, Jair Jurrjens managed to steal some second-place votes from Votto.

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Jair Jurrjens - Starting Pitcher
Atlanta Braves

2008 (188 IP): 31 starts, 13-10, 3.68 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 139 K
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From Jurrjens' numbers, it's a wonder how guys like Bruce and Fukudome ended up ahead of Jurrjens on some ballots, but taking into account his home ballpark makes it equally puzzling as to how six people ranked Jurrjens right behind Soto.

One thing is for certain though. Soto was the Rookie of the Year in 2008 and has the potential for a special career ahead of him. By the time the 2009 season starts, it won't matter that Soto did not win unanimously or that he even won at all.

But until then, congratulations Geo! You certainly deserved it.

Braves, Cubs in pursuit of Peavy: The Cubs and Braves still appear to be the front-runners for the Jake Peavy sweepstakes. However, there are two major obstacles standing in the Cubs' way. The most obvious is the price tag that Peavy brings. If we believe that Hendry has only a limited amount of money to work with, blowing a good chunk of that on Peavy doesn't seem very efficient. The major drawing factor, however, is the Peavy is only owed $8MM in 2009, which is nearly $2MM less than Jason Marquis.

But, Peavy's salary balloons after 2009, going to $15MM in 2010 and as high as $22MM in 2013. The contracts of Alfonso Soriano and Carlols Zambrano are similarly backloaded and unless the new owner(s) plan(s) to rival the Yankees in spending, the team could be in a horrible situation in the near future. But, there also exists a more immediate concern.

Jim Hendry appears to be interested in acquiring both Peavy and Dempster, who has decided to test the open market. Dempster is expected to get a $70MM offer for five years from the Yankees and while he might be rumored to be giving the Cubs a discount, he has also stated that he would be less willing to take a pay cut if the Cubs add Peavy as well. So how much does that leave for Wood? The team can ill-afford to lose Wood without adding a comparable closer. The bullpen, which was a strength in the recent past, is now a complete detriment to the team after Carlos Marmol.

Chances are, however, that it might be academic. The Padres are looking for major-league-ready pitchers in return. The Braves are willing to part with Jo-Jo Reyes and/or Charlie Morton. The Cubs would have to get another team that's willing to give up young pitching, involved in three-way deal.

Maddux set to retire

2008-11-06T10:02:00.000-06:00

I guess I knew that Greg Maddux wouldn't pitch forever and that he was close to the end of his career, but when I read this was the end of the line for him, it was the second time in a month that the game I love so much brought me to tears.

He is, without a doubt, the greatest pitcher that I've ever seen and he accomplished all of that with so much class and dignity. Unlike some of the other "stars" in the game, Maddux was always quick to deflect praise onto his teammates and take the blame for all things. Maddux's mind worked in ways that we can't even imagine. Sure, most of us are able to remember how a pitcher retired a certain batter in the last at-bat, but Maddux remembers every single pitch in previous at-bats and could probably remember specific things that happened more than, say, five years ago. He's taught all of us so much about the game and the entire sport owes him.

Maddux used his ability to understand how the game works, not a 100-mph fastball, to achieve extraordinary accomplishments. To win even ten games in seventeen non-consecutive seasons would be unbelieveable, but he won fifteen games in seventeen straight years and reached double digits twenty straight times.

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#31 Greg Maddux - Pitcher
Chicago Cubs, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Diego Padres

1986 CHC: 2-4, 31.0 IP, 5.52 ERA, 1.77 WHIP
1987 CHC: 6-14, 155.2 IP, 5.61 ERA, 1.64 WHIP
1988 CHC: 18-8, 249.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
1989 CHC: 19-12, 238.1 IP, 2.95 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
1990 CHC: 15-15, 237.0 IP, 3.46 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
1991 CHC: 15-11, 263.0 IP, 3.35 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
1992 CHC: 20-11, 268.0 IP, 2.18 ERA, 1.01 WHIP (Cy Young)
1993 ATL: 20-10, 267.0 IP, 2.36 ERA, 1.05 WHIP (Cy Young)
1994 ATL: 16-6, 202.0 IP, 1.56 ERA, 0.90 WHIP (Cy Young - unanimous)
1995 ATL: 19-2, 209.2 IP, 1.63 ERA, 0.81 WHIP (Cy Young - unanimous)
1996 ATL: 15-11, 245.0 IP, 2.72 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
1997 ATL: 19-4, 232.2 IP, 2.20 ERA, 0.95 WHIP
1998 ATL: 18-9, 251.0 IP, 2.22 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
1999 ATL: 19-9, 219.1 IP, 3.57 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
2000 ATL: 19-9, 249.1 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
2001 ATL: 17-11, 233.0 IP, 3.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP
2002 ATL: 16-6, 199.1 IP, 2.62 ERA, 1.20 WHIP
2003 ATL: 16-11, 218.1 IP, 3.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
2004 CHC: 16-11, 212.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
2005 CHC: 13-15, 225.0 IP, 4.24 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
2006 CHC/LAD: 15-14, 210.0 IP, 4.20, 1.22 WHIP
2007 SDP: 14-11, 198.0 IP, 4.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
2008 SDP/LAD: 8-13, 194.0 IP, 4.22, 1.21 WHIP

Career (23 years): 355-227, 5008.1 IP, 3.16 ERA, 1.14 WHIP

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In the prime of his career, his numbers are literally mind-numbing. Through 1994-95, Maddux threw 411 innings and posted an ERA under 1.60! He threw 200 or more innings 18 times and 230 or more innings 11 times.

Maddux was a complete baseball player. In today's era of specialization and lack of attention to detail, Maddux still played the game the right way and did all the things he was supposed to. He was one of the greatest bunters in the history of the game, converting 180 sacrifices successfully and was unargueably the best defensive fielder at his position, now with a record 18 Gold Gloves.

Maddux finished his career strong, throwing 194 innings in his final season, while posting a 4.22 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. It's clear that Maddux could have continued pitching longer and still had many wins left in him, but in a final act of unselfishness, he chose to walk away. Maddux didn't wait until he became an old washed-up has-been that nobody wanted and he didn't demand respect until years after his prime. He walked away from the sport under his own terms.

In five years, Cooperstown should be lucky to have the privilege of adding a man like him. Of course, Maddux won't see it that way.

Cubs looking into Peavy

2008-11-04T12:14:00.000-06:00

The Chicago Cubs are rumored to be one of the two front-runners for ace pitcher Jake Peavy. The Padres are desperately trying to deal him, because Peavy is eligible for arbitration and also set to make $52MM in the three years following.

Rumored to be part of the deal are outfielder Felix Pie and infielder Ronny Cedeno. The bigger concern, however, is not what we would have to part with to land Jake Peavy, but rather how much money we are taking on. With the ownership status of the team still in disarray, I would be surprised to see Hendry get more than $140MM to work with this season. Nearly $120MM of that is already committed and whatever is left should be prioritized for Wood and Blanco, both of whom are free agents.

Backloading too many contracts could cause issues for the team in the coming years. Take, for example, the year 2010. The Cubs are committed to pay an aging Soriano $18 MM, Zambrano nearly $18 MM, Ramirez nearly $16MM, and Fukudome $13MM. While it seems like the answer now, if the Cubs add too much payroll for the future now, we could be looking at a very ugly situation a few years down the road.

Obviously, the Cubs will not be getting both Dempster and Peavy, but I think that neither is the right choice here. Ryan Dempster is coming off of a career year which he will not be able to replicate again. With the prices of free-agent pitchers expected to sky-rocket this off-season, it's very possible that the Yankees could offer Dempster something like $42MM for the next three years, especially if the Brewers can manage to hang onto Sabathia. Getting into a bidding war and overpaying for Dempster is not good and accepting Peavy's $23MM obligation for 2013 doesn't seem smart either. Especially when there are so many options within the organization.

And let me say this one more time. Moving Jason Marquis doesn't accomplish anything. He's clearly the best number four starter in the league by a long shot and a guaranteed lock for 12 wins and 190 innings (if Piniella doesn't skip him every possible chance). Yes, he's set to make nearly $10MM, but it's not like we can unload all of that if we move him. Unless the Padres eat a substantial portion for Peavy, there's no reason why we should start eating Marquis' contract in a time when the team's payroll is severely limited.

Rays join Phils as league champions

2008-10-20T11:47:00.003-05:00

The pennant races are now over. Only the World Series remains.

Showing that the postseason is all a matter of who gets hot at the right time, the Philadelphia Phillies stormed out of the regular season, winning 13 of their final 16 games and overtook the New York Mets in the final moments of the season once again. Last year, the Cinderella story that was the Colorado Rockies made quick work of the Phillies in the first round. However, this year, the team that I would argue was the best in the league going into the playoffs ended up being the team standing at the end.

The World Series this year isn't without a Cinderella team though. In fact, the biggest Cinderella of them all won the pennant in the American League. A team that had never won more than 70 games and finished above fifth place just once in their entire existence, stormed into the best division in baseball, won 97 games, and basically led the division wire-to-wire. Many thought that the Rays had a chance to be real good this year. Few even thought the Rays had a chance to win the division. But, no one expected this.

The Tampa Bay Rays truly are the cinderella story. After beating the White Sox 3-1 in the division series, it looked like Tampa Bay was en route to a 4-1 win in the league championship. After all, they were winning 7-0 in Game 5 with just seven outs to go. But, Boston -- like they have for the last two times they were faced with the situation -- performed with their backs up against the wall. The Red Sox stormed back to win Game 5 and put together another come-from-behind win in Game 6. And when Boston jumped in front 1-0 on Pedroia's first-inning homer in the deciding game of the championship, many had Tampa dead and buried.

But, the Rays stepped up and proved their doubters wrong one last time. And now, they're in the World Series.

Almost the entire country was behind Colorado in the Series last year. The Rox stormed through the playoffs and it would've been a great story if they won the World Series. But as it turned out, the Red Sox were the better team by far. And that meant more than momentum or destiny.

This year will be the same. As much as the Rays have impressed and as much as we all want it to happen, Tampa Bay is completely outmatched. They say good pitching stops good hitting, but the Rays' staff isn't good enough to hold down those Philly bats.

2008 Season in Review

2008-10-09T09:33:00.014-05:00

Here are some of the greatest plays of the 2008 season.

March 31: Kosuke Fukudome homers off Gagne to tie the score at 3.
April 9: Aramis Ramirez gives the Cubs a 4-2 lead in the 14th.
April 25: Felipe Lopez is robbed by Reed Johnson.
April 30: Cubs score 19 against Brewers, behind Ramirez, Soto, and Cedeno.
May 12: Cubs follow sixth-run fifth with five-run sixth.
May 29: Alfonso Soriano drives home Fontenot to sweep Dodgers.
May 30: Jim Edmonds homers for the first time as a Cub, leading the way to a miraculous comeback against Colorado.
June 11: Ryan Dempster goes the distance to beat Atlanta.
June 20: Aramis Ramirez's game-tying homer and clutch pitching by Wood sets up the game-winner vs Sox.
June 21: Jim Edmonds homers twice in nine-run fourth vs Sox.
June 22: Ryan Dempster leads Cubs to sweep over Chicago.
July 12: Reed Johnson's walk-off saves Harden's debut.
July 24: Reed Johnson extends lead over Arizona with grand slam.
July 27: Edmonds lays out to seal Samardzija's first Major League save.
July 31: Behind Edmonds' slam and Harden's gem, Cubs sweep Brewers. Gagne and Fielder respond.
August 6: Mark DeRosa's slam starts eight-run frame against Houston's Backe.
August 8: Henry Blanco singles to beat Cardinals in 11 innings.
August 27: Geovany Soto drives in seven runs vs Pirates.
August 28: Aramis Ramirez turns the tables on Phillies with late-inning slam.
September 6: Alfonso Soriano homers not once, not twice, but three times in Cincinnati.
September 10: Ted Lilly runs over Molina at home plate.
September 14: Carlos Zambrano tosses first Cubs no-hitter since Milt Pappas. (Listen to Pat and Ron call it.)
September 18: Soto's late-inning homer allows for Lee's walk-off vs Crew.
September 20: Lilly's squeeze plates key insurance run as Cubs celebrate another division championship.
September 22: Jason Marquis' grand slam helps secure league's best record.
September 25: Micah Hoffpauir collects five hits at Shea.
October 1: Mark DeRosa puts the Cubs on the board in Game 1.

Let me know if I'm missing any key plays. I'll put them up.

Cubs pick up $7M option on Harden

2008-10-08T13:38:00.001-05:00

The Chicago Cubs have deemed Rich Harden healthy and have picked up the $7M option on his contract.

Harden was acquired from Oakland last July, along with right-hander Chad Gaudin, in exchange for Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson, and minor-league catcher Josh Donaldson. In 12 starts with the Cubs, Harden went 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. Over 71 innings, Harden allowed 39 hits and struck out 89 batters. Clearly, if Harden can remain healthy, he is worth the money.

With Zambrano, Lilly, and Marquis returning, Harden now completes 80% of the rotation for 2009. If Hendry can resign Dempster like he is expecting to do, that will bring back all five starters from last year. However, if the price tag on Ryan Dempster is too high, the team may open up competition for the fifth starting job. Lefties Sean Marshall, Rich Hill, and Neal Cotts would be the front runners.

I'm keeping a running total of the salary commitments for the Cubs on the right side of the blog. At the moment, $107M is going to ten guys currently under contract for 2009, but the Cubs will be required to pay more. The Cubs still own rights to 23 players on the Major League roster and up to eight of them could be eligible for salary arbitration. At minimum, the Cubs would have to pay $400K to each not eligible for arbitration, and anywhere from $1M to $5M for each arbitration eligible player. That could lock up another $18-20M.

Jim Hendry is expected to be given a budget of approximately $140M for the 2009 season. Of course, the ownership status of the team is still up for grabs so that number could fluctuate in the future. But for now, he has about $15M of money to play with. It doesn't seem like it'll be enough for Blanco, Wood, Dempster, and any players outside of the organization that Hendry wants to bring in.

Hendry may decide to buyout Blanco's contract and re-sign him at a lesser rate. That saves a bit of money, but keep in mind that wouldn't add anything back to the $15M figure I came up with. That number is before we pay Blanco, so whatever we decide to do with him, that number will shrink even more.

Marmol OK after car wreck

2008-10-07T16:15:00.000-05:00

After arriving home in the Dominican Republic for the winter, Carlos Marmol was involved in an automobile accident. He suffered minor lacerations and bruising, but nothing serious. Marmol received seven stitches on his forehead for his injuries.

"Out of precaution they did different studies on my body, and I don't have any kind of serious injury," the Cubs' reliever wrote in a message to the Associated Press.

Since converting to the bullpen for the Cubs, Carlos Marmol has been absolutely lights out. Over the past two years, Marmol has converted 8 saves and 46 holds, while blowing just 3 save chances. In 156.2 innings, Marmol has allowed just 37 earned runs, 81 hits, while fanning 210.

Cubs swept out of playoffs

2008-10-04T22:41:00.005-05:00

It's a little different this year.

Last year, the team rallied from a deficit of eight and a half games in the middle of the season to win the division and make the playoffs. Last year, the team didn't know what expect, coming off the heals of a 96-loss season that left the Cubs dead last in the league. Sure, we had Alfonso Soriano, Lou Piniella, and others added to the team to help out. But no one really had the expectation to win.

2008 was the Cubs chance to go deep into the NL playoffs. Coming into the year, the team was the best in the division. Throughout the year, the Cubs seemingly had many signs of magic in the air. Reed Johnson, who the fourth place Jays didn't want, signed on with the Cubs and hit .303 with 21 doubles, 6 homers, and 50 RBI in just 333 AB. Jim Edmonds was released from a team that finished with 99 losses, but hit 19 homers and drove in 49 RBI in just 250 times at-bat for Chicago.

Ryan Dempster, who was essentially kicked out of the closer's spot, won 17 games with a 2.96 ERA, putting his name in the thick of things for the NL Cy Young award. Ted Lilly topped his performance from last year, posting a career-high 17 wins. And Kerry Wood stayed healthy for the most part and was just about everything the Cubs fans had hoped for, converting 34 of 40 saves and making the all-star team. In fact, the Cubs sent eight players to the all-star team.

Clearly, this team was better than the team from 2007. But that didn't change the amount of effort that the team put forth in the postseason.

After going just 2-for-23 (.087) with runners in scoring position in 2007, the Cubs improved only marginally going 5-for-27 (.185) with two of those hits coming long after the outcome of game two was decided. Alfonso Soriano followed his 2-for-14 (.143) in the 2007 playoffs with a 1-for-14 (.071) performance, and along with Lee and Ramirez, he matched the RBI production from a year ago: 0.

For anyone who was watching the games, it's obvious what the issue is. It's not a slump and it's only partially due to really good pitching. It's a lack of effort, plain and simple.

The Chicago Cubs committed six errors in the series. Ramirez's was due to pure laziness, DeRosa's can be attributed to ego and greed, and the four were a result of a lack of focus. Throughout the series, the team consistenly threw to the wrong base (DeRosa on the error, Zambrano on a bunt, Fukudome on an RBI single just to name a few) and never really had the right approach at the plate. Each player was trying to be the hero, nobody cared about the well-being of the team.

I supported this team through the Riggleman and Baylor eras, when the team was bad. But, it's really hard to get behind a team that doesn't try, like the jokers for the 2004 season and the playoff performances in the last two years. Don't get me wrong, I'll be lining up next April to take my licks all over again. And no matter how many of you have sworn off the Cubs, if you were a true fan, you won't be able to help but keep crawling back for more. But it's really frustrating to have to follow a team that doesn't put forth its best effort.

Cubs turn to Harden in must-win

2008-10-03T23:59:00.000-05:00

If Lou Piniella is referred to the skipper of the team, the Chicago Cubs might as well be a ship.

And that ship is sinking fast. Much like the feeling in our hearts. Since the beginning of the Wild Card era, sixteen teams trailed 0-2 in the NLDS. Only three teams were able to force game four and no one was even able to force a fifth game, let alone win it.

So what chance do we have? It's not an impossible task. The Yankees, down 0-2 against Harden's Athletics in the 2001 division series, managed not only to rally past Oakland, but also past Seattle to another pennant. In 2003, the Marlins down 1-3 against the Cubs in the LCS also pulled off three straight wins to avoid elimination and of course, the 2004 Red Sox climbed out of a 0-3 hole against New York to snatch the AL flag.

First thing is first though and that is game three with Rich Harden and Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda is a tad more hittable than the other two Dodger pitchers we've faced so far, but the Cubs bats still need to show up. Not to take anything away from Lowe or Billingsley, but the way the Cubs offense approached those pitchers, anyone could have dominated.

For that reason, Lou Piniella is going to shake up the lineup again. This time rookie flop Kosuke Fukudome will be removed from the lineup all together. If DeRosa is at all close to 100%, he would play right field and Fontenot would play second. Piniella has also considered putting Johnson in right field, but that means that we'll lose another bat from the left side. Another concern is where to the lefties. At this point, I don't want to move Theriot from the two hole. But then that leaves fifth as the earliest place we can put a lefty. Are we prepared to hit Edmonds there?

Whatever the lineup looks like, one thing is for certain. The Cubs can't win three games on Saturday. But for a team that constantly is trying to hit the five-run homerun, will they realize that? The first step is snapping an eight-game postseason losing streak and forcing a game four. What will be the goal in game four? If we start thinking about that now, there won't be a game four.

For at least one more day, there will be Cubs baseball this year. So, Cubs fans everywhere are sending an S.O.S. to Rich Harden.

Save our season.

LA trounces Cubs, take 2-0 lead home

2008-10-02T22:03:00.006-05:00

There's a difference between a team that's bad and a team that's not trying.

The approach from the very beginning of the game was horrible. For a team that played like a team so well during the regular season, that mentality just shut down. Each player wanted to be the hero and individual greed took precedence over actually trying.

Alfonso Soriano swinging at the first pitch in the bottom of the first inning should have been a sign. Sure, he singled into left field, but then Ryan Theriot forgot his role. After Soriano advanced into scoring position, Theriot -- who had been the poster boy of hitting the ball to right field -- started to think he was Babe Ruth.

The laziness continued on defense in the nightmarish second inning. Joe Torre beat the Cubs on the Loney hit-and-run, but Theriot seemingly jogged over to the ball. It went off his bare hand and the Dodgers had the first two runners on. Mark DeRosa had a chance to limit the damage even after the bobble on his own grounder, but DeRosa cared more about personal accolade than team play. Attempting to make a miraculous impossible play, DeRosa let the flood gates open.

Derrek Lee, who has been useless all year, kicked another potential inning-ending double play ball and Rafael Furcal saw that our infield was confused and laid down a bunt single to drive in a run and more importantly, keep the inning alive. When was the last time we saw any of our players with a complex thought like that in a game that mattered?

In the fourth inning, Aramis Ramirez committed an error because he was too good for fundamentals. Instead of getting in front of a grounder, Ramirez tried to make a backhanded pick, which resulted in the third error of the game for the Cubs. In the sixth inning, Mark DeRosa made a similar play on DeWitt's grounder. But, he made the play, so no one else even noticed.

Whether it's Carlos Zambrano throwing to the wrong base on a bunt by Billingsley, Neal Cotts walking the batter that he was brought in to face, or Jim Edmonds posing on a pair of warning track fly balls (three, if you count yesterday), it's clear that the Cubs just aren't focused. Despite the fact that we've been trailing by multiple runs all game, Billingsley got through six innings on just 79 pitches -- and 12 of those pitches were to Zambrano.

When the Marlins came back to beat us in 2003, I said that it was because Florida wanted it more than we did. Last year? It was the same story; the Diamondbacks came to play and we didn't. Now, it looks like we're singing the familiar song. We've lost eight consecutive postseason games and have been outscored 55-20 during that span.

Before this game, Mark DeRosa had the audacity to say that game two was a must-win. So, now what? Is the team going to go out there and try to win all three games at once, like he literally admitted to trying to do last year? Or rather yet, will they quit in Los Angeles?

Dodgers take game one, behind Lowe, Loney

2008-10-01T20:28:00.008-05:00

Everything that could go wrong for the Cubs did go wrong.

Whether it was Jim Edmonds taking a horrible route on what eventually was ruled a double by DeWitt in the eighth inning, Alfonso Soriano looking like a lost puppy at the plate, or the fact that Derek Lowe managed to draw two walks, it didn't seem like the Cubs came ready to play. Ryan Dempster walked a season-high seven batters and that eventually came back to hurt him.

The start of the game looked good. Manny Ramirez hit into an inning-ending double play in the top of the first inning and the Cubs jumped to a 2-0 lead on a DeRosa homerun just inside the foul pole in the second. But fortunes quickly changed. Dempster played with fire in the third inning and escaped, but when he tried his luck again in the fifth inning, he got burned.

With two outs in the fifth, Dempster was ahead 0-2 against Ramirez, but could not finish him off. Ramirez eventually drew the walk and extended the inning. After another walk to Ethier, Dempster was again ahead 0-2 on Loney, but the Cubs' right-hander failed one more time to get out of the inning. Loney delivered with a grand slam and put the Dodgers ahead by a pair.

The main blow was a subtle one though. Aramis Ramirez doubled to lead off the sixth inning and the Cubs looked to be clawing back at the two-run Dodger advantage. But after Geovany Soto worked a 2-0 count, Derek Lowe rebounded by striking out the Cubs catcher. Edmonds and DeRosa were unable to knock in Aramis and Manny Ramirez hit a mammoth homerun the very next half inning. Whatever momentum the Cubs had and whatever wind was in the sails quickly disappeared, and the Cubs were flat for the rest of the ballgame.

And while game one might have been out of reach, the fact that the Cubs quit in the final innings of the game could hurt even more. Manager Joe Torre was intending to use Takashi Saito in the ninth inning with a four-run lead, but Russell Martin's homerun in the top half of the frame kept Saito out of the game. There had been questions as to whether or not the Dodger closer could go on back-to-back days, but now the discussion has become moot; Saito will be ready and available in game two.

Now, the Cubs must rely on a very shaky Carlos Zambrano to earn a split before heading west.

Sox to play in October, Hoffpauir not

2008-09-30T21:55:00.000-05:00

And then there were eight.

The Chicago White Sox beat three different teams in three consecutive days to make the playoffs as the champions of the American League Central and they'll get their series with the Rays underway on October 2. It looks like the Sox caught a major break in drawing Tampa Bay for the first round. Meanwhile, the LA Angels will play host to the defending World Champion Boston Red Sox.

Both National League series will be underway later today as well. Philadelphia hosts the wild card winning Brewers and the other Los Angeles team kicks off their postseason against the other Chicago team. However, the Cubs will be without Micah Hoffpauir.

The rosters shrink back to twenty-five for the postseason and it appears that outfielder Micah Hoffpauir will not make the cut. Neither will pitchers Kevin Hart or Michael Wuertz or catcher Koyie Hill. But all four of those players will report to the Cubs' Spring Training camp in Mesa, Arizona, to continue working out. If the Cubs make it past the first round, the team will be allowed to make roster moves position-for-position.

With the Cubs taking eleven pitchers, two catchers, the exclusion of Micah Hoffpauir opens up the roster spot for outfielder Felix Pie. We thought Hoffpauir would get in, because he's a better ballplayer than Pie, but the decision makes sense. Daryle Ward can do exactly what Hoffpauir does, but only better. Meanwhile, we don't have anyone like Pie that can be used as a magic silver bullet on the bases or in the outfield. I guess this also speaks volumes to what Piniella thinks about Soriano's ability to play defense.

Playoff opponent, roster clear

2008-09-28T18:12:00.002-05:00

The Chicago Cubs will face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the first round of the NL playoffs.

This came as a result of the Cubs failing to play the spoiler role against division rivals Milwaukee and the fact that the Marlins, for the second consecutive season, knocked the Mets out of playoff contention on the final day of the season. The Brewers will play the NL East champion Phillies and the NL West champions come to Wrigley Field.

Judging by the way that Piniella has been using his roster in the final week of the season, the playoff roster also appears to be clear. The twenty-five guys he is leaning towards taking are the exact twenty-five guys I would take.

PITCHERS (11):
Neal Cotts (9 holds, 4.41 ERA)
Ryan Dempster (17-6, 2.96 ERA)
Rich Harden (5-1, 1.78 ERA)
Bob Howry (15 holds, 5.35 ERA)
Ted Lilly (17-9, 4.09 ERA)
Carlos Marmol (30 holds, 2.68 ERA)
Jason Marquis (11-9, 4.53)
Sean Marshall (2 holds, 3.74 ERA)
Jeff Samardzija (3 holds, 2.28 ERA)
Kerry Wood (34 saves, 3.26 ERA)
Carlos Zambrano (14-6, 3.91 ERA)

CATCHERS (2):
Henry Blanco (.297, 3 HR, 12 RBI)
Geovany Soto (.285, 23 HR, 86 RBI)

INFIELDERS (8):
Ronny Cedeno (.269, 2 HR, 28 RBI)
Mark DeRosa (.285, 21 HR, 87 RBI)
Mike Fontenot (.305, 9 HR, 40 RBI)
Micah Hoffpauir (.362, 25 HR, 100 RBI in 290 AB at Iowa)
Derrek Lee (.291, 20 HR, 90 RBI)
Aramis Ramirez (.289, 27 HR, 111 RBI)
Ryan Theriot (.307, 1 HR, 38 RBI)
Daryle Ward (.216, 4 HR, 17 RBI)

OUTFIELDERS (4):
Jim Edmonds (.256, 19 HR, 49 RBI in 250 AB with Cubs)
Kosuke Fukudome (.257, 10 HR, 58 RBI)
Reed Johnson (.306, 6 HR, 50 RBI)
Alfonso Soriano (.280, 29 HR, 75 RBI)

This leaves guys like RHP Chad Gaudin and OF Felix Pie off of the playoff roster. Of course, if the Cubs are able to advance past the first round of the playoffs, the team may make changes in their roster position-by-position. This probably means that Pie would not make the roster -- Edmonds, Fukudome, Johnson, or Soriano would have to leave -- but Chad Gaudin has a very good chance of getting in later.

The Phillies and the Brewers both have good left-handed hitters that need to be taken care of. Therefore, I don't see either Cotts or Marshall being removed from the roster for the second round. However, if a middle reliever (like Samardzija) is overworked in the first round or if Bob Howry continues his inconsistency, Piniella make look to add a fresh arm to the bullpen. If Gaudin is 100% and can show that he has returned to the form that he was before his back problems, Gaudin would be the first guy the Cubs turn to.

But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves; neither the baseball gods nor the Dodgers would appreciate that. Here are the matchups for the first three games of the series.

GAME 1: Derek Lowe (14-11, 3.24) at Ryan Dempster (17-6, 2.96)
GAME 2: Chad Billingsley (16-10, 3.14) at Carlos Zambrano (14-6, 3.91)
GAME 3: Rich Harden (5-1, 1.78) at Hiroki Kuroda (9-10, 3.73)

If the series would require a fourth game, Piniella would turn to Ted Lilly (17-9, 4.09). Joe Torre, however, isn't quite certain who his fourth starter would be. If he's winning 2-1, he'll probably go with the veteran Greg Maddux (8-13, 4.22). If he's facing elimination, he may bring Derek Lowe back on short rest.

The pitching matchups seems to give a slight edge to the Cubs. However, the Dodger pitchers have had success against the Cubs. Lowe, in two starts this year, is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA and Billingsley has managed to keep the Cubs' big bats in check. Soriano, Lee, Ramirez, and Edmonds are a combined 5-for-32 (.156) lifetime against the big Dodger righty.

So what does the lineup look like for game one? It would be very easy to go into auto-pilot and peg Jim Edmonds as the starting center fielder against the right-handed Lowe. But, for whatever reason, Reed Johnson is .364 (albeit just 11 AB) in his career against Lowe and Edmonds is 5-for-30 (.167). Despite the fact that Edmonds has nearly three times more at-bats against Lowe, both center field options have the same number of doubles (1) and RBI (5) off Joe Torre's ace.

LF Soriano (R)
SS Theriot (R)
1B Lee (R)
3B Ramirez (R)
CF Johnson (R)
C Soto (R)
2B DeRosa (R)
RF Fukudome (L)
P Dempster (R)

The problem with this lineup should be immediately obvious. With Fukudome as the lone lefty, things get way too easy for Saito and Broxton. One option for Piniella is just to keep his lefties on the bench for those situations, but knowing Lou, he'll shuffle the starting lineup.

DeRosa is lifetime 1-for-8 against Lowe and Fontenot is 3-for-5 with a double. Is that enough of a sample size to justify sitting a man who is literally having the season of a lifetime? Then again, Fontenot isn't doing too shabby himself this year.

But, replacing DeRosa with Fontenot doesn't immediately solve all the problems. Where will Fontenot hit? Surely, Fontenot won't be able to split up the right-handed bats and in the heart of the lineup. Fukudome isn't exactly going to get moved up to fifth or sixth in the order either. So, that still leaves the clump of righties together, right?

Well, maybe not.

LF Soriano (R)
2B Fontenot (L)
1B Lee (R)
3B Ramirez (R)
CF Johnson (R)
C Soto (R)
RF Fukudome (L)
SS Theriot (R)
P Dempster (R)

Piniella has experimented with dropping Theriot down in the order when necessary. Now, I know that Theriot can hold his own against righties. I know that he has the sixth best average in the league. But, it's not Theriot that I'm worried about. Do we buy into the fact that Lowe could get himself into a groove if he sees too many batters standing on one side of the plate?

So we take another look at Edmonds. But then you realize that he's logged 30 at-bats against Lowe and gone just .167/.194/.300. It's not like it was one bad game against the pitcher; Lowe has completely owned Edmonds.

What are the other options? Who on the bench are lefties? Hoffpauir and Ward. Both could play right field and that allows the right field position to move up in the order, providing a convenient break among the right handed sluggers. But, that's probably not worth losing Fukudome's glove. Besides, it's not like we're an extra lefty, just a better one.

Many times under the Dusty Baker regime, I wished that I was the manager; I felt that I could push the buttons better. However, things have changed -- especially this year. Lou Piniella has handled the team so well (97-64, in fact) and I trust him with the team more than I trust myself.

I've said it before and I'll say it again. I'm glad that I'm not the one that has to make the tough decisions.

AL Central Race still alive: With seven of the eight playoff teams in baseball decided, the Chicago White Sox have managed to hold off the Twins after 161 games. Now, the Sox must play a make-up against the Tigers to tie Minnesota in the standings and force a one-game playoff. If Chicago can beat former teammate Freddy Garcia (1-1, 4.50) behind Gavid Floyd's (16-8, 3.91) effort, then the Twins and the White Sox would play a one-game playoff on Tuesday. If not, the Twins will be crowned kings of the Central.

The playoff, if necessary, will be at US Cellular Field on Tuesday. John Danks (11-9, 3.47) would toe the rubber for the home team and Nick Blackburn (11-10, 4.14) would pitch for Minnesota.

Two days left, five teams alive

2008-09-27T12:30:00.003-05:00

With just two days remaining in the regular season, there are five teams left in the playoff hunt. Three of them are from the NL and are battling for two spots and two of them are in a heated race for the AL Central crown.

Yesterday, the Brewers and Phillies both won, greatly improving their chances to advance to the playoffs as the Wild Card and NL East Champion entries, respectively. The Mets loss put them two games behind Philadelphia and a game off the pace with the Brewers, who will have Sheets and Sabathia going in the final two games of the season, if they mean anything.

The Phillies magic number is 1. They can clinch the division tonight with either a win or a Mets loss. The Brewers can clinch today as well, if they can knock off our Cubs for the second straight day and the Marlins take care of business against the Mets. However, it's equally possible that the Mets win and the Brewers lose, which would tie up the Wild Card race with just one game to go.

If the season ended now, we would play the Dodgers, who went 14-5 in September before clinching the division championship. Right now, we should focus our attention on knocking the Brewers out for two reasons.

The most obvious reason is to keep Milwaukee out of the playoffs. While there is no possibility that we play the Brewers in the first round, they are definitely a team we have to be worried about. With a CC Sabathia, a healthy Ben Sheets, and Yovani Gallardo coming back, Dale Sveum might be the only National League manager that can match Piniella's arms one-for-one. The offense isn't too shabby either. The combination of Braun and Fielder (combined 70 HR, 205 RBI) tower over the Cubs' Lee and Ramirez (47 HR, 201 RBI), while the Cubs have a much better lineup overall up and down.

However, an even more immediately impact is that we want the New York Mets in the first round of the playoffs. While the Dodgers don't look all that scary on paper, they have been on a recent tear. With Manny Ramirez having hit 17 homers and knocked in 53 in just 185 at-bats with Los Angeles, the offense seems to have been revitalized. Their pitching isn't bad either, with Billingsley and Lowe, with a combined 30 wins, leading the way. The bullpen up and down is solid, with tough as nails Jonathan Broxton at the back end.

Meanwhile, the Mets are a lost ballclub. Sure, they have Johan Santana, but that's about it. John Maine still isn't 100%, and Pedro Martinez is 5-6 with a 5.61 ERA. After Santana, Jerry Manuel has only guys like Mike Pelfrey and Jonathan Niese to rely on. And the New York bullpen is certainly the worst among all teams in contention.

So while these final two games with the Brewers don't appear to have much meaning, they certainly influence how the postseason turns out. Knocking Milwaukee out of the playoffs not only gives us a better chance to win in the first round of the playoffs, but also helps out our odds deeper into the playoffs.

Dempster gets ball in game one

2008-09-26T16:27:00.006-05:00

Los Angeles is in.

That's basically all we learned about the NL playoff picture over the past week. The playoff picture was seemingly clear just four short weeks ago. It seemed like the Cubs would get their rematch against the Diamondbacks, while two teams that fell apart down the stretch last year, Milwaukee and New York, would also get in and play each other in the first round. In fact, on August 30, the Dodgers had a one-in-six chance of winning the division and the Phillies had one-to-four.

But that's why they play the games out.

The Dodgers have since caught Arizona, thanks in large part to to a sweep against the Diamondbacks in the beginning of the month and have won the division. The Phillies also made a miraculous run. After September 10, the Phillies were three and a half games in back of the division lead and four behind the wild card leading Milwaukee. Now, Philadelphia leads the NL East by a game with just three left to go, as the Mets and Brewers are in a dead heat for the fourth NL spot.

This final weekend could cause major headaches for Bud Selig. Not only is there a very real chance of the first three-way tie in baseball history, it's also possible that there could be rainouts leading up to that.

In the event that the Phillies, Mets and Brewers are all tied after 162 games, the two teams from the East will play a one-game playoff. The winner would be crowned the NL East champions and the loser, despite now being a half-game behind Milwaukee, would still be considered tied in the Wild Card race and another playoff game would ensue. But, with tropical storms expected to rip through the east coast and both the Phillies and Mets playing in outdoor stadiums, it may be a while before all teams complete 162 games. As of now, the playoffs for the NL are expected to start on Wednesday. This only gives two days for additional games to be scheduled.

Whatever the case may be, the Chicago Cubs have set up their rotation. Ryan Dempster will make his final tuneup start today and then get the ball in game one, whoever the opponent may be.

Normally, I would be up in arms about this. I still believe that Carlos Zambrano should start game one despite his recent struggles, but this isn't the first time Piniella has made the impulse move that the common man wanted him to make. Last year, Piniella put his faith in the then-unproved Geovany Soto, starting him over the veteran three-time all-star Jason Kendall in two of the three games. Soto responded with a huge homerun in the series. And while Hart didn't get a chance to pitch in the playoffs, he made the roster after just 11 major league innings.

And, this isn't the first time that Piniella has thrown the book out the window this year. He turned what was really nothing more than a publicity stunt and got a few good innings out of Jeff Samardzija. All of those moves seemed to have worked out, so I've decided to take the wait and see approach before bashing Piniella for this move.

But that may be all of the surprises regarding the playoff roster; at least 23 of the 25 roster spots have been spoken for.

ROTATION:
Ryan Dempster
Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly
Rich Harden

BULLPEN:
Jason Marquis
Bob Howry
Neal Cotts
Jeff Samardzija
Sean Marshall
Carlos Marmol
Kerry Wood

CATCHERS:
Geovany Soto
Henry Blanco

INFIELDERS:
Derrek Lee
Mark DeRosa
Aramis Ramirez
Ryan Theriot
Mike Fontenot
Daryle Ward

OUTFIELDERS:
Alfonso Soriano
Jim Edmonds
Kosuke Fukudome
Reed Johnson

This means that Ronny Cedeno, Micah Hoffpauir, and Felix Pie will be fighting for the final two spots. If Cedeno is healthy, he'll probably be in, but there's still some question as to whether or not he'll be 100% by the time the Cubs have to announce rosters.

Hoffpauir made a strong case for his inclusion in the roster yesterday, posting five hits and five RBI, while pounding two homeruns in the 7-6 loss to the Mets. However, Hoffpauir lacks speed and defense, and the Cubs already have Daryle Ward, who's probably better than Hoffpauir in every way.

Cubs still have impact on playoff picture

2008-09-22T15:41:00.002-05:00

The Chicago Cubs hope that the road to the National League pennant will run through them this year, but for many teams, the road to October baseball runs through the Cubs.

The Cubs have already clinched their division title and are one game away from clinching home field advantage throughout the NL playoffs, but the remaining seven games are against teams very much on the playoff bubble.

The Cubs go to Shea Stadium tonight to start a four-game series against the Mets, who are a game and a half up in the wild card race and a game and a half back in the division race. Then, the final weekend of the regular season will be played in Miller Park, against the Brewers, who are the second place team in the wild card.

It's going to be interesting to see how Piniella handles these games. Obviously, first and foremost is keeping the players healthy and fresh for the playoffs, but this postseason is a little strange. Unlike in years past, there is a good 72 hours in between the final regular season game and first playoff game. This should force Piniella to play his regulars towards the end of the season a little more than some other years. Certainly, the bullpen should look to get regular work in heading into Wednesday's game one.

As of right now, Marquis will get the start on Monday, followed by Harden, Zambrano and Lilly. This would put an entire week in between Zambrano's final regular season start and the first game of the playoffs. That's fine. Dempster would get his final tune-up on the final Friday, which puts game two of the playoffs on the sixth day after pitching. That also works well. But, what about game three?

If Ted Lilly is going in the third playoff game, that would put a week and a half in between starts. Certainly, he can't get another start in between, so either he pitches on ten days rest or his final regular season start should be pushed back. Pushing Lilly back to game 160 (remember, that's Saturday) reduces the period of inactivity for the left-hander, but we can't exactly push Dempster up to take Lilly's original spot.

Rich Harden is also left in a tough spot. Under the current plan, Harden would be going tomorrow and then possibly not again until Sunday, October 5. Certainly, this is where having clinched so early plays a great role. Piniella can use someone like a Randy Wells to start tomorrow night's game against the Mets, push Harden back to Thursday and Lilly to Saturday.

That leaves Zambrano going on six, Dempster on five, Lilly on six, and Harden on nine. Sounds like a plan to me!

MONDAY @ NYM: Marquis
TUESDAY @ NYM: Wells?
WEDNESDAY @ NYM: Zambrano
THURSDAY @ NYM: Harden
FRIDAY @ MIL: Dempster
SATURDAY @ MIL: Lilly
SUNDAY @ MIL: Marquis for three, six relievers at one each?
MONDAY
TUESDAY
GAME ONE: Zambrano
GAME TWO: Dempster
FRIDAY
GAME THREE: Lilly
GAME FOUR: Harden

Managing the bullpen: Len Kasper has suggested keeping Sean Marshall available to be the second-half of the two-headed monster in Rich Harden's game. I personally think that he has a shot to make the playoff roster as the lefty specialist, meaning he should be groomed into that role some more. Marshall, in limited duty, has succeeded as a lefty specialist and is the most likely candidate along with Cotts to take that role in the playoffs, especially since Scott Eyre is no longer with the team.

The long lay-off in between the regular season and the playoffs creates an unfamiliar situation for Piniella. Usually, a manager in his position would try to keep his bullpen nice and rested right before the playoffs. While I agree that perhaps Piniella should lean a little more on the September callups in the next few days, giving each reliever an inning on the regular season's final game could keep the rust from setting in before the playoffs.

Cubs defend title, return to playoffs

2008-09-20T18:08:00.002-05:00

The season started with international hype for an outfielder, an infielder being hospitalized, a starting pitcher closing, a closer starting, another pitcher assaulted and another demanding a trade. It ends with division championship.

Kosuke Fukudome got the season started off with a bang, actually in December of 2007. The Japanese star signed a four-year deal worth $48M and we had ourselves an Opening Day right fielder. And while Piniella was considering whether to hit Fukudome second, third, or fifth in the lineup, Mark DeRosa was rushed to the emergency room for an irregular heartbeat.

Amidst DeRosa's health issues, Cubs' all-star Aramis Ramirez was forced to deflect questions about a cockfighting ring and Jose Ascanio suffered several blows to the face after being robbed at a convenience store. But, everyone was okay and it was time for baseball to start.

Ryan Dempster, who finished 175 games for the Cubs in the last three years, was the starting pitcher for the Cubs' first Cactus League game. Dempster was to compete with Marquis and Lieber for two of the final spots in the pitching rotation. Marquis took exception to the fact that he was being asked to earn his job, and Piniella responded. This eventually led a demand of "start me or trade me" by the right-hander, but he and his manager soon made up. Marquis was in the starting rotation. So was Dempster.

Opening Day started with Ryan Theriot in the leadoff spot. Alfonso Soriano had suffered a broken finger earlier in Spring, but that wasn't the reason why Theriot was leading off. Lou Piniella tried to move Soriano down in the order. That experimented lasted all of two days.

Meanwhile, Fukudome got off to a lightning fast start, well en route to making the All-Star team in his first professional season in America. Fukudome doubled off of the center field wall on the very first Major League pitch he saw and hit a dramatic game-tying homerun off of Gagne in the ninth. That was the first sign that the Brewer bullpen was going to have troubles this year. But Milwaukee's offense got to Bob Howry and Kerry Wood and the Cubs started the season 0-1. By the end of the year, Wood's fortunes would change. Howry's would not. And Fukudome's would take a turn for the worse.

By this time, many had expected Orioles' all-star Brian Roberts to be the Opening Day second baseman. Mark DeRosa hit .293 for the Cubs last season, pelting 10 homeruns and driving in 72 runs. Surely, that couldn't happen again, so Brian Roberts would be a wonderful addition to the team, right? The deal was all but finalized when suddenly it broke down. The Orioles, ironically enough, wanted Rich Hill and so Hendry showed them the door. DeRosa answered with a career year, hitting .281 with 20 homers and 84 RBI in the season's first 153 games.

The Cubs would have to wait until the third game of the season to pick up the first win. Ryan Dempster took the first step in silencing his doubters, throwing six strong innings, allowing just one earned run on three hits. It was the first of sixteen plus wins for Dempster. And the first of thirty-two plus saves for Wood.

Kosuke Fukudome continued his impressive month of April, finishing the month with a .305 batting average only to lose the Rookie of the Month chase to teammate Geovany Soto. Soto, with a mad dash of six RBI in the final day, finished with a .341 average, six homers and 20 RBI. In fact, Soto's April practically broke all franchise records with some combination of the words "rookie" and/or "catcher".

The Cubs entered the month of May having won a franchise-best 17 games in April, but would soon lose Rich Hill. We all knew that Lilly was going to be as good as at least a third starter. Marquis could be counted on as a good number four, but we all hoped Hill would step up and be the two. But after failing to escape the first inning of his start on May 2, Hill was sent to Iowa and never heard from again. The Cubs kept rolling though, as Ryan Dempster had stepped up big.

Towards the end of the month and the beginning of June, the Cubs rattled off a season-high nine consecutive wins, which included Zambrano improving his record to 8-1 and the Cubs erasing an eight run deficit against the Rockies.

Trailing 9-1 in May 30's game against the Rockies, Cubs' manager Lou Piniella conceded the game by pulling his regulars. But the Cubs' bench wasn't ready to call it quits. New-Cub Jim Edmonds finally broke out his slump and Blanco's sixth inning blast that pulled the Cubs within three runs was his first of the year. Edmonds, who had hit his first homerun in a Cubs uniform earlier that game, doubled home two more runs and DeRosa homered to give the Cubs a lead that would stick.

From that point on, the beautiful center field platoon to replace Felix Pie was born. Johnson would go on to bat .298 on the year while Edmonds would hit .257 with 18 homeruns in just 237 at-bats.

Just days before the Cubs would finish the first half with a National League best 57-38 record and send eight players to the all-star team, Jim Hendry pulled off a blockbuster trade. Using many of the players that he kept because the Roberts deal fell through, Jim Hendry prepared a decent package for Oakland's Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin. With the Brewers having acquired defending Cy Young winner CC Sabathia, this was seen as a great move made at the perfect time to keep the Cubs as the top dog in the Central.

But a slow start to the second half of the season found the Cubs to be in trouble. By July 26, the Brewers had managed to crawl to a virtual tie with the Cubs atop the division and actually looked like they might be in first place by the time the four-game head-to-head series started. But that's when the Cubs really turned it on. Erasing a five-run deficit against Florida, the Cubs were able to carry a one-game lead into Miller Park.

The first game of the series matched a pair of left-handers. CC Sabathia was 4-0 at the time and coming off of back-to-back-to-back complete games, but Ted Lilly was equal to the task. In what would be the first of three real big games for Lilly down the stretch, the Cubs' southpaw was brilliant. Though he technically ended up with a no decision, Lilly managed to limit the Brewers to just three runs over six innings until the Cubs could get to the Milwaukee bullpen to steal the first game.

Game two of the series was a battle of two aces. But, Carlos Zambrano was considerably better than Ben Sheets. Behind a 4-for-5 day from Aramis Ramirez and eight shutout innings by Zambrano, the Cubs managed to win the second game in a route and set the tone for the sweep.

The Cubs continued their roll in August, reaching winning streaks of five and seven games on separate occasions and hitting a season-high mark of 35 games over .500. But, the bad came as quickly as the good did. Heading into the second week of September, the Cubs lost eight of nine games. It was Ted Lilly that delivered again, throwing eight innings of one-run ball against the Cardinals while showing some punch by knocking Yadier Molina out of the game on a collision at the plate.

Thankfully, the Brewers had started the month of September at a 3-11 clip, allowing the Cubs to have a healthy lead and a magic number of 6 heading into the most recent head-to-head tilt at Wrigley Field. The Yost-less Brewers Milwaukee came limping in and after splitting the first two games, looked to be in firm control of the rubber game. Up 6-2 with two outs in the ninth inning of game three, the Brewers should've won the series.

But, Ramirez doubled under Braun's glove, Edmonds singled into center, DeRosa doubled into right center and to-be Rookie of the Year winner Geovany Soto homered to send the game into extras where the Cubs would eventually win.

Now, the Brewers are in a complete tailspin and can't seem to beat anyone. Milwaukee got thrashed 11-2 by the hands of Dusty Baker's Reds last night and the magic number was 1. The Cubs' go-to man was a familiar one and he delivered again. This time, the prize for Lilly was his career-high 16th win and a division title. For just the fifth time ever, the Chicago Cubs are champions of the National League Central and for the first time since 1907-08, the Cubs have reached the postseason on back-to-back seasons.

All this talk before about how to set up the postseason rotation and roster and trying to see who the first round matchup would be has not gone for naught. There will be Cubs baseball this October.

During my entire life I've been watching baseball, I heard stories of teams being the first to clinch a postseason berth or ending the season with the best record. I knew those teams existed, but it always seemed like a far cry for it to be my team. Tonight, that changed. We are the first team to clinch and are two games away from clinching the best record in the league.

Let's go Cubs!

Despite Z's struggles, Magic number now 1

2008-09-19T17:03:00.002-05:00

As impressive as Carlos Zambrano was in Milwaukee, he was equally unimpressive today.

Zambrano's season of inconsistency continued in the Cubs' 12-6 loss to the Cardinals. Of his 28 starts this year, there's no question that he has shown us what he's capable of. Including the no-hitter last time out, he has allowed one or fewer runs on 11 different occasions. But he's also allowed five or more runs 8 different times.

And with just nine or ten games remaining between now and the end of the season, Zambrano will get just one more opportunity to straighten things out. Judging by the looks of the schedule, this final tune-up is to come against the New York Mets, who currently are involved in a see-saw battle with Philadelphia for the NL East lead.

Should the Phillies win that race and the Brewers continue their free-fall, the first round opponent would be the New York Mets. So, how should Zambrano and the rest of our pitchers approach the series in the final week of the season? Surely, if Greg Maddux was still a Cub, he'd know exactly what to do: set up the batters exactly how he wants them for the postseason. But, not everyone's Greg Maddux.

Do you hold stuff back? Do you just let it fly and give it your all? Do you not worry about that and just play the game?

But whether it's the Phillies, Mets, or even the Dodgers that we draw first in the playoffs, one thing is for certain. Their starting pitcher in game one will be tough to deal with. So we need Zambrano to be able to match up with that ace, pitch-for-pitch. The first game is so crucial in any series, but is especially important in a five-game set. In fact, since the wild card was added, teams that win the first game of the Division Series went 36-16 in the series.

Granted, the situation is a little bit different. No matter who the first round opponent is, we will be the better team. We will have a better offense and a much better bullpen. Most importantly, the other team will not be able to match Dempster, Harden and Lilly that will follow in games two through four.

But, as we saw was the case last year, the first game can be so crucial in setting the tone for the rest of the series. We all thought that the Zambrano-Webb matchup was the game we could afford to give away. Unfortunately, after that happened, we weren't really able to get going again. This time around, being up 1-0 after the first game sounds so much better.

Reds blast Crew, Magic Number goes to 1: While the Cubs lost Friday's game against the Cardinals, the day wasn't a complete loss.

Thanks to the 11-2 thrashing that the Reds handed Milwaukee, the Cubs were able to move one step closer to clinching the playoff berth. It seems likely that the team will get to celebrate another division championship on Saturday, as both the Cubs and the Brewers play afternoon games.

According to simulations done by baseballprospectus.com, the Cubs entered the day with a 99.9790% probability of winning the division. Despite the loss, we can expect that number to go up.

With the magic number down to 1, it would mean that even if the Cubs lost all ten of their remaining games and Milwaukee ends the season on an 8-0 clip, the best Milwaukee could do is force a one-game playoff. Baseballprospectus.com has yet to release the results of their simulations after Friday's real results, but I performed a very rough and crude calculation.

The probability is near 99.9998%.

Zambrano blanks Houston in return

2008-09-14T21:40:00.010-05:00

He's back.

A lot of people, including myself, had concerns about Carlos Zambrano. Some went as far as to suggest that Ryan Dempster should get the starting nod in game one of the playoffs. After all, could you blame them?

Carlos Zambrano had been struggling of late, allowing a 7.09 ERA in his last 5 starts and having missed 12 days due to a dead arm period. But, Carlos Zambrano showed the world that he is capable of pitching at top-notch level once again, striking out ten batters in the first no-hitter thrown by a Cubs pitcher since Milt Pappas.

The Cubs ace was supposed to get the ball yesterday, but Hurricane Ike caused the game to get washed out and moved to Milwaukee. Did that help? Certainly, it did. What was supposed to be a home game for the Astros essentially turned into a home game for the Cubs and all of a sudden, it was the Houston Astros that had to fly out of the hurricane-ravaged city and across the country to get to the game. The Cubs drove ninety miles with thousands of their fans.

But the game and the no-hitter still count. A week after the near no-hitter by CC Sabathia and the appeal that was denied by Major League Baseball, Zambrano threw a no-hitter on Sabathia's home turf. Against the Astros. Who saw that one coming?

The Cubs got an early run from Soriano's leadoff homer and four more runs on clutch two-out hits by practically the entire lineup to make it 5-0. This allowed all of the focus to shift on Carlos Zambrano and his gem. And just in case anyone wasn't sure if he could handle the pressure, Zambrano teamed up with Soto and delivered.

Of course, there's still 14 or 15 games (ambiguity intentional) in between now and the end of the regular season. That equates to roughly two starts for each of the Cubs' top starting pitchers. Anything can happen in these final two weeks, but for the moment, Zambrano has put to rest any discussions of throwing Dempster in the first game.

The most outrageous thing about this, however, was that fans in Champaign (including myself) weren't able to see it. Due to restrictions that MLB had with ESPN, only the Chicago-land WGN was allowed to broadcast the game, but WGN America (which is what we get in Champaign) was not allowed to. MLB.tv wasn't working either, because of local blackout restrictions. MLB.tv considered Champaign to be a part of the Chicago market and wouldn't allow the Cubs game to be accessed through the internet.

A similar thing will happen on each of the next two Wednesdays. The games will be on WCIU, which isn't carried in Champaign, but MLB.tv will still be blacked out all the same.

Cubs extend lead to 7 1/2: Contrary to popular belief among many fans in and around Chicago, we aren't in the playoffs yet. But for the first time this year, I'm willing to stand up and say it. We will, once again, be champions of the National League Central.

Sure, there are still six head-to-head matchups left between the Cubs and the Brewers, but right now, Milwaukee's greater focus is just making the playoffs at all. The Phillies completed a double-header and series sweep of the Brewers and have managed to catch Ned Yost's team for the Wild Card lead. (The Phillies are also just one game behind New York, which pulls the Mets into any Wild Card math.)

At this point, even if the Brewers sweep the Cubs, Milwaukee would still trail by 1 1/2 games and have just six games left to make it up. And if they don't manage to sweep us, every time we beat them would be detrimental to their chances of winning the division. The Magic number for us is just 7 and beating the Brewers knocks two off of that number at a time.

Cubs-Astros moved to Milwaukee

2008-09-13T20:40:00.000-05:00

The Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros will play two of the regularly scheduled three games this weekend. But the games will be in Miller Park.

The first game will be Sunday night at 7:05 local time and the second game will be Monday afternoon at 1:05 local time. The Cubs will return home to host the Brewers while the Astros travel to Florida for Tuesday's game. The third of the games will be played in Minute Maid Park on the Monday following the end of the season if necessary.

Tickets for this game will be within $25-60 and can be purchased through cubs.com, astros.com or brewers.com. I encourage Cub fans to purchase these tickets and pack the stands at Miller Park. You know there'll be plenty of Brewer fans there cheering for Houston. Click here to purchase tickets.

Looks like Major League Baseball and Drayton McLane came to a compromise. The Astros still get to keep one of their three home gates, but two games will be played this weekend in Milwaukee. Miller Park has a dome, so weather concerns will not be an issue so long as the Astros can get out of Houston alright.

Ike washes away at least two

2008-09-12T18:41:00.011-05:00

The Cubs appeared to have finally snapped the skid, winning the final two games at St. Louis and taking the first series since August 27. However, the Cubs won't be able to take their momentum into Houston, as Hurricane Ike has postponed Friday's and Saturday's matchups that were set to take place in Minute Maid Park.

But, the rainouts actually come at the perfect time for the Cubs. Why? The Astros have been even hotter, having matched the 2007 Rockies by going 14-1 in their last 15. On August 26, Houston was 66-66 and 11 games out of a playoff berth with just 30 games to go. Everyone, including myself, had the Astros dead and buried. But after just half of those remaining 30, Cecil Cooper's ballclub is in second place in the Wild Card race trailing Milwaukee by just three games.

Meanwhile, the Cubs could really use the rest. With Rich Harden coming off of a reasonably successful start and Carlos Zambrano being scheduled to return during the Houston series, the extra off-days could go a long way for the long-term health of the starting staff. But there's a good chance that the Cubs will have to use up their last scheduled off-day on Monday to play a make-up game, so the team should make the most of this down time. I expect Lou to rotate his starting lineup every now and again for the rest of the season to give some extra time off to some players, but there's really no substitute to a true team off-day.

Initially, I had wondered if the games would even be made up at all. With the Cubs holding a 5 1/2 game division lead, it seemed like we could get away with not playing those games. Obviously, I didn't realize how close Houston is to a playoff berth so waiting to see if the games are necessary at the end of the season would be disastrous. I could maybe see Major League Baseball leaving one game pending at the end of the season, but even that could lead to trouble. What if the Astros need that game to make the playoffs and the Cubs are already comfortably locked into a division championsip? Would the Cubs even show up? (Obviously, I know they would literally show up.)

So it's certain the Cubs will play baseball this weekend, but where the games will be played remains yet to be seen. Astros owner Drayton McLane desperately wants to keep the games in Houston, but most believe that the city would not be baseball-ready by Sunday or Monday. Atlanta's Turner Field and Milwaukee's Miller Park seem to be leading candidates for "neutral sites" for the games, but the Astros aren't so sure how impartial those locations would be.

"Milwaukee's kind of a home game for them, isn't it?" Loretta commented before Thursday's game with the Pirates. While that's true, the Astros might be better off taking their chances in Milwaukee. At least there is a possibility some Brewers fans would show up and cheer for Houston. If the game were to move to Atlanta, there definitely wouldn't be any fans on Houston's side.

Looking at the schedule today, there aren't many other ballparks that are viable possibilities. Obviously, ballparks like Seattle's SafeCo Field would be out, as would be ballparks like Minnesota's Metrodome. Ideally, Major League Baseball will look for location near Houston (after all, it was supposed to be their home game) as well as near Chicago and Miami (where the two teams will travel next). That basically leaves St. Louis' Busch Stadium (where the Cubs just came from) and Kansas City's Kauffman Stadium as the only other Major League ballparks available.

Six cancellations today: Looking at the scoreboard for Friday's games shows that the Cubs-Astros game wasn't the only rainout. In fact, there were a total of six today. With common off-days on the schedule becoming scarce, most of these games have been rescheduled to be played tomorrow, leading to a schedule with 12 AL games for 14 teams and 8 NL games also for 14 teams.

Marquis, Soriano snap skid at six

2008-09-06T23:01:00.002-05:00

So this is what it feels like to win.

After reaching a season-high 35-games over .500, the Cubs had dropped six in a row. Thankfully, the Brewers had their hands full with the Mets at the same time. Granted, we have to play these same Mets in the final week of the season, but for now, I'm thankful that the Mets were able to sweep. Now, with 20 games remaining, the lead is four games thanks to a wonderful pitching performance by Jason Marquis and homers from Alfonso Soriano (and Marquis and DeRosa). Sure, it's hard not to play the what-if game at the moment. Where would we be if we didn't lose six straight? But dwelling on the past isn't going to help and leading the division by this many games this late in the year is something to be extremely happy about, no matter how it happened.

But holding onto this lead isn't going to be easy. I've stressed the strength of schedule in the final four weeks of the season over and over again, but I feel the need to emphasize it once more. It'll be the last time. I promise.

After finishing the series in Cincinnati, the Cubs have 20 games against teams in playoff contention to end the year: St. Louis, Houston, Milwaukee, St. Louis again, New York, and Milwaukee again. Not only that, there are only six home games left on the schedule. Meanwhile, the Brewers have nine games against teams well out of playoff contention.

But in any case, the most important will be the head-to-head games. If the Brewers can win both series, that'll put them right back into contention. If we can split or even come out with a series win in both, then you've got to like our chances to hold the through in the other fourteen games.

Chicago arms struggling to stay healthy: Sean Marshall will pitch on Sunday in place of Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden is scheduled to pitch Wednesday. Right now, the main focus should be keeping these guys healthy for the postseason. While we know that the Cubs have been known to stretch the truth with the health of their pitchers before, provided that Carlos Zambrano can return in about ten days and make about two good starts before the playoffs begin, we should be alright.

If we believe the stories coming from the front office, we're just being extra cautions with Rich Harden. It seemed to be a nice place in the rotation to skip him because the arm issue with Zambrano forced Marshall into a spot start. Of course, at the time we didn't know that Zambrano was going to miss another start, but the decision to skip Harden was already made.

At the way things stand right now, Carlos Zambrano is still my game one starter if he's healthy. I'm sick of these idiots who get their panties in a twist after every little thing. Zambrano has made a few poor starts, so people think that's somehow supposed to negate what he's done for this ballclub before. At this point, Dempster is still an unproven converted-closer and Carlos Zambrano is a perennial Cy Young candidate. Plain and simple.

Cubs enter September with 4 1/2 game cushion

2008-09-01T00:02:00.001-05:00

We're one series away from this imaginary September 5 goal I set for the Cubs and we've got a 4 1/2 game lead. However, being only four games ahead in the loss column, it looks like the lead may only be four games by the time we reach Friday morning.

In a perfect world, the lead would be about seven games by this time, but I really want the lead to be at least four or five. Perhaps it's just the fact I'm overreacting, but comparing the schedules between the Cubs and Brewers over the final four weeks makes me think that if we head into that stretch with a three-game lead, it'll be even money on who wins the division; that is, I'm expecting to lose three games off the lead.

People like to point out that we're 13-1 in our last 14 road games, but that doesn't mean that we'll continue this tear on the road. The win that started this stretch was barely avoiding the sweep at Arizona. Then came the anomaly, the sweep in Milwaukee. That's not going to happen again, that's for sure. After that, we managed to knock off the reeling Atlanta Braves, before stealing a couple of games against Florida and then a sweep of the hapless Pirates. The quality of road opponents we play in September is far better than our previous roadtrips.

CUBS SCHEDULE: SEPTEMBER 5 - SEPTEMBER 28
3 @ Cincinnati (61-76)
3 @ St. Louis (74-63)
3 @ Houston (71-66)
3 vs Milwaukee (80-56)
3 vs St. Louis (74-63)
4 @ New York (76-61)
3 @ Milwaukee (75-62)

Okay, so it looks we have another weak opponent on the road to start this stretch. But then we see that the Reds are 35-33 at home. True, the Reds are a different ballclub now without Griffey and Dunn. But, there's no arguing that it doesn't get pretty from there. We've got games against the Cardinals, the Astros who are .574 at home, and New York and their .621 home percentage.

To top things off, in this year of home dominance around all of baseball, the six games we play at Wrigley Field come against teams with winning road records!

Now, look at what the Brewers will be doing during this time.

BREWERS SCHEDULE: SEPTEMBER 4 - SEPTEMBER 28
4 vs San Diego (53-83)
3 vs Cincinnati (61-76)
4 @ Philadelphia (75-62)
3 @ Chicago (85-52)
3 @ Cincinnati (61-76)
3 vs Pittsburgh (57-79)
3 vs Chicago (85-52)

They have four games at home against the Padres, who are 30-games under .500 overall and playing .323 road baseball, as well as the Reds who sport a .377 road record and the Pirates who are .354 away from PNC Park.

The final week is what's really scary. If the Brewers win both series and we lose both series, then we could potentially lose at least 2 1/2 games off the lead. Judging by who the opponents are and the fact that we don't have an off-day in the final two weeks of the season, it seems possible.

One thing appears to be certain, though. We have a ten-game lead on the Philadelphia Phillies who are now second in the wild card hunt. Even if the Brewers catch us, it's not going to take much for us to get in the playoffs. With just 25 games remaining, the Phillies would have to go something like 19-6 (with the Mets matching that total) while we go 8-17 for Piniella's boys to be sitting on their asses in October.

Marshall subs for Zambrano: Sean Marshall filled in for Carlos Zambrano and didn't do quite as well as his spot start earlier in the month. However, he kept us in the ballgame and Jamie Moyer did his job. This loss isn't Marshall's fault or Zambrano's fault; the offense totally shut down.

One thing this does allow for is pushing everyone back. Zambrano is going to throw on Tuesday, which gives some starting pitchers welcomed extra days off. Ryan Dempster will be moved back to Wednesday and Rich Harden's turn will be skipped all together. Dempster has thrown 111 or more pitches in three of the last four (including the last two) and thrown 100 or more pitches in eight of the last ten starts and eighteen times overall this year. Sure, he's started before, but as a recently converted closer, we're all holding our breath to see when Dempster will reach the end of his line. And the oft-injured Harden is coming off of back-to-back triple-digit pitch outings.

What?!? Here is the "scouting report" that is given for Roy Oswalt on the page for probable pitchers. I've seen errors and typos there before, but this is by far the worst I've seen. See if you can make heads or tails out of this one.

Oswalt recorded his 22nd win against the Reds in a 4-1 victory on Wednesday. He is 6-2 in his last 10 starts with a 3.02 ERA, averaging 5.7 strikeouts a game. Oswalt is 11-11 all-time against Chicago, losing his only game against the Cubs this season. He earned five runs on 10 hits in 6 2/3 innings.

Who are these guys?

2008-09-01T00:01:00.005-05:00

Here's a quick look at the September callups.

1B/OF Micah Hoffpauir: We all know what Hoffpauir is capable of. In 19 games with the Cubs earlier in the season, he managed 14 hits in just 37 at-bats (.378) while cranking six doubles. His offensive output was even more impressive in the minors; in just 290 at-bats with Iowa, Hoffpauir batted .362 with 25 homers and 100 RBI. (Extrapolating to 600 AB, that's 52 HR and 207 RBI!) He seems to be a slightly faster version of Daryle Ward, though not quite the professional hitter that Ward is. With the game on the line, I'd think Piniella would still turn to Ward, but expect Hoffpauir to take some of the earlier inning pinch-hit opportunities that would normally go to Mike Fontenot.

IF Casey McGehee: Though a third baseman by trade, McGehee is able to bounce around the infield if necessary. He didn't turn out to be the power hitter that we had all hoped for, but he is still a solid gap hitter with occasional power. At the minor league level, he was basically a carbon copy of Mark DeRosa in every way. At the major league level? If Piniella wants to give Ramirez a day off, his best option is still probably to move the real DeRosa to third and have Fontenot or Cedeno play second.

C Koyie Hill: After literally losing a few fingers during the off-season and having to have them surgically reattached, Koyie Hill appears to be very much the same player from last year. Though he's a switch-hitting catcher that hit 17 homers in Iowa this year, Hill's biggest value to the club will be his defense and the fact that we now are carrying three catchers. Last year, Hill hit just .161 in the Majors, but the team was 23-13 in games which he appeared.

RHP Michael Wuertz: For quite a time, it looked like Wuertz had a spot in the Cubs bullpen anchored down. With the arrival of Samardzija, somebody had to go and it was Wuertz that drew the short straw. Now, he's back and probably falls below Howry, Gaudin, Samardzija, Marmol, and Wood on the pecking order for righty relievers.

LHP Rich Hill: Hill was called up to the Major League team but then immediately placed on the 15-day disabled list. This move was a ploy to give the team more options to choose from when picking the postseason roster, but I don't expect Hill to play any sort of a role this season.

Also returning to the active roster on September 1 were right-handed relievers Jon Lieber and Angel Guzman. Though both are normally starters, the strength of the Cubs' rotation has forced them into the bullpen. They may get spot starts now and again, but should be able to eat up innings in relief when necessary.

The Cubs will get even more reinforcements when Iowa finishes their AAA schedule, whenever that may be. The I-Cubs will start the first playoff series with the Oklahoma Redhawks (Rangers) on Wednesday. Among the players that may get called up to the big club after the minor league postseason ends are OF Felix Pie, RHP Kevin Hart and others.

Cubs won't stop, get to 34 games over

2008-08-28T23:10:00.000-05:00

It's still August, but it's hard not to get giddy.

The Cubs improved to 84-50, stretching their lead over the Brewers to 6 1/2 games after coming from behind to beat the Phillies. Perhaps what's even more impressive is that the record at Wrigley Field is now 50-19. That's on pace for 59 wins. According to baseballprospectus.com's simulations, the Washington Nationals will win 59 games overall this year.

What's even more astounding is the run differential that the Cubs have put up. Having outscored the opponents by 193 runs this season is absolutely mind-boggling, but breaking down each of the numbers separately is even more impressive. To say that the Cubs lead the league with 735 runs scored would be an understatement. The Mets are next in line with 660 runs scored, while three teams are at or under 512 runs scored at the moment. In fact, the Cubs have scored the second most runs in baseball, trailing only the Texas Rangers by just thirteen runs.

So, that's because the Cubs play in a hitter-friendly Wrigley Field, right? Well, that may be the case, but that doesn't explain why the pitching staff has allowed just 542 runs, which is also best in the league. That's nearly 200 runs fewer than the Pirates who lead the league with 731 runs allowed.

Despite the tough September schedule, the Cubs look to be in prime position to win the division and/or advance to the playoffs. With 28 games remaining (29 for Milwaukee), here are some simple scenarios:

If the Cubs play .500 ball the rest of the way, the record would be 98-64. This would mean that the Brewers 21-8 in their final 29 games just to tie us and the Cardinals would 24-4 to force a tie. Clearly, if we play .500 ball, then the division should be ours. But, what if we don't?

The Brewers are on pace to win 94 games. As my AIM profile points out, that means that we only need to win 11 more games to win the division outright. Breaking that up further into a 6-6 home goal and a 5-11 road goal (or 5-7 and 6-10, if you'd like) makes it look that much easier. St. Louis is on pace to get 89 wins. That would mean that we just need to win 6 more times to secure a playoff berth. How about 3-9 at home and 3-13 on the road?

One thing is for certain. The Brewers and Cardinals won't catch us by playing the way they have been playing. The Brewers and Cardinals also won't catch us if we keep playing the way we've been playing. It's not to say that it won't happen, but it would take both an incredibly hot streak from our division rivals and a monumental collapse on our part for us to miss out on postseason action.

Second guessing: With the team just steam-rolling the rest of the league, there's not too much second-guessing that I could do. This blog was initially created so that I could have a single place where I could list the errors of Dusty Baker's ways. The blog wasn't completely obsolete last year either, as we started the season 32-39. But since then, we're a combined 137-88 (.609) in the regular season. I've been trying to find things to pick at, if for no other reason than to keep this blog going, but now it seems like the team is damn near perfect.

To that end, most of the recent posts have been about statistics and standings. I'm a math nut. Sorry.

I've also noticed that I'm no longer stressed about the Cubs games. I don't watch the games with one eye on the field and one eye on the manager. Sure, there are still moves that I think I'd like to make, but at this point, I completely trust Lou Piniella. Every now and again, there might be something that I feel the need to comment on, but this team is so good that there is no such thing as a poor choice; it seems like everyone can do everything.

Besides, at this point, I've been wrong about Ryan Dempster, Jim Edmonds, and so much more. It was Piniella and Hendry that saw things I couldn't see with this team -- and with a little luck (every championship-caliber team needs luck) -- turned the Chicago Cubs into the best team in baseball.

Cubs keep rolling, trounce Bucs

2008-08-26T23:44:00.004-05:00

I'm not sure if it speaks to how good the Cubs are or how bad the Pirates are, but the Cubs committed three physical errors, one mental error, left eight men on base, and still managed to route the Pirates by a 14-9 score.

Okay, so the score was a lot closer for most of the game, but the Cubs managed to break the game open with a seven-run eighth inning. It was one of those patented innings that Len and Bob always talk about. "Just keep the line moving." But for every big inning, it seems like there are two or three innings in which we get the first two guys on and fail to score. Right now, against the Pittsburgh Pirates, that's okay. But, imagine in the postseason...Say we get Brandon Webb on the ropes and put a man on third with less than two outs. If we let Webb off the hook, do you think we'll get another shot? But, I digress. The postseason isn't for another month, and after all, we have to get there first.

But, it looks like we will. With the Cubs win over the Pirates late Tuesday and Milwaukee's shutout of the Cardinals simultaneously, the Cubs have managed to jump ten games ahead of the Redbirds in the loss column with just 30 games to go. If the Cardinals continue to play .549 ball the rest of the way, they'll lose 14 more times. That means that we just need to go 8-22 the rest of the way.

And while the Brewers keep managing to stay at least in our rear-view mirrors, the chances that the Cubs will reach that September 5 goal that I keep talking about with a five-game lead seems to be more and more likely. With 17 wins on the month of August already, there are still five more to go: one more against Pittsburgh and four at home versus the Phillies. At this point, it doesn't really matter what the Brewers do. As long as we keep winning, they can't catch us.

But you guys knew all that. You didn't come here to read about Soto's 7 RBI performance or the fact that the Cubs are now an astonishing 32 games over .500. So, I'll talk about the bigger story in baseball and make sure that my initial opinions about the subject are on the internet immediately.

If instant replay will be used only on disputed homerun calls, I'm okay with that. Quite frankly, I'm rather indifferent about the system being implemented in the middle of the season (provided it runs smoothly) and am indifferent about the way the replays will be handled. But, it needs to stop here.

So-called baseball purists bring up the "human element" of the game. However, I can guarantee that 95% of the people who use those two words to argue against replay have no idea what they're talking about. Likely, they heard the phrase from someone else and decided that it sounded catchy and sophisticated, so they started to use it, hoping that no one would ask them to elaborate.

Umpiring mistakes and bad calls should not be a part of baseball. If there's a way to eliminate those, I'm all for it. However, there are certain things about the game that are just the way they are and don't exactly follow the letter of the law. The example that even the casual fan would know about is the "neighborhood play" on the pivot of a double play.

Any good runner on first knows that his job on a potential double play is to go in hard at second base and try to break up the play. Everyone in the ballpark, including all of the umpires, knows the runner's intent when he makes a hard slide into second base. However, the rules clearly state that the runner has every right to try to attempt to advance to the next base. The rules clearly state that the runner has every right to slide into the base, if he wants to. There's no way to prevent the runner from going in hard, so the umpires decided to make a compromise; the middle infielder only needs to be in the vicinity of the bag to complete the double play. That seems fair. That seems obvious.

Most casual fans (speaking of which, what the hell is a "casual" fan? you're either a fan or you're not...) know that the strike zone isn't always the same from pitch to pitch. Okay, not many people realize that the strike zone expands when the count is 3-0 (there are reasons for that, I won't go into detail about), but most know that if a pitcher has been consistently missing the strike zone that he won't get the benefit of the doubt on close pitches. On the flip side, the Greg Madduxes and the Tom Glavines of the world have proven themselves time and time again, and get those extra few inches off of the corner. If the pitcher manages to nail the catcher's glove on a pitch, that's generally a strike, regardless of whether that pitch actually was. We all get that. We all have accepted that.

Another one of those unwritten rules of baseball is that if a throw beats the runner on a tag play, the runner is out. This is the one that most "casual" fans don't seem to understand. However, if they actually bothered to sit down and watch a baseball game, they would realize that an overwhelming majority of the tag plays on the bases that are called outs are actually not by the rulebook.

There are no politics involved in a disputed homerun call. There are no safety precautions or unwritten rules. The umpires' primary goal on those situations is to get the call right, so why shouldn't they use every tool available at their disposal? But when you force umpires to rule on certain plays according to the letter of the law when other unwritten rules exist for a reason, the best case scenario would be double plays constantly being turned into no plays. The worst case scenario? Infielders with broken legs and dislocated knees.

Also, imagine if umpires actually called players safe or out depending on when they were actually tagged. An average base stealer would have a 90% success rate and the good base stealers would never get thrown out. Literally. Never. All of a sudden, walks would turn into triples (as soon as teams catch on, which might be a while) and Major League Baseball will be reduced to the playground mockery that Little League is. Remember when every runner would reach first and promptly steal second and third? When catchers didn't even have a shot at throwing runners out? Where would the strategy in baseball go?

Goal: 5 by September 5

2008-08-21T14:21:00.000-05:00

I know I’m beating a dead horse here, but I can’t stress how important I think the September 5 date is for the outcome of the Cubs season. Currently, we lead the Milwaukee Brewers by five games in the standings (albeit six in the loss column) and quite frankly, I’m a little bit scared.

I know we’re in a much better position than Milwaukee; it’s certainly better to be up five than down five. I also know that baseballprospectus.com has all but pegged us to make the playoffs, giving us 89% odds to win the division and another 10% odds to win the wild card. But, even so, there’s something about having to play 16 of the final 22 games of the season -- including the final seven -- on the road. We’ve won 10 of our last 11 road games, but are we really that good of a team on the road? Hell, our overall season road record is at .500, but are we even that? Or is it more likely that we’ll fall back into playing .400 baseball again?

Obviously, I’d like to think that we can at least muster a .500 record in the final four weeks of the season. And it looks like a .500 September might be enough. But the key is building up that lead before September 5. With us on road trips that last longer than a week, it’s very possible that a two or three game lead could vanish in literally two or three days. Especially since we go head-to-head with both the Brewers and the Cardinals six times each.

A five-game lead, which is what we have now, sounds a little bit better and a little bit more secure. Then, we know that one bad series can’t make us fall out of first place. In a perfect world, I’d like for us to have an eight or so game lead heading into September 5, but I understand that’s reaching. But, being tied or up only a game or two heading into the final stretch of seven at New York and at Milwaukee can be disastrous.

There’s about two and a half weeks in between now and September 5. If Milwaukee can manage to gain one game per week on us until then, then they’ll only be two or so games behind us, with a much more favorable mid- and late-September schedule. If we manage to gain one game per week until then, it’ll be a comfortable eight-game cushion with four weeks to play, regardless of the schedules.

Earlier in the season, I talked about breaking the season down and looking at it one homestand or one road trip at a time. For example, the last homestad would’ve been a great success; we managed to pick up three series wins at Wrigley Field. The last road trip would’ve been an even greater feeling: 5-1 on a roadtrip that included Atlanta and Miami. Now, the next chunk of the season I want to look at is from August 21 to September 5 and I want to look at more than just the Cubs record. There are less than 40 games left for each team; I think it’s okay to start scoreboard watching a little bit.

Right now, the lead on Milwaukee is five. The goal is to keep it at five.

The sweep at Miller Park: Everyone wanted to talk about the Cubs’ four-game sweep of the Brewers in Milwaukee. Many people were over-dramatizing the event, saying that the Cubs had clinched the division or that they had sent a message to Ned Yost’s club. It’s not like that at all. The Brewers didn’t quit after it happened. It didn’t manage to slow down C.C. Sabathia, who recently improved to an outstanding 8-0 with Milwaukee.

It didn’t have any long term effects at all. Except for the fact that it was four games on the standings. Heading into the series in Milwaukee, the Cubs only had a one game lead on Milwaukee. Many Cubs fans, including myself, hoped for merely a series split, so that we could walk out of Milwaukee with the lead. We all got much better than we had hoped for, getting a four-game sweep and extending the lead to five games. Nearly three weeks of jockeying for position later, the lead has fluctuated from time-to-time, but is now back to a clean five games. Had we split that series, we’d be up a single game right now. Doesn’t a five-game lead seem so much better?

The four games at the end of July didn’t make either team better or worse. It’s not going to indirectly change the outcome of the final six meetings between the two teams in September either. The four games at the end of July were exactly that. Four games. Nothing more. Nothing less. But oh, how big do those four games look now?

Road not a problem for rolling Cubs

2008-08-16T03:25:00.011-05:00

After a very successful homestand at Wrigley Field in which the Cubs went three-for-three in series wins, Lou Piniella's team continued their dominance over the rest of their league. I meant to post after the sweep of the Braves, but didn't have time and now there are some notes worth mentioning in the series opener against the Marlins.

Daryle Ward is the top pinch-hitter of the team and even though he's been struggling of late, turning to Ward in the ninth inning was the right choice. Those of you that know me know that I'm not someone who forms opinions after-the-fact or based on results, but rather on what the proper move was. After all, in the game of baseball, pitchers are supposed to get batters out 70% of the time.

From the manager's seat, the game of baseball is a complex game of probability. The best thing to do is to give your team the greatest chance of winning. Often times, that doesn't work and often times it does work. However, over the course of a 162-game season, consistently making the right moves shows dividends. This was one of those dividends.

A move that I did question, however, was why Piniella let Zambrano hit for himself in the seventh inning. We all knew that he was done pitching after 119 pitches in the first six innings, but trailing by two runs and only nine outs to give, Piniella decided to give up one of those for seemingly no reason at all. I've been trying to understand what was going through his head when he made the decision and couldn't figure it out. In fact, it wasn't until I started writing this blog that I realized what was going on. Kudos to Lou Piniella for thinking this one all the way through.

It had nothing to do with Zambrano being a good hitter, like I initially thought. In fact, it all revolves around the unavailability of Aramis Ramirez. Now, we were told that he would be available, but that doesn't change what was really going on. Make no mistake, Aramis Ramirez was not available and that forced utility man Mark DeRosa to be anchored at third base. That, in turn, Ronny Cedeno tied to the bench for a very similar reason as to why Henry Blanco was. Cedeno is the only guy left that could play either middle infield spot.

That left Ward and Fukudome as Piniella's options. He wasn't going to use Ward if he wasn't at least the tying run and burning Fukudome for one pinch-hit at-bat in the seventh wouldn't have been worth it. The pitcher's spot was (theoretically) going to come around again (Lou safely assumed the final nine Cubs wouldn't go down in order) and running yourself dry of options this early wasn't going to happen. This was one of those situations where Piniella probably would've called on Zambrano to hit had another pitcher been in the game.

As it turned out, the pitcher's spot and Daryle Ward's job seemed to coincide, but Piniella still got use out of Fukudome as part of the double switch to bring in Wood and take Soriano out. By giving up that out to lead off the seventh, Piniella got much more back in the ninth inning. It's not like he could've predicted that the pitcher's spot would've come up to bat with the tying runs on base. Oh, and Lou wasn't exactly giving up an out in the seventh; Zambrano is hitting better than .360.

But now, my focus turns to the series finale against the Braves that was action packed. Initially, a large portion of that discussion was going to center around Aramis Ramirez's injury and what we needed to do on the chance that Ramirez was going to miss an extended period of time. Obviously, there is no replacing a presence like Ramirez, but I was going to look for a silver lining. Honestly, I really couldn't find one, but we don't have to worry about that for now.

Two more interesting things happened during that game that got lost amidst the Cubs' sweep. Winning the game was the most important part of that game, but we all know the consequences of that: we improved to 74-47 at the time and pushed the Brewers back to 4 1/2 games in the division race. Yadda yadda yadda.

So I prefer to spend the time talking about the slightly less important, but more interesting occurrences during the game. The first was the first cycle that I have seen live. As someone who really doesn't watch baseball games outside of the circle of the Chicago Cubs, there really wasn't much of a chance for me to see one. Mark Grace had the last cycle for a Cub in May of 1993 (I was five at the time) and it had been even longer since the Cubs had allowed a cycle. So, I have nothing more to say about that, other than to take my hat off to Mark Kotsay. All four of Kotsay's hits were clean hits and he ran to the right bases each time. Kotsay didn't stop at a base to try to achieve this personal mark and none of his hits seemed to be aided by the official scorer. In fact, the only hit that could've been questioned was the single, but Kotsay made sure to end those discussions with a line drive rocket into center field for his fifth hit of the game.

But as classy as Kotsay and his achievement was, Yunel Escobar's was the polar opposite.

For what it's worth, I didn't think that Francisley Bueno intentionally threw at Soriano the day before, but that's not really an issue. As a matter of public record, Bueno's actions were intentional, as displayed by the ejection and suspension, so let's just speculate for the time being that in fact Bueno was head hunting. Even so, it's clear that Lilly was not looking to retaliate. (Again, as a matter of record, Lilly was NOT ejected for his actions.)

How do I know that Lilly wasn't going after Escobar? The pitch wasn't Lilly's best fastball and it was clearly tailing up and in on Escobar the whole time. Should someone on the Cubs have retaliated for Bueno's actions? That's not something I'm willing to discuss right now, but one thing is for certain. The fact that Lilly's pitch happened to clip Escobar -- and the way Escobar reacted -- took away the option for a Cub to get even with the Braves the right way.

Had all of those thoughts entered Yunel Escobar's head in the split-second after he was hit and his reaction was all an act to keep his other players safe, then I would be impressed by Escobar. But, I highly doubt that. Immediately after he was hit with the pitch, high-and-mighty Yunel Escobar pointed right at Lilly and started to swear at him. Escobar wasn't looking to protect anyone, but he was looking for revenge, which probably comes from growing up on the streets of Havana. Yunel Escobar has always been an unsophisticated thug and hot head. Only people like that would throw a baseball at a fan, like he did in Cuba. (Do you hear me, Julio Castillo?) But, he's in America now, a country (theoretically) of some class and dignity. So act the part.

And don't flatter yourself, Yunel. You're nobody. If we were going to go after someone, it wouldn't have been you.

Nine in a row away from home: Part of the concern for Cubs fans around the all-star break was the fact that the team was so flat on the road. For now, it seems like the Cubs have been able to flip the proverbial switch, scoring a ridiculous 76 times over the past nine games on the road and winning all nine games. Also, the Cubs continue to be dominant at home, indicated by the 7-3 record during the most recent homestand and the .726 season winning percentage. We knew that if the Cubs could keep up that rate at Wrigley Field, then the road woes could be overcome, at least until the postseason began. But, we expected the law of averages to catch up to the Cubs at Wrigley Field and then the incompetence on the road could not be overlooked.

But the Cubs haven't slowed down at Wrigley and with just twenty home games remaining, there's a very real chance that the team could end up with a .700 home winning percentage at the end of the year. Not only that, in one fell swoop, the Cubs managed to pull their road record from a pathetic 21-30 all the way up to a clean .500 -- exactly where we wanted it. Baseballprospectus.com projects to the Brewers to end the season with somewhere around 92 wins. If we believe that, then a combination of 55 total home wins (10-9 in remaining 19) and 38 total road wins (8-13 in remaining 21) should be enough. But, that 8-13 in the remaining road games could be tougher than you think; all it would take is for the Cubs to jump back into the team that we saw in the first half of the season.

And no matter how you slice it, the final 22 games of the Cubs season don't look pretty. I mentioned the target date of September 5 in an earlier post and that date still stands. We need to build a substantial lead by the end of September 4, because starting with the September 5, 16 of the last 22 are on the road, 19 are against winning ballclubs, and 12 are against the Cardinals and Brewers. And Milwaukee has 16 September home games, including the final six at Miller Park.

Fasten your seatbelts. This could be a wild September.

Dumb things Joe Morgan and Jon Miller said...

2008-08-10T19:03:00.013-05:00

I'll be keeping track of dumb things said by Joe Morgan and Jon Miller in Sunday's broadcast of the Cubs.

Apparently, Joe Morgan called the basket in Wrigley Field as "Banks Boulevard" again this year, because supposedly, so many of Banks' homeruns have landed in the basket. The only problem is that Ernie Banks has hit seven homeruns at Wrigley Field since the basket was installed in the middle of the 1970 season, including his 500th homerun which we know cleared the basket by several rows.

1. Skip Schumaker lines out to Cesar Izturis to lead off the game. It was later clarified that the Cubs, as the home team, take the field to begin the game. Also, it was mentioned that the visiting Cardinals bat first. The Cardinals' shortstop is Cesar Izturis, the Cubs' shortstop is Ronny Cedeno.

2. Ryan Ludwick singles through the Cubs infield in the first inning on a grounder with a lot of "overspin". The word "overspin" was used several times before the proper word "topspin" was used just once. Never mind the fact that they couldn't finish the sentence without stuttering and stopping about five times.

3. After the Cardinals strand two runners on base in the top of the first, Jon Miller delivers "The Cardinals threaten...comes to an end." Apparently, he got confused between "The Cardinals threat comes to an end" and "The Cardinals threaten, but do not score".

4. Kosuke Fukudome is accused of being a contact hitter in the bottom of the first inning. I guess averaging 138 strikeouts per 600 at-bats in Japan makes you a contact hitter, so much in fact that being on pace for 128 strikeouts in 600 at-bats in his first year in the Major Leagues is surprising.

5. Mark DeRosa "catches" a two-hop grounder in the top of the second inning.

6. Jon Miller and Joe Morgan spend a minute in the fourth inning explaining to us fly balls tend to drift in the direction the wind is blowing. They use several different camera angles and the pen to illustrate the point.

7. After Edmonds makes a diving catch to retire the side in the fourth, Jon Miller tells us that the "Cardinals are robbed by one of their own stars." Last I checked, Edmonds is wearing the Cubs pinstripes.

8. Carpenter gets away with a mistake to Edmonds in the fourth, but is saved by late movement on the cut fastball. And here I was, silly me, thinking that the whole point of the cut fastball was the late movement.

9. Joe Morgan thinks he can manage, because he said Ryan Dempster “competes” and Lou Piniella used the same word to describe Dempster shortly thereafter. Even Joe Miller thought this was dumb, and mocked Morgan by suggesting more baseball clichés to him, such as, "keep the ball down."

10. Jon Miller busts out "You can put it on the board, yes!" In his defense, Miller was again trying to save Joe Morgan after he stumbled on his line saying, "I think he could've put...did...done some real damage with that one."

11. Carpenter's pitch to Soriano in the 6th was over the "middle half" of the plate. It could just be because I haven't taken a math class in quite a while, but how can you cut something in half and get a middle part?

12. On DeRosa's RBI single in the 6th inning, we were told that Jim Edmonds successfully advanced to third base, when in fact, he was thrown out. In fact, we all saw the play at third (and even heard it). But it was only about 20 seconds later, we see Edmonds in the dugout and the scoreboard shows "2 Outs", when Jon Miller and Joe Morgan give us a half-assed explanation for what happened.

13. Joe Morgan gets the score wrong four times in Schumaker's at-bat in the seventh. It went from 5-1 to 4-0 and again to 5-1, and then to 5-0, as Morgan was trying to answer Miller's question as to why Izturis would attempt a steal of second base, down by six runs. The score was 6-0. Is Joe Morgan even watching the game?

14. Jon Miller points out the Cardials have had "a lot of hits" against Dempster. At the time, the St. Louis offense had managed a grand total of five hits in 6 2/3 innings.

Cubs top Cards, first to 70

2008-08-08T16:38:00.004-05:00

It looks like the Chicago Cubs can't be stopped. Especially not at home, where they've improved their record to an outstanding 44-16. Overall, they are 70-46, becoming the first team in the National League to reach 70 wins and reaching new season-highs in all sorts of things, such as 24 games over .500 and a 5 1/2 game lead in the division.

This time around, Jim Edmonds and Henry Blanco were the heroes of the game. The former delivered two solo homeruns, while the backup catcher came through with the game-winning RBI single after coming in to replace Soto, who was lifted for a pinch runner.

The defense also stepped up. Mark DeRosa kept the Cardinals off of their third run on two different occasions with incredible plays, Jim Edmonds and Ryan Theriot also contributed with the leather, Alfonso Soriano with his arm, and even the pitchers stepped into the act. Ted Lilly broke up a suicide squeeze attempt in the middle innings and Jeff Samardzija made a nice play to pick off Albert Pujols in the 10th.

The team clicked on all cylinders today. The pitching was phenomenal; Ted Lilly and the bullpen threw a combined 11 innings of ball, allowing just two runs and eight hits, but the biggest missing piece was Kerry Wood. With Marmol relieving Lilly during the eighth inning to face Pujols, I expected that Wood would claim his rightful spot as the closer. I wanted Wood to throw in Thursday's blowout, because he threw only seven pitches on Wednesday and with the off-day on Friday, it would've been a good opportunity to give him another day of work in a non-closing situation to ease him into the role. Wood didn't throw on Thursday and for whatever reason, he didn't throw today, meaning that he's now had three straight days off.

I'm not sure if Woody's blister acted up again, or if Piniella doesn't trust Wood, or if Piniella doesn't realize that there can never a save-situation in extra innings for the home team, but I don't understand why Wood didn't pitch. I understand why Marmol came in the eighth inning. We've never wanted Wood to come into the game in the middle of an inning, that's fine. Marmol has held right-handed batters to a .095 clip. Besides, Marmol is our eighth inning man. But, it should've been Wood, not Samardzija, in the ninth inning. In fact, I don't understand why Samardzija stayed on the team when Wood returned to the active roster (actually, I do understand; we had a lefty too many, but that's besides the point).

Now, the extra day of rest makes me hesitate to toss Wood into a one-run situation of the ninth inning in Saturday's game. And because Howry and Marmol should be the go-to guys in the late innings and with Carlos Zambrano probably going to give another typical long outing, Wood might have to sit for a fourth consecutive game. I just hope that Piniella doesn't try to force Wood into Saturday's game. He didn't look all that brilliant on Wednesday, what rust he was able to shake off on Wednesday definitely had enough time to come back, and he's not his usual self. He'll get there, I'm not doubting that; but trying to squeeze him back into this role right now could end with poorly. Of course, in a perfect world, the Cubs' offense would rough up Todd Wellemeyer a little bit and we'd have a six-run cushion heading into the ninth inning.

Piniella plays gamesmanship: We all know that Tony LaRussa is the king of gamesmanship, but in Friday's win over the Cardinals, I saw Piniella steal a page out of the playbook from his opposing counterpart. With a 3-2 count in the ninth inning and just one out, the fans at Wrigley Field were on their feet. Jim Edmonds had already gone deep twice in the game and the Geovany Soto was standing on first base, representing the winning run. The Cardinal rookie right-hander Chris Perez got the sign from his catcher, took a deep breath and set for the pitch. All of a sudden, Piniella jumped out of the dugout and requested time; Ronny Cedeno was going to pinch-run for Soto.

I understand why Piniella waited until the 3-2 count to run for Soto. Henry Blanco is a considerable offensive drop-off from Soto (or so we thought), so immediately removing Soto from the game might have been counterproductive. But with the count full, Piniella wanted a faster runner on first, so that he could run with the pitch and either stay out of the inning-ending double play or score on a gapper. As it turned out, the former was the case and the substitution ultimately led to a two-out chance for Mark DeRosa.

DeRosa was retired to send the game into extras, but that's not the point. This was clearly one of the largest moments of Chris Perez's life up to this point. All of the pressure was on him. He was on enemy soil, it was rookie vs veteran, righty vs lefty, and his team was the team that had everything to lose in that moment. In football, this is an obvious time to ice the kicker by calling a timeout. Today, Piniella tried to do the exact same thing. Perez eventually delivered, but I applaud Lou for not making things any easier for him.

Cubs sweep Crew, extend lead to 5

2008-07-31T23:59:00.003-05:00

That certainly feels good.

Coming into the series, the Cubs had a 22-30 road record and the Brewers were 32-19 at Miller Park. The pitching matchup was great all the way around, but the fact the Cubs had failed to score three runs in 7 of the last 11 games didn't bode well for Cubs fans. The Brewers had managed to climb within to a tie for first place, but fell behind by a game before the start of the series.

Heading into the series, I was optimistically hoping for a split. The Brewers had taken four out of six games from us already this year and all of those games were at Wrigley Field (where we play other opponents to a .787 clip). Now, we were going to Miller Park. I was just worried about adverting disaster and being able to limp out of Milwaukee with the lead in the division race. Well, we did far more than that.

Even after the Cubs managed to pull out a 6-4 victory in the series opener, the main thought running through my head was, "Hopefully, Milwaukee won't take the next three. That way, we'll split." Because, let's face it, the first win wasn't very convincing. Ted Lilly did a good job of keeping the Brewers in check, but Milwaukee seemed to respond with "you can't keep us down all game," in a three-run sixth inning. We got a couple of gift runs from a good take-out slide by Reed Johnson and a poor throw by Rickie Weeks, and the tattered bullpen somehow managed to hang on.

In the second game, Carlos Zambrano proved that you can keep the Brewers down all game. Ben Sheets was matching Zambrano pitch-for-pitch until the wheels kind of fell off for him in the sixth inning. The final score said 7-1, but the game was anybody's game for most of the night; it didn't seem like we had blown them out by six runs. After that, I was still a little scared. The best hope I could come up with was, "Now, it's time to get greedy. Imagine if we could take three out of four..."

Game three was very much like the game two. The box score reveals a 7-2 final, but we all know that that game was closer, too. But once again, Ned Yost's desperate attempt to squeeze another inning out of his starter led to a crooked number in the sixth inning and once again, the injury-bit Cubs' bullpen wasn't put to the test. In fact, it was until Edmonds' grand slam in the fourth inning of the finale that the possibility of sweeping the Brewers entered my mind. Who would've ever thought that a four-game sweep of the Brewers (at Miller Park - no less) would be the way that the 2008 Cubs first got past 20 games over .500?

But that's exactly what happened and with a 65-44 record, the Cubs have managed to reach that mark of 21 games over .500 that had been so elusive in the past and now sit a pretty five games in front of both the Cardinals and the Brewers. Now, it's time to put even more distance between ourselves and the rest of the competition.

Of course, all of us know that it would be very typical of the Cubs to stand up to a huge series in Milwaukee, and then come home and fold to the Pirates, but we are 9-3 against the Bucs, while the reeling (and as we saw in the ninth inning of the finale -- very frustrated) Brewers go into Atlanta to face a team that's 32-23 at home. This is our chance to really separate ourselves from the competition. 22 of the next 31 games will be at Wrigley Field, before the final stretch of 22 games, of which 16 are on the road (including the final seven at New York and at Milwaukee). If we're only a game or two up in the division come time September 5, I can guarantee that the ending won't be pretty. This is our chance to put the division out of reach before then.

Wood still on the shelf: I can't stress the point enough that we were promised to have our all-star closer back by July 18. Now it's August 1 and the best he can do without tape over his injury is to play catch? With Bobby Howry showing no signs or desires of returning to the once-dominant reliever that he was and us still holding our breath about Carlos Marmol, the options at the back end of the bullpen don't seem appetizing. What was supposed to be the greatest bullpen that the Cubs have assembled in the recent past has turned into a glaring hole for the ballclub. Luckily, we were able to run up the scoreboard against the Brewers, but how much longer can this closer-by-committee approach with Marmol and Samardzija last?

Well, it's going to have to last -- and for quite some time. If for some unknown, stupid reason we believe that the Cubs have stopped spewing the bullshit that they have been for the past two-and-a-half weeks, then we can expect Woody back sometime in the second week of August. But, we all know what's going to happen. Wood will be unable to play catch on August 1 for some strange, vague reason and will be delayed for another two days. Then, another sim game followed by another delay of two or three days. Pretty soon, it'll be the fourth week of August and Wood will be looking to start a rehab assignment somewhere, until he suffers another setback. (I should point out that Piniella had a slip of the tongue during a post-game interview and said that he's trying to give Samardzija more closing experience, and then very defensively, corrected himself.)

I saw footage of Wood throwing his simulated game on Thursday. Well, at least we know he's not dead.

Best teams in the league?

2008-07-28T22:37:00.003-05:00

Coming into a battle for first place in the division, the Cubs and Brewers entered with records of 61-44 and 60-45, respectively, making the best marks in the National League. The game was tight and the intensity was definitely very high, but it didn't quite seem like the best two teams in the league were on the field.

Starting from the first play, the entire game was sloppy for both sides. Alfonso Soriano hit a fly ball off the top of the wall and entered his homerun trot around first base. Soriano probably would've been thrown out at second base, if it hadn't had been for Ryan Braun bobbling the ball in the outfield and first baseman Prince Fielder telling Soriano the ball was still in play by pointing at second base right in front of Soriano's face.

The sloppiness continued later in the game. After Rickie Weeks was carelessly picked off of first base in the third inning, the Cubs defense couldn't figure out who the right person to cover second base was. With Lee making a poor short-hop throw to second, Cedeno was several feet in front of the bag and Theriot was several feet behind it. The end result? The throw managed to skip by both middle infielders and into left field, but Weeks failed to pick up the baseball, either defender, or his third-base coach and did not advance any further on the play. Then, in the home half of the sixth, Bill Hall, who was the fifth consecutive Brewer to reach base, let himself get picked off on the same play. This time, the Cubs had one person -- at the bag -- covering and managed to retire the runner.

In the top of the seventh, Weeks continued to struggle. After the lead-off man reached, Weeks dove up the middle to make a nice stop on a Fukudome grounder, but he couldn't handle it and turned into an infield single. Was it a tough play? Of course it was, but the failure to make that play was just one of many different instances in which both teams struggled to play the game the right way. For example, a few batters later, so-called all-star Derrek Lee hit a routine inning-ending double play that Weeks managed to turn into two runs for the Cubs.

We made fewer mistakes in the first game of the series, so round one went to us. It will be interesting to see how the rest of this series turns out.

Woody delayed...again: With Carlos Marmol struggling to hold a five-run lead just two days before the all-star break, we all speculated that Wood was unavailable to pitch when we saw Lou Piniella have Sean Marshall warm up in the bullpen instead. We were right. After the game, Piniella said that Woody was dealing with a blister problem and would be able to return on the first day of the second half. When that day rolled around, Piniella assured us that Woody would be available in an emergency situation, but wanted to wait a couple more days. A couple more days turned into a DL stint, at which point Piniella and Hendry both promised the all-star closer would be ready to come back as soon as he was eligible. Well, that day will roll around too, but now we're hearing that Wood will miss three days beyond that, at the very least. So what was supposed to be just a two-game absence slowly, but surely, turned into three weeks. When will we see Wood take the hill again?

Why even bother?

2008-07-27T14:31:00.002-05:00

Sometimes you wonder why the Cubs even show up to the ballpark.

Here I currently sit, watching the hapless Cubs flail away at Rick Vanden Hurk and the Marlins after miserable failure in the past couple of days. The Brewers have managed to catch up to us, but that doesn't seem to bother us at all, as long as there's plenty of time to sleep after the game.

Down 5-0 in the third inning, Derrek Lee had a chance to get several runs back at once. With two runners in scoring position, nobody out, and a 2-0 count on the third hitter in the lineup, you would think that he has the presence of mind to take a pitcher's strike, if necessary. This is when you're looking to dent the scoreboard without having to trade outs. Instead, Lee rolls over a pitch that's actually off of the outside corner and hits a harmless dribbler to Hanley Ramirez. It gets the run home, and quite frankly, Lee looked satisfied - no, actually, quite proud of himself - for his accomplishment.

Then, the next batter is Aramis Ramirez who has the audacity to sit and home plate and pose for a double. In any circumstances in the sport of baseball, there's no room for guys who pose at their homeruns, but especially not when you're still trailing by several runs afterwards. Never mind that, though, the ball wasn't even a homerun. In fact, it wasn't even close! The ball bounced off of the ground, then off the side wall, then bounced into the bottom of the vines of the outfield wall. That's a far cry from a tape-measure homerun, although I guess we can forgive him since it was the first time he hit the ball out of the infield in the last month.

Now, with the score 5-2, the Cubs feel like they've done enough for the day. Edmonds works the count to 3-0, then takes the obligatory strike, before chasing after up and out of the zone. Then, Edmonds hit a pop fly down the line in shallow left field. Edmonds sat there and watched his harmless lazy pop fly, as Willingham and Cantu both gave chase at it. The ball was about a foot away from Willingham when it landed and about six inches away from the foul line, but apparently Edmonds comes from the school of "why bother to run if you're not absolutely certain it'll be fair? "

2008 All-Star Game

2008-07-15T19:09:00.054-05:00

I scored the All-Star game last year and I did it again this year.

NATIONAL LEAGUE STARTING LINEUP:
SS Hanley Ramirez (FLN)
2B Chase Utley (PHN)
1B Lance Berkman (HON)
DH Albert Pujols (SLN)
3B Chipper Jones (ATN)
RF Matt Holliday (CON)
LF Ryan Braun (MIN)
CF Kosuke Fukudome (CHN)
C Geovany Soto (CHN)
----
P Ben Sheets (MIN)

AMERICAN LEAGUE STARTING LINEUP:
RF Ichiro (SEA)
SS Derek Jeter (NYA)
CF Josh Hamilton (TEA)
3B Alex Rodriguez (NYA)
LF Manny Ramirez (BOA)
DH Milton Bradley (TEA)
1B Kevin Youkilis (BOA)
C Joe Mauer (MNA)
2B Dustin Pedroia (BOA)
----
P Cliff Lee (CLA)

NL 1st:
Cliff Lee starting.
Hanley Ramirez strikes out swinging.
Chase Utley called out on strikes.
Lance Berkman flies out to center.
0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors

AL 1st:
Ben Sheets starting.
Ichiro flies out to right.
Derek Jeter reaches on an infield single to second.
(With Hamilton batting, Jeter steals second.)
Josh Hamilton strikes out swinging.
Alex Rodriguez fouls out to catcher.
0 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors

NL 2nd:
Albert Pujols grounds out to third.
Chipper Jones singles to center.
Matt Holliday grounds out to first.
Ryan Braun strikes out swinging.
0 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors

AL 2nd:
Manny Ramirez strikes out swinging.
Milton Bradley draws a walk.
(With Youkilis batting, Milton Bradley steals second.)
Kevin Youkilis strikes out on a foul tip.
Joe Mauer draws a walk.
Dustin Pedroia flies out to center.
0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors

NL 3rd:
Joe Saunders relieves Cliff Lee.
Kosuke Fukudome grounds out to first.
Geovany Soto flies out to center.
Hanley Ramirez singles to right.
Chase Utley grounds out to first.
0 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors

AL 3rd:
Carlos Zambrano relieves Ben Sheets.
Ichiro singles to right.
Derek Jeter grounds into a double play, shortstop to second to first. Ichiro out at second.
Josh Hamilton grounds out to second.
0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors

NL 4th:
Roy Halladay relieves Joe Saunders.
Lance Berkman strikes out swinging.
Albert Pujols singles to right, thrown out at second, right to shortstop.
Chipper Jones grounds out to shortstop.
0 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors

AL 4th:
Alex Rodriguez strikes out swinging.
Manny Ramirez grounds out to second.
Milton Bradley reaches on throwing error by Ramirez.
(With Youkilis batting, Zambrano picks off Bradley at first.)
0 runs, 1 hit, 1 error

NL 5th:
Grady Sizemore enters the game in center, batting fifth.
Josh Hamilton moves to left.
Ervin Santana relieves Roy Halladay.
MATT HOLLIDAY HOMERS TO RIGHT. NL LEADS 1-0.
Ryan Braun grounds out to second.
Joe Crede enters the game at third, batting fourth.
Kosuke Fukudome strikes out swinging.
Geovany Soto called out on strikes.
1 run, 1 hit, 0 errors

AL 5th:
Nate McLouth enters the game in center, batting ninth.
Russell Martin enters the game as catcher, batting eighth.
Dan Haren relieves Carlos Zambrano.
Kevin Youkilis flies out to right.
Joe Mauer reaches on infield single to pitcher.
Ian Kinsler runs for Joe Mauer.
(With Pedroia batting, Kinsler steals second.)
Dustin Pedroia draws a walk.
Ichiro strikes out swinging.
Derek Jeter grounds out to pitcher.
0 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors

NL 6th:
J.D. Drew enters the game in right, batting first.
Justin Morneau enters the game at first, batting seventh.
Jason Varitek enters the game as the catcher, batting ninth.
Justin Duchscherer relieves Ervin Santana.
Ian Kinsler remains in the game at second, batting eighth.
Hanley Ramirez singles to left.
Chase Utley singles to right, Ramirez to third.
LANCE BERKMAN HITS A SACRIFICE FLY TO CENTER, RAMIREZ SCORES. NL 2-0.
Michael Young enters the game at short, batting second.
Albert Pujols singles to center, Utley to second.
Chipper Jones strikes out swinging.
Matt Holliday pops out to second.
1 run, 3 hits, 0 errors

AL 6th:
Miguel Tejada enters the game at shortstop, batting first.
Dan Uggla enters the game at second, batting second.
Adrian Gonzalez enters the game at first, batting third.
Aramis Ramirez enters the game at third, batting fifth.
Corey Hart enters the game in right, batting sixth.
Josh Hamilton singles to center.
(With Sizemore batting, Hamilton steals second.)
Joe Crede pops out to second.
Milton Bradley pops out to center.
0 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors

NL 7th:
Carlos Quentin enters the game in left, batting third.
Joe Nathan relieves Justin Duchscherer.
Ryan Braun strikes out swinging.
Nate McLouth pops out to center.
Russell Martin flies out to center.
0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors

AL 7th:
Ryan Ludwick enters the game in left, batting seventh.
Edinson Volquez relieves Dan Haren.
Justin Morneau doubles to right.
Ian Kinsler grounds out to short, Morneau to third.
Dioner Navarro pinch hits for Jason Varitek.
Dioner Navarro called out on strikes.
J.D. DREW JOMERS TO RIGHT, MORNEAU SCORES. TIED 2-2.
(Edinson Volquez blows save for Carlos Zambrano.)
Michael Young strikes out swinging.
2 runs, 2 hits, 0 errors

NL 8th:
Dioner Navarro remains in the game as catcher.
Jonathan Papelbon relieves Joe Nathan.
Miguel Tejada singles to right.
Dan Uggla strikes out swinging.
(With Gonzalez batting, Tejada steals second. Tejada advances to third on throwing error by Navarro.)
ADRIAN GONZALEZ HITS A SACRIFICE FLY TO LEFT, TEJADA SCORES. NL 3-2.
David Wright pinch hits for Albert Pujols.
David Wright called out on strikes.
1 run, 1 hit, 1 error

AL 8th:
David Wright stays in the game at third.
Brian Wilson relieves Edinson Volquez.
Carlos Quentin flies out to center.
Carlos Guillen pinch hits for Joe Crede.
Carlos Guillen strikes out swinging.
Billy Wagner relieves Brian Wilson.
Grady Sizemore singles to right.
Evan Longoria pinch hits for Milton Bradley.
(With Longoria batting, Sizemore steals second.)
EVAN LONGORIA DOUBLES TO LEFT, SIZEMORE SCORES. TIED 3-3.
(Billy Wagner blows save for Edison Volquez.)
Justin Morneau grounds out to pitcher, unassisted.
1 run, 2 hits, 0 errors

NL 9th:
Carlos Guillen remains in game at third.
Francisco Rodriguez relieves Jonathan Papelbon.
Aramis Ramirez draws a walk.
Cristian Guzman pinch runs for Aramis Ramirez.
Corey Hart flies out to right.
Mariano Rivera relieves Francisco Rodriguez.
Ryan Ludwick strikes out on a foul tip. Cristian Guzman caught stealing second.
0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors

AL 9th:
Cristian Guzman stays in the game at third.
Ryan Dempster relieves Billy Wagner.
Ian Kinsler strikes out swinging.
Dioner Navarro strikes out on a foul tip.
J.D. Drew called out on strikes.
0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors

NL 10th:
Nate McLouth called out on strikes.
Russell Martin singles to right.
Miguel Tejada singles to center, Martin to third.
Dan Uggla grounds into double play, second to shortstop to first. Tejada out at second.
0 runs, 2 hits, 0 errors

AL 10th:
Aaron Cook relieves Ryan Dempster.
Michael Young reaches first on fielding error by Uggla.
Carlos Quentin reaches first on fielding error by Uggla.
Carlos Guillen walked intentionally, Quentin to second.
Grady Sizemore safe at first on a fielder's choice, second to home. Young out at home. Quentin to third, Guillen to second.
Evan Longoria safe at first on a fielder's choice, third to home. Quentin out at home. Guillen to third, Sizemore to second.
Justin Morneau grounds out to short.
0 runs, 0 hits, 2 errors

NL 11th:
Joakim Soria relieves Mariano Rivera.
Adrian Gonzalez singles to center.
David Wright strikes out swinging.
Cristian Guzman flies out to center.
Corey Hart pops out to right.
0 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors

AL 11th:
Ian Kinsler singles to center.
(With Navarro batting, Kinsler caught stealing, catcher to shortstop.)
Dioner Navarro draws a walk.
J.D. Drew singles to center, Navarro to second.
Michael Young singles to center, Drew to second. Navarro out at home, center field to catcher. On the throw, Drew advances to third, Young advances to second.
Carlos Quentin grounds out to third.
0 runs, 3 hits, 0 errors

NL 12th:
Ryan Ludwick draws a walk.
Nate McLouth reaches on bunt single, Ludwick to second.
Russell Nathan out at first on a sacrifice bunt, first base to second base. Ludwick to third, McLouth to second.
Miguel Tejada walked intentionally.
Dan Uggla strikes out swinging.
George Sherill relieves Joakim Soria.
Adrian Gonzalez strikes out swinging.
0 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors

AL 12th:
Carlos Guillen doubles to left.
Grady Sizemore grounds out to second, Guillen to third.
Evan Longoria strikes out swinging.
Justin Morneau walked intentionally.
(With Kinsler batting, Morneau advances to second on fielder's choice.)
Ian Kinsler grounds out to third.
0 runs, 1 hit, 0 errors

NL 13th:
David Wright singles to center.
Cristian Guzman safe at first on fielder's choice, pitcher to shortstop. Wright out at second.
Corey Hart strikes out swinging.
Ryan Ludwick pops out to second.
0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors

AL 13th:
Carlos Marmol relieves Aaron Cook.
Dioner Navarro grounds out to second.
J.D. Drew reaches first on a fielding error by Uggla.
Michael Young called out on strikes. Drew steals second.
Carlos Quentin strikes out on a foul tip.
0 runs, 0 hits, 1 error

NL 14th:
Nate McLouth flies out to right.
Russell Martin flies out to right.
Miguel Tejada grounds out to short.
0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors

AL 14th:
Brandon Webb relieves Carlos Marmol.
Carlos Guillen lines out to short.
Grady Sizemore strikes out swinging.
Evan Longoria strikes out swinging.
0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors

NL 15th:
Scott Kazmir relieves George Sherrill.
Dan Uggla strikes out swinging.
Adrian Gonzalez flies out to left.
David Wright draws a walk.
Cristian Guzman grounds out to first.
0 runs, 0 hits, 0 errors

AL 15th:
Brian McCann enters the game as the catcher, batting ninth.
Brad Lidge relieves Brandon Webb.
Justin Morneau singles to center.
Ian Kinsler lines out to left.
Dioner Navarro singles to center, Morneau to second.
J.D. Drew draws a walk, Morneau to third, Navarro to second.
MICHAEL YOUNG HITS A SACRIFICE FLY TO RIGHT, MORNEAU SCORES. AL 4-3.
1 run, 2 hits, 0 errors

Harden's debut nearly spoiled

2008-07-12T16:23:00.012-05:00

Rich Harden certainly deserved a win.

In his Cubs debut, the right-hander pitched 5 1/3 innings of scoreless baseball, allowing just four hits while fanning ten batters. Meanwhile, the Cubs posted seven runs of support for Harden in the first four innings and it looked as though the Cubs were going to cruise to another win.

In the eighth inning, the Giants managed to plate a couple of runs off of a variety of Cubs relievers, but there still wasn't any panic. Carlos Marmol was going to have the chance to right the ship and finish the ballgame. As bad as Marmol had been in the past, he seemed to have turned the corner again. Surely, he can't blow a five-run lead, right? Well, he did. And it was aided by two fundamentally horrible plays.

In Piniella's postgame interview, the Cubs manager ripped on Marmol for not making the right play on a chopper, and rightfully so. With one out in the inning and a five-run lead, Marmol decided that his personal line was more important than his team. With Ivan Ochoa standing on third base, Jose Castillo hit a swinging bunt down the first-base line. Marmol got to the ball in time, but instead of focusing on the play and getting the second out of the inning, Marmol took his eye off the ball to check on the runner. The ball squirmed out of Marmol's glove and trickled away, opening the floodgates.

Now, fast forward six batters later. Two outs. Tying run on second. Theriot made a nice diving stop on an Alfonzo grounder in the hole, stopping the tying run from scoring for all of one whole second. While lying on the ground in the outfield grass, Theriot tried to make a desperate flip to second base to get the game-winning force, but instead threw the ball into right field, giving the Giants the seventh run of the ballgame. Now, don't get me wrong; I know that Ryan Theriot has done a great job for this ballclub. He's hit everywhere in the lineup that Piniella has asked him to -- literally anywhere between first and eighth -- and has played exceptional defense all year. That having been said, this was, without a shadow of a doubt, the dumbest thing I've ever seen Theriot do. (I should note Theriot also made an ill-advised throw earlier in the inning to try to complete the game-ending double play. In all fairness, the ball should've ended up in the Giants' dugout, but somehow bounced off of Marmol and right at Lee.)

But, that's just how good the Cubs are. Even Lou Piniella tried to gift-wrap the game for the Giants. After throwing two innings of scoreless relief in extra innings, Sean Marshall was sent to the plate to lead-off the bottom of the eleventh, despite the fact that Jon Lieber was available and ready in the bullpen. With the game already past the regular nine, it could end literally any inning. So what's Piniella doing trying to save his pitchers instead of winning the game? Especially when he's got a converted starter in the bullpen. (During the post-game interview, a member of the media asked if Lieber was available. Everyone in the ballpark knew the answer to that question; we all saw Lieber warming up in the bullpen. It was veiled criticism of Piniella's decision, but Lou just shrugged it off.)

As it turned out, Marshall led off the inning with the single and started the rally that ended with a Reed Johnson walk-off single, but that doesn't make Piniella's decision the right move.

It's clear that Piniella doesn't like Lieber. We all thought that Piniella had the quick hook when he pulled Lieber from the rotation after one bad start in Cincinnati, and Lou's lack of confidence in Lieber is even more clear in the recent weeks. On the surface, Piniella's treatment of the right-hander looks bad. Digging deeper, it's even worse.

On June 24, Piniella spoke about Lieber. "Lieber basically is a long guy. Now that we have two left-handers in the rotation, Lieber's value and use will expand because teams will load up with right-handed lineups. We'll have a chance to use Lieber a little more." However, after that statement, Lieber has made four appearances in 17 team games, including just two in the last 14 team games. Meanwhile, Piniella has worked Marmol to the tune of seven appearances in 11 July team games.

Take for example Sunday's finale against the Cardinals. After Marshall threw seven strong innings, the Cubs had a five-run lead by the time the bottom of the eighth inning rolled around. Seems like a reasonable spot for Lieber, but instead Marmol was given the ball.

How about the very next game? It was the opener against the Reds of the current home stand. Granted, there was an off-day in between, but Piniella again turned to Marmol in the ninth inning with a six-run lead. The next game? Marmol again in the ninth with a four-run lead. These are all situations in which Lieber could've pitched, not situations where you want to burn out Carlos Marmol.

Thanks, but no thanks: With Soriano being unable to participate in the all-star game due to injury and Dempster also being unavailable due to pitching Sunday, the Cubs weren't going to be as well represented as the roster or team record would suggest. Then, with Wood going down, we were going to be down to just four available players for Tuesday's Midsummer Classic. So, Hurdle tried to do us a favor by adding Carlos Marmol to the all-star team. The same Carlos Marmol has a 10.90 ERA over the course of his last 20 appearances. The same Carlos Marmol that, in all fairness, should be back in Des Moines.

Quite frankly, Kosuke Fukudome doesn't deserve to be in the all-star game either. And he can use the four days off more than anybody. But, as a position player, allowing him to get a couple of at-bats over the course of four days isn't such a bad thing. For Carlos Marmol, it would've been great for him to get five full days off. Now, regardless of whether or not Marmol actually pitches in the game, he can't take maximal advantage of this break. (The same could be said about Ryan Dempster, but it doesn't look like he's in dire need of the rest.)

After the break: Piniella will start with Ted Lilly out of the gate on Friday. That'll be followed by Zambrano, Dempster, and Harden, which means that everybody in the rotation will be getting extra rest. Initially, I had speculated that Harden and Dempster would pitch the first two games of the second half, but it looks like the team is trying to be careful with Rich Harden.

Criticisms of Harden: It's hard to argue with what Rich Harden did in his Cubs debut. But there is one minor point of concern. Combining this start with his others this year with Oakland, he has made 14 starts. This was the sixth time he couldn't go six innings. And he's gone past seven innings only once.

Zambrano rides gem to tenth victory

2008-07-09T23:59:00.000-05:00

Now it's Ted Lilly's turn.

Just a day after Ryan Dempster became the first Cub to ten wins, throwing seven innings while allowing just two hits and a run, Carlos Zambrano topped that performance -- one hit and one run in eight innings -- en route to his tenth win. Lilly, who is 9-5, will look to match his teammates on Thursday. If he does, that would mean the Cubs have three pitchers in double digit wins before the All-Star break and would also mean the Cubs sweep and get back to the season-best of 20 games over .500.

However, since there's so much good news going around with seven Cubs making the all-star team, the acquisition of Harden and Gaudin, and the Cubs pulling away from both the Cardinals and the Brewers, I might as well try to stay even-keeled and be critical of Lou Piniella. The Cubs' ace was on a pitch count of 105, and got pulled after 103 pitches and eight brilliant innings. I'm not arguing with that (actually, I would've lifted him sooner), but I am upset about who he turned to in the ninth inning.

I understand that he's trying to get Carlos Marmol back on track, but overworking him isn't the answer. Marmol started to slip a little bit when he was a little rusty, but calling his name day after day isn't going to be much help either. We should keep in mind that he is going to be a huge piece of the puzzle down the pennant race and into the playoffs; last year, Marmol seemed to have broken down in the postseason and we certainly don't want that to happen again. So why go to Carlos Marmol when you have a four-run lead and the other team has been able to muster just one hit through the first eight innings? It's not like he needed work; Marmol has now appeared in each of the last five games, while Jon Lieber has thrown just one inning in the last 12 days. Why not go to him? Or to Chad Gaudin and see what he's made of, up close and in person?

It could very well be that there is something wrong with Jon Lieber that the club doesn't want to tell everybody about. After all, we are carrying thirteen pitchers so close to the all-star break. But, Lou had plenty of other options to go to, but went to Marmol instead. Now, Marmol is unavailable for the series finale.

Last year, Lou Piniella used Marmol in longer situations. That was acceptable, because he was failed-starter Carlos Marmol back then, not relief-ace Carlos Marmol. Besides, we had three absolutely unhittable pitchers at the back end of the bullpen, so Marmol's role was more flexible. But with one of those unhittable pitchers (Howry) looking more human this year, another moving into the rotation, and the third grabbing the role as the closer, Piniella should change the way he handles Marmol. Time and time again, it seems like I hear Lou talking about how he needs to rest Marmol, but his actions directly contradict that.

Dempster first Cub to ten

2008-07-09T00:19:00.008-05:00

Ryan Dempster is a perfect 10-0 at Wrigley Field and becomes the first Cubs pitcher of 2008 to get into double digits. The great thing is, both Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly will each get a chance to match Dempster's ten before the all-star break.

Even though he's spent time on the disabled list, Carlos Zambrano will enter Wednesday's game against the Reds as an all-star and with a 9-3 record. Ted Lilly will pitch in the finale of the series against the Reds and is 9-5, despite starting the season 1-4.

As I see it, following Zambrano and Lilly will have to be Jason Marquis on Friday, unless Piniella wants skip him for a second straight time. With the all-star break coming up, that would put 18 days in between Marquis' starts and I don't think Piniella wants to do that. That means that Harden will be pushed back to Saturday (which is what Piniella wanted to do anyway) and Dempster will make the final start of the first half against fellow 10-game-winner and all-star Tim Lincecum.

----

Cubs' Pitching Schedule
YESTERDAY: Dempster
TODAY: Zambrano
TOMORROW: Lilly
FRIDAY: Marquis
SATURDAY: Harden
SUNDAY: Dempster
MONDAY:
ALL-STAR: Zambrano
WEDNESDAY:
THURSDAY:
FRIDAY: ???

----

Then, who starts the second half? Dempster won't pitch in the all-star game, because of Sunday's start, but coming back on the following Friday might not be such a great idea. Piniella also probably doesn't want to pitch Zambrano so soon after the all-star game, so that leaves Rich Harden.

Then problem then is throwing Harden and Zambrano back-to-back. Do we really want to do that? I'd put Lilly in the two-spot and have him followed by Zambrano, then Dempster. Daring to look as far ahead as the end of the month, it appears that the first four guys out of the gate in the second half will be the pitchers to throw in that crucial four-game series at Miller Park.

In any event, this means that Sean Marshall, who pitched so admirably in the rubber game in St. Louis looks to be the odd-man out. Marshall went six innings, allowing just a run on six hits while fanning four batters in Sunday's matinée against the Cardinals and after that game Piniella specifically stated that Marshall has earned another start. Turns out, the trade changes things. In fact, it might end up kicking Marshall off the major-league roster all together.

The Cubs traded a pitcher and a position player off the major league roster for two pitchers. Harden takes Gallagher's spot, plain and simple. But what about Gaudin? Certainly, he'll be on the 25-man roster, but he really can't take the place of Matt Murton.

Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol, Bob Howry, and Michael Wuertz are the best five relievers on the club, along with Gaudin and will undoubtedly stay on the roster. Certainly Jon Lieber's not going anywhere, and so the club is forced to choose between Cotts and Marshall as the lone left-hander in the bullpen. While it's possible that Cotts goes back to Iowa, it's probably more likely that the team will elect to keep Marshall as a starter and demote him to the minor leagues to make sure he throws regularly.

So, that leaves just one more question regarding the roster? Who takes Murton's spot as the fourth outfielder? After all, the club is only carrying three outfielders at the moment (plus DeRosa and Ward). Eric Patterson, who was on the shuttle between Des Moines and Chicago was involved the deal that brought Harden and Gaudin here, so that opens up a few possibilities. Here's a familiar name and food for thought: Jason Dubois is hitting .321 with 13 homers and a 1.166 OPS in AAA. And he's got an option left.

Of course, another trade could alleviate the whole situation, and I suspect that we'll see another before the deadline at the end of the month. With six major league starters on the ballclub at the moment and Lieber and Gaudin, both capable of making spot starts if necessary, it seems like we have a pitching surplus. Piniella never liked Marquis and he is owed $10MM next year...

Cubs take series at Busch, add Harden

2008-07-08T18:18:00.004-05:00

The Cubs finished the season-long ten-game road trip on a positive note, taking two of three from the Cardinals in Busch Stadium and capping the trip at a 4-6 record.

Right before embarking on this road trip just under two weeks ago, the Cubs had a 4 1/2 game lead on St. Louis and a 6 game advantage over Milwaukee, which has shrunk to 3 1/2 games and 4 games, respectively, but the expectation of maintaining the same lead after this road trip was a very optimistic view. Not having blown up on the road (like it looked like it was going to start) and actually managing to walk out of St. Louis with a series win keeps us at a considerable distance from the rest of the pack.

With six games -- all at home, all against sub-.500 teams -- until the break, the Cubs look like in prime position to finish the first-half of the season with a multiple-game lead. And helping the Cubs, not only for the six games until the break, but the 67 (and hopefully more) games after the break, are right handers Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin. Just a day after the Brewers added C.C. Sabathia to the mix, Jim Hendry has made a counter-move of his own. While the numbers so far this year might not look like it, Sabathia is probably a bigger land than Harden, but there are three reasons why we shouldn't worry: a) the Cubs are a better ballclub than the Brewers anyway, b) we didn't give up a huge chunk of the future, and c) we got a quality arm in the bullpen to add to the mix.

Most of you know what Rich Harden is capable of, so I'm not going to discuss that too much, except to say that our fourth best starting pitcher at the moment is most probably Ted Lilly. And our fifth starter would be Jason Marquis. I know there are a lot of you Marquis haters out there (I don't understand why), but I challenge any one of you to name a better number four starter in this league, let alone a fifth starter, that is better than Marquis. Oh, and we've still got Rich Hill in the minors, trying to sort through his shit.

And while the Brewers had to part with Matt LaPorta, the team's first-round draft pick of last year's draft, the Cubs had to give up I-don't-feel-like-trying Eric Patterson and dead-weight Matt Murton. Milwaukee lost some quality baseball players in their efforts to land C.C. Sabathia. The Cubs got better long before Harden and Gaudin will actually arrive at the Friendly Confines. Sure, Sean Gallagher was involved in the deal as well, but when you put Gallagher and Harden side-by-side, Harden is obviously the better pitcher -- in the short-run and the long-run.

When we traded with the Red Sox for Garciaparra or dumped Sammy Sosa off on the Orioles, many only saw the obvious impact that the superstars involved in the deal would create. I was careful to try to warn people of the so-called "other" players in the deal, such as Matt Murton or Mike Fontenot. While Murton didn't amount to too much during his stay with the Cubs, the potential for him to blossom into a star was there long after Nomar had left and was forgotten about. And while Jerry Hairston, Jr. and Sammy Sosa both seemed to be non-factors for their respective clubs, Mike Fontenot has done -- and is still doing -- a great job as a role player on the major league roster. Enter Chad Gaudin.

----
#57 Chad Gaudin
Bats: R, Throws: R
Age: 25

2006 (OAK): 4-2, 3.09 ERA; 11 HLD, 2/3 SV; 64.0 IP, 51 H, 22 ER, 42 BB, 36 SO.
2007 (OAK): 11-13, 4.43 ERA; 34 GS; 199.1 IP, 205 H, 98 ER, 100 BB, 154 SO.
2008 (OAK): 5-3, 3.59 ERA; 26 app (6 GS); 62.2 IP, 63 H, 25 ER, 17 BB, 44 SO.

Career (6 years): 24-23, 4.33 ERA; 421.2 IP, 446 H, 203 ER, 197 BB, 299 SO
----

Don't get me wrong: Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol, and Bob Howry (provided the latter two can keep their heads screwed on straight) are still the big three in the bullpen, but I see Chad Gaudin as someone of the caliber of Michael Wuertz, who can be counted on for a scoreless inning in a close game. Gaudin's probably not going to turn too many heads among Cubs' fans. Gaudin probably won't get too much national attention. But those that watch and follow the Cubs on a daily basis will be able to see that the 25-year-old right-hander will be a very usable piece out of the bullpen, not only this year, but years to come. The great thing about this move is that neither Harden and Gaudin will be a short-term rental. Harden is under contract through the 2009 season, while Gaudin just recently became eligible for salary arbitration.

Seven all-starts: Heading into the final days of voting, we all knew that Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto would be named as starters to the NL all-star team. We all knew that Kerry Wood would be selected, one way or another, to the team as well and Kosuke Fukudome was on the bubble. After that, we thought that Dempster and Zambrano had slim chances to make the team and that was supposed to be it. As it turns out, Soriano, Soto and Wood were named to the team, Fukudome ended up on the right side of that bubble, Dempster and Zambrano both made the team, as did Aramis Ramirez, for a franchise-record seven all-stars. Soriano won't play because of injury, Dempster won't play because he's going to pitch on Sunday, but the other five will most likely get into the game some way.

Cubs take opener at Busch

2008-07-04T22:07:00.002-05:00

After early solo homeruns from Kosuke Fukudome and Geovany Soto, returning ace Carlos Zambrano did his best to make those runs stick up. And he did.

But, after six strong innings and 87 pitches, the Cubs decided to pull the plug on the big right-hander. Certainly, I agree with that decision. Despite how large this series appears to be at the moment, the fact of the matter remains that it's still only the first week of July and there are still 15 or so starts remaining from him. But that meant that we needed to get three more innings out of the bullpen.

Normally, it would be obvious. Howry, Marmol, and Wood.

But with the recent struggles of Carlos Marmol, Lou Piniella had to get creative with the bullpen. Thankfully for him and the Cubs, Howry was able to set down the side in the seventh inning on just 7 pitches and was able to go into the eighth inning. Then, Cotts came in to get the final out of the inning against the lefty Rick Ankiel and set it up for Woody to toss a scoreless ninth for his 22nd save of the season.

However, what would Lou have done if Howry needed a full 20 or so pitches to get out of the seventh inning? Judging by how Piniella had his relievers warming up during the eighth inning, he probably would've gone back to Marmol. What would I have done? Well, this is one of the few times that I'm glad that I'm not the ones pushing the buttons. You guys know that I would love to be the one calling the shots, mainly because there wouldn't be anyone else to blame if things go wrong, but today was an example of why Piniella is paid the big bucks, so to speak.

About a week and a half ago, I talked about how I wanted to measure the success of this road trip. Starting with the finale at home with the Orioles, the Cubs have been scuffling. In the last nine games, the Cubs have won only a third of those games, going 3-6, and have seen both the Cardinals and Brewers catch up to them. The leads were 4 1/2 and 6 games at the time, and I wanted the boys in blue to hold this lead by the time this roadtrip was over. As it stands right now, we can still get back to those numbers, but at this point, I'd take a split with the Cardinals in the final two games, keeping the lead at 3 1/2 games.

Sox sweep Cubs, Piniella ejected

2008-06-30T15:00:00.004-05:00

From the beginning of the series, it was obvious who the better team was and who the team that wanted to win was. Starting with the bottom of the first inning of Friday's opener, you could tell that the Cubs were just going through the motions. On a routine fly ball to left field, Eric Patterson drifted back on the ball, caught it, and took his sweet time lobbing the ball back into the infield. Meanwhile, Orlando Cabrera tagged from first and advanced to second on the play, and later scored on a single by Dye.

In other words, Patterson's laziness directly gave the White Sox a run. As hard as it is to score in the game of baseball, our outfielders are literally handing our opponents runs because they don't want to be troubled with trying.

Two innings later, Patterson proved that incident wasn't an isolated event. Let's speculate for one second that Patterson just fell asleep at the wheel. That he really isn't lazy and just made a horrible mistake that he feels terrible about. Then, wouldn't he make sure that he puts forth some semblance of effort? In the third inning, after overrunning a groundball single by Pierzynski, he jogged after the ball, instead of going after it hard, allowing Pierzynski to advance all the way to third, instead of just second base.

Then, it's obvious that the Cubs quit after the grand slam that made the score 8-0. The Cubs, down by eight runs, had no thoughts about coming back and helping the team back. Instead, we were just swinging for the fences to boost the personal stats. Soto, Fontenot, and Edmonds each connected for solo homeruns, but the team still lost the game.

The Cubs' ineptness continued in the series until the very end. In the top of the ninth inning of the finale, with the tying run on deck and nobody out, Mark DeRosa got doubled off of second base on a line drive. The problem is that the tying run was on deck and there was no one in first base. Mark DeRosa's run doesn't mean anything, and everyone in the ballpark knew that. Everyone but DeRosa himself.

There was no reason at all for Mark DeRosa to even take a lead-off. On any hit, DeRosa's responsibility is to advance to third and stop. Instead, DeRosa had thoughts about scoring on Edmonds' line drive, probably to boost his personal stats, and was doubled off of second base.

Piniella ejected: On June 2 of last season, Lou Piniella was ejected by then-third base umpire Mark Wegner. This time, Mark Wegner was on the field at second base, and instead of June 2, it was the second to last day of June. Piniella, instead of arguing an out call at third base like he did last year, he ran towards first base to argue the lack of an out call. First-base/vacation umpire Chad Fairchild did the right thing. He put up his hand and told Piniella to turn his ass around. Piniella did and that was the end of it.

That is, until home plate umpire and also vacation umpire Rob Drake decided to throw Piniella out of the game behind his back. I understand that the rulebook says that anyone leaving their position to argue balls and strikes is to be ejected without warning. (Had Chad Fairchild ejected him, we wouldn't be having this discussion.) By the letter of the law, Rob Drake was right. In practice, it seemed like the minor-league umpire was just trying to put a notch on his belt. Piniella wasn't arguing a call that Drake made, but he felt the need to insert himself into the mix. I know from personal experience that umpires are trained to avoid confrontation; Rich Garcia told me so in person. But, like many other major league umpires we've seen in the recent past, Drake thought the game revolved around him. Whatever the situation, it doesn't look good for the umpire when he literally throws out the manager behind his back, and the manager doesn't realize it until the umpire gives him the thumb again.

Injuries, +20, and the bleachers

2008-06-26T01:01:00.002-05:00

As I was sitting in the bleachers at Wrigley Field for Wednesdays' 7-4 win over the Orioles, I realized that I wasn't writing in this blog nearly as much as I have been in the past year and nearly as much as I should. Without getting into the details of why I haven't been, which is outside of the scope of this blog, I promise to start writing here more often.

Anyway, sitting in the bleachers, I had filled out the scorecard how I thought Lou Piniella would've filled out his. Then, I hear that Eric Patterson is leading off and playing left field and now I have no idea what the fuck is going on. Immediately, I scribble out Edmonds' name that was previously listed fifth and write in Fukudome, trying to save face. I drop Edmonds to the seven hole, leaving Soto where he is and erase DeRosa's name and put it where I had Patterson: eighth.

But, Wayne Messmer continues the lineup and tells me that our number five hitter is in fact Jim Edmonds. As I'm sitting there thinking, "what the hell?" the lineup continues with DeRosa playing right field and Fontenot at second base. Fukudome isn't in the lineup. I suspect it was because he was going to get an off-day because a lefty was supposed to start for the Orioles and go along with that. With the bases loaded in the eighth, Piniella brings up Ward to pinch hit for Marmol. Now, I still argue that was the right move, but it puzzled me a little bit, because I knew that Lou would've turned to Fukudome. It turns out Fukudome was unavailable!

Carlos Zambrano and Reed Johnson were recently placed on the disabled list. Rich Hill, expected to be the team's number three starter, is in Mesa, as is our Opening Day center fielder. And Alfonso Soriano has been on-and-off the disabled list the entire season. Two years ago, this many injuries to the team would've absolutely shut us down. This year? No problem. We're 20 games over .500 and have the best record in baseball. Without trying to jinx us, it seems like we're unstoppable.

Normally, posts in my blog are to first- and second-guess the decisions made by the Cubs' managers during the game. While Piniella has made a few moves regarding Carlos Marmol in the bullpen over the past few weeks that I don't completely agree with, no specifics stick out at me right and I didn't write them down, so I guess I have to let those slide. Today's game? I would've hit Ward in the eighth inning and Lou did that...even though he had a choice. I would've yanked Lilly after six innings and went to Eyre for the seventh, but I don't think that Lou leaving him Ted in for the seventh was necessarily wrong, just not something I would've done. Marmol in the eighth and Wood in the ninth? Duh.

So, while I will once again promise to write more things about the in-game decisions and analysis of future ballgames, I will do mathematically analysis of the season for now.

On June 3 (happy anniversary, Sammy Sosa!), I posted about the great disparity between the record at Wrigley Field and away from it.

We have the best record at home, with an astonishing 26-8 mark at the Friendly Confines....Being on pace for 62 home wins, the 11-13 record we've posted on the road doesn't seem too bad. Obviously, we're going to fall well short of 62 home wins, but I'm hoping that we can play .500 ball on the road.

Well, since then, the Cubs have won seven of the last eight games at home, pumping the record up to 33-9 and the pace to 64 wins. I expected a "regression to the mean" effect for both the home and road records, and hoped that they would even out, but it actually seems like the disparity is now even more pronounced. Granted, I still don't expect to win 62 or 64 home games this season, and I'm still hoping to be a .500 team on the road. Our 16-20 record on the road, projections us for 36 road wins, so putting the two together still puts us at 100. We'll slow down at home, but I can't necessarily guarantee we will get all the way back to .500 on the road. But that's okay, we shouldn't need 100 wins.

The next couple of weeks should be interesting and could tell a large part of the story that is the 2008 championship season. After finishing off the series with the Orioles at home, the Cubs will embark on a ten-game "road" trip (with quotes, because three games are still in Chicago): three against the (ever-so-slightly) first-place White Sox, four on the West Coast where we always seem to struggle (despite a 4-3 earlier in the month), and three games at the home location of the team closest to us in the division race. As I mentioned before, normally, I like to break up the season into homestands and roadtrips and set a goal for each of these "mini-seasons". So, what's the goal for these upcoming ten (eleven, if you count the Orioles finale) games?

5-5?

If we win two of three in Chicago, three of four in San Francisco, and get swept by the Cardinals who have gone 9-1 during that same stretch, is it mission accomplished? I think not.

What about one in Chicago, two in San Francisco, two in St. Louis? Well, that sounds a lot better.

What about two in Chicago, two in San Francisco, and one in St. Louis? Okay, now I'm starting to get confused.

So, I don't usually like to do this, but I will set the goal for this ten-game roadtrip based on what the division standings look like right now. We lead St. Louis by 4 1/2 games and Milwaukee by 6 games. Including Thursday's home finale against Baltimore in these stretch of games if that'll help us achieve the goal better, the plan on July 7 is to be just as far ahead of the two teams chasing us as we are right now. Obviously, if we can achieve that, that would be great. If we fall short by a little bit, well, that's still okay, too. But this is the barometer that I choose to measure the next eleven games by.

I'll write back on July 7 to reflect on these results, but hopefully, I will write in the blog in between, as well.

A day at the bleachers: So, sitting in the bleachers for Wednesday's game was interesting. During the Orioles' batting practice, I wasn't watching and had a homerun ball literally fall in my lap and bounce away. So I ended up getting hit flush with a fly ball, scraping my knee going after it, and still not ending up with the ball. It's okay, though, because during the sixth inning, this drunk guy started chanting "right field sucks!" and I had to turn around to remind him that we were in right field. He was looking for "left field sucks!"

Where did our Cubs go?

2008-06-17T20:47:00.003-05:00

For the first 70 games of the season, the Chicago Cubs played solid baseball on their way to a league-best 45-25 record and a 3 1/2 game lead in the division. However, in Tuesdays' series opener in Tampa Bay, Lou Piniella's boys couldn't seem to function against their skipper's old team.

As I'm writing in this blog, Michael Wuertz is trying to get himself out of a jam created by a poor decision and errant throw from the previous pitcher: Neal Cotts. With the (Devil-less) Rays leading by a run in the seventh, leadoff man Akinori Iwamura hit a comebacker through the box. After one hop off of the ground and another off of the Cotts' leg, the ball bounded high in the air, causing the left-hander to wait for the ball to come down. It eventually did come down and Iwamura had crossed first base by then, but that didn't stop Cotts from uncorking a wild throw down the right field line. Mark DeRosa, giving Fukudome the day off against a left-handed Kazmir, failed to back up the play and Iwamura wound up at third representing a key insurance run.

The half inning before that, Reed Johnson hit a ball into left-center with two outs for what appeared to be a routine base hit. Realizing the situation, however, Johnson was hustling out of the box and never broke stride, eventually sliding into second with a hustle double. While that was a heads-up play, Johnson was caught stealing third just five pitches later to end the inning.

It was also Reed Johnson who made a poor decision in the fifth inning. With Iwamura on first base and running with the pitch, a rolling ball through the middle was fielded by Johnson. By this time, Iwamura had already been well past second base and was probably no more than forty feet away from third. This didn't stop Johnson from missing both of his cut-off men and making an ill-advised throw to third, although Upton held up at first base on the play.

Hall of Fame Game rained out: The final Hall of Fame game in Major League history was supposed to be played by the Cubs and Padres on Monday. The Cubs, finishing a three-game series in Toronto on Sunday, had to bus to Cooperstown for the skirmish before continuing to Tampa Bay the following night. Thankfully, the game was canceled due to inclement weather.

But we didn't get the full off-day that we should've gotten. Arriving in their St. Petersburg hotel late Monday night still gave the players plenty of time to sleep before the game, but that's a far cry from having unpacked and settled in by Monday afternoon. I don't understand why Major League Baseball insists on these stupid exhibition games in the middle of a championship season, but thankfully, they've decided to stop. Now only if we could abandon the idea that the World Baseball Classic is worth having.

Edit: At least the Cubs played some good baseball in the ninth inning. Aside from pinch-hitter Micah Hoffpauir failing to put the ball into play to tie the game, the other two pinch-hitters Kosuke Fukudome and Jim Edmonds showed great approaches at the plate and Fukudome was able get a good read on a Percival pitch that got away from Navarro and held ground at third, when it would've been very tempting to try to score the tying run. The pitch bounded right off the backstop and back to Navarro who quickly shoveled it to the right-hander covering home. Fukudome, had he tried to score, would've been out by a mile. Reed Johnson's attempt to knock in the tying run with a bunt single was also a good play, only to be overshadowed by an even greater play by the Rays' corner infielders to throw out Johnson.

This time around, it hurts

2008-06-11T23:51:00.001-05:00

Alfonso Soriano was injured for the fourth time in a Cubs' uniform in Wednesday's victory over the Braves. When he got hurt last April, we didn't know any better and we were concerned. Hurt again last August, I tried to encourage fans not to think that it was the end of the world. And it wasn't. We stayed afloat and Soriano came back and delivered what truly was a September to remember en route to a division championship.

Then, when Soriano hurt himself hopping before catching the fly ball earlier this April, we even laughed about it. At the time, Soriano was hitting .175 with a .230 on-base percentage and Reed Johnson was hitting .310 with a .394 on-base percentage. Soriano wasn't running and this meant that we would finally get a legitimate hitter in the one-hole, not to mention a legitimate lead-off hitter. Johnson filled in that hole admirably, and it seemed like we didn't miss a beat with Soriano out.

This time, it's a little different. Soriano wasn't the same useless player that he was in the five three weeks of this year. Since coming back, he hit .325 with 13 homeruns, while driving in 35 runs and scoring 29 times. In short, Soriano was the guy we expected to get when we signed him two years ago. Also, Reed Johnson has shown that he isn't capable of being an every-day, full-time player and in the last six weeks, Derrek Lee has been hitting just .226 and has refused to draw a walk to save his life, causing his on-base percentage to plummet from a glittering .437 to a mediocre .339 in less than a month and a half. (In case you're wondering, the league average -- which includes all pitchers, mind you -- is .332). Geovany Soto and Kosuke Fukudome have started to come back down to earth as well, you can't help but wonder how much longer Ryan Dempster can keep throwing the ball the way he has been, and we're all holding our breath to see how long Ryan Theriot can hit .320.

Hell, Soriano even bothered to start hustling for the first time since in a Cubs uniform.

But it's not all loom and gloom. There is a silver lining. The Cardinals, the only team in the division within shouting distance of us, just put Adam Wainwright and Albert Pujols on the disabled list and the Brewers are without Yovani Gallardo for the year. With Soriano out, there's a chance that he can return strong and finish with a September flourish similar to what he did last year.

Also, Jim Edmonds is starting to hit the ball with regularity and is a usable piece in the lineup. This may allow Piniella to move Theriot into the lead-off spot and hit Kosuke Fukudome where he's suited to hit -- second. With Lee, who, to be fair, has shown signs of stopping his Neifi Perez impersonation, following Fukudome and Ramirez right behind him, the team still has a chance to be the powerhouse that it has been for the first two months of the season. Obviously, this hinges on Edmonds (or Hoffpauir, if he plays left) doing the things that an everyday number five hitter can do (most specifically, protect Ramirez) and Soto fighting his expected regression to the mean as hard as he can.

I would expect to see Reed Johnson in left field for the most part and that means that the defense is certainly an upgrade. If we decide to even call up Matt Murton and/or Micah Hoffpauir to play left field, even they're much better than Soriano defensively. The team needs to respond, but not much too much pressure on themselves. An oxymoron? Yes. But, we certainly can't have the team folding like it did under Dusty Baker when Lee was injured for the majority of the 2006 campaign.

When the story hit the wires Wednesday that Albert Pujols would be out for three weeks, Cubs fans everywhere saw this as an opportunity to put some distance between themselves and the neighbors from St. Louis. Now, we head to bed on Wednesday, knowing that we've lost Soriano for about twice the length of time that Pujols is expected to be out, and now our goal has drastically changed.

Just stay afloat. You know, tread water.

Defense, an 8 game streak, and a 24 gamer

2008-06-03T00:09:00.005-05:00

It's been a while since I've last posted here. It was when we completed an 8-2 homestand, which started with a sweep of Arizona, then 3 of 4 from San Diego and 2 of 3 from the Pirates. (Remember that?) Since then, many things have happened that I wanted to talk about: Soriano pulled a Brant Brown just when we thought we had a 3-3 road trip locked up, but the Cubs come home and make up every bit of ground lost on the trip and then some, with a perfect 7-0 and then followed it up by taking the first game in San Diego.

At the risk of sending us into another mini tail-spin by posting here (that's what happened last time I did), there are a few things that have transpired over the last few weeks that should be addressed.

The first thing on the agenda is Soriano's defense. Over the last few weeks, Soriano has made some absolutely atrocious plays, including two drops of routine fly balls and an awful route he took to Gerut's pop fly (let's face it, that's what it was) in the first inning of Monday's game in San Diego. Even his arm -- the one thing that would make you hesitate pulling him from left field in the late innings -- is starting to fail him a little bit: several Colorado runners scored on Soriano towards the end of the most recent homestand, not necessarily because they outran the ball, but because many of Soriano's throws have either hit the runner or handcuffed Geovany Soto. With that having been said, I'm glad that Piniella has finally decided to lift Soriano for defense with a late lead, putting Edmonds and Johnson in the outfield at the same time. We don't have Felix Pie anymore, and even if Edmonds has lost a step or two (and it doesn't look like it), nothing can be worse than Soriano. Nothing. Not even Matt Murton.

But, the good news is Soriano has driven in more than he's let in. In the month of May, he's 40-116 (.345) with 10 homeruns, 29 RBI's, and has actually managed to squeeze in enough walks here and there to get the OBP to .386 on the month (for those keeping score, that's 117 points better than Lee's OBP). So all of the complaining you've been hearing about him has stopped. For the most part.

Moving onto the defense of another Cub player, Derrek Lee seems to have reverted back to his 2007 form of mediocrity. Okay, so he's actually better than that, probably even better than average, but people still think that he's playing A+ defense, when it's more like B+. Never mind the fact that Lee committed five errors in the first five weeks of the season, there were many plays that the 2005 Derrek Lee (the one that actually deserved the Gold Glove) would've made that the current Derrek Lee couldn't make.

It's the little things though. Things that the so-called "casual" baseball fans that think they know everything don't even realize. For example, in the sixth inning of the Cubs' 8-4 win over the Rockies (game 1), Willy Taveras was able to knock home two key runs with a ball fluttered over Derrek Lee's head. Lee got a slow break on the ball and timed his jump improperly and the ball ended up deflecting off of his glove and into the visiting bullpen. Earlier in that same game, with the lead just 1-0 at the time, Lee was unable to dig a relatively easy hop out of the dirt on a Theriot throw that allowed the Rockies to put runners at the corners with just one out.

And before you start screaming "you're being too hard on Derrek Lee!!!1!!1", let me clarify my point. Was Lee expected to make those plays? Certainly not! There's a reason why the Taveras play was ruled a single and why Theriot was charged with the error on the bad throw. But those were plays that Lee makes in 2005. Am I too spoiled for having a history of such good defensive first baseman? Probably. But before we go out and start engraving Lee's name in another Gold Glove award, let's look at him for what he is: a very good defender, but not a great one. At least not anymore.

But enough about the bad things, let's talk about all of the positives on the year! After all, we do have the best record in the league. After Monday's games, we have the best record at home, with an astonishing 26-8 mark at the Friendly Confines. Only Atlanta's 23-7 record at Turner Field comes close to our record, but they're 7-21 away from Atlanta. Being on pace for 62 home wins, the 11-13 record we've posted on the road doesn't seem too bad. Obviously, we're going to fall well short of 62 home wins, but I'm hoping that we can play .500 ball on the road. (After all, if Soriano did catch that fly ball, we'd be 12-12.) If that's true, we'll win more than the 37 road games we are projected to. All we need to do is pick up the pace on the road to off-set the inevitable "coming back down to earth" at home; hopefully, we can stay right around the 99 win medium. But, even if we fall short of that, you've got to assume that 95 or even 90 wins could be good enough for us to defend our division championship. Besides, I'm still not quite sure who the #1 contender is? Is it the Cardinals that are 3.5 games back? I don't really think so. The Astros? Ehh, not really. The Brewers? Maybe?

Let's take a step back though. It's only the first week of June. To put things into perspective, there's still over 100 games left to be played in the season. Right now, we can only worry about taking care of our own business. The #1 contender, if one exists, will emerge over the next couple of months, but there's not much we can do about it now. So, I prefer to break up the season into little mini-seasons determined by homestands and road trips. Last road trip, I wanted 3-3 and we fell short. Last homestand, I wanted 4-3 or maybe even 5-2 and got 7-0! Now, we've already taken the first game of this seven-game west coast trip. Can we split our final six and actually have a winning road trip? Boy, wouldn't that be nice?

The most impressive thing, this season, for me, however, is that we've held a lead in each of the last 24 games. )It's not Carlos Zambrano's 8-1 start or Dempster's 7-2 start or Wood's 15 saves, while all those are impressive!) The last time we never led in a game was when Jon Lieber got rocked to the tune of four homeruns in one inning in Cincinnati. If you don't remember that, you could be forgiven since you were probably studying for final exams!

"What's that?!?"

Yup. It's true. For every game the Cubs have played since we got out of school for the summer, Lou Piniella's boys have held a lead at some point during the game. Incredible!

Hot & Cold Streaks

2008-05-18T19:59:00.009-05:00

After finishing a very successful 8-2 homestand, the Chicago Cubs will start a brief six-game road trip in Houston. Now, all the Cubs fans know how hot Alfonso Soriano has been and Bob Brenly has called him the hottest hitter in baseball on several occasions, but that's simply not true. In fact, Soriano is not even the hottest hitter in own division!

Over the last eight games, Soriano has gone 20-36 for a .556 average. During that time, he's walked three times to bring his on-base percentage up to .561 and clubbed 7 homeruns and is slugging 1.222 during that time period. To give you perspective on how good that actually is, that kind of slugging percentage is a number we're used to seeing for an OPS of a batter who is on fire and so I have to reiterate: that's his slugging percentage!

Even so, Lance Berkman has been producing at a equally high clip, and even more impressively, he's been doing it for twice the time. Berkman has gone 35-for-his-last-60, a .583 clip. (Yes, that batting average is higher than Soriano's on-base percentage!) It's not like Berkman hasn't been walking, either. He's drawn 10 walks which puts his on-base percentage at .643, and his 8 homeruns over that stretch helped put his slugging percentage at 1.100. His OPS during that stretch stands at a robust 1.743.

But, as hot as both of these hitters have been, another one of the Cubs' superstars has been ice cold. I don't understand what the issue with Derrek Lee is, but no one else seems to notice or care exactly how bad he has been. In the month of May, Lee has just 12 hits, despite the fact that he's been playing every day. His 12-for-70 in the last 17 games is good for a .171 batting average, while his 5 walks for a .227 on-base percentage. Currently, he's in the middle of a 2-for-26 stretch!

I've put Lee's numbers in May side-by-side with Soriano's numbers before he went on the disabled list. You'll notice that not only has Lee been worse in just about every offensive category, he's been worse for a much longer period of time!

Alfonso Soriano, first 12 games:
10-57 (.175), 2 HR, 5 RBI, .250 OBP, .327 SLG

Derrek Lee, last 17 games:
12-70 (.171), 2 HR, 6 RBI, .227 OBP, .286 SLG

Don't excuse Derrek Lee's lack of performance as a "slump". A slump is when you go 3-for-16. Not only that, his approach at the plate for the last three weeks has been the worst I've ever seen in my lifetime! Yes, this includes all the time I've had to put up with Neifi Perez, Corey Patterson, and Soriano in the past! To say that Lee needs to be moved down in the order or given a few days off is a major understatement; those numbers and his approach are deserving a demotion!

Cubs struggling with basics

2008-05-17T13:42:00.004-05:00

Leave it to the Cubs to completely shut down on the basics of baseball during a 7-1 homestand.

After watching the first game of the series against Pittsburgh, I wondered how on earth they could've been 20-15 against other teams in the league. But, now in game two, I've noticed that it's a wonder we're over .500 at all, let alone ten games over.

Carlos Zambrano's start against Pittsburgh started off rough with a leadoff double to Freddy Sanchez and you could tell that he was going to have his problems. Through the first four innings, he was just getting by, instead of being the Carlos Zambrano that he was so far this season. After striking out at the plate in the bottom of the fourth and breaking his bat over his knee, Zambrano failed to record an out on the mound in the fifth despite pitching to five batters.

Derrek Lee has decided to stop trying as well. Okay, his defense hasn't struggled, but his approach at the plate is currently the worst on this ballclub. Whether it's rolling over pitches off the outside corner, or taking pitches down the middle and bending over at the waist in disbelief, his guessing game at the plate is really frustrating to watch. His batting average dropped 67 points in less than seventeen games and his on-base percentage dropped 72 points in that same span. So, exactly how bad has he been? Since April 30, he has just 12 hits in 65 at-bats (.185). That's Felix Pie territory!

It seemed as Kosuke Fukudome's patience rubbed off on the rest of the team for the first thirty-some games of the season, but over the recent past, the team's old habits seemed to have come back, and in turn, rubbed off on Fukudome. We've got Aramis Ramirez twirling his bat like some sort of magic act after strikeouts, Geovany Soto making us pine Michael Barrett's defense, Mark DeRosa intentionally slowing himself down by sliding head-first into first, and a middle reliever (Wuertz) who thinks he's too cool to cover first. I never thought I'd be saying this, but thank God for Alfonso Soriano. Without him, we wouldn't be scoring any runs at all! (But, even Soriano is not immune to being the hotshot that he is. He feels like he shouldn't have to run because he's doing well at the plate. Don't get fooled by the PR bullshit the Cubs try to spew at you; he's not hurt, he's lazy.)

Cubs sign veteran Edmonds

2008-05-15T05:02:00.001-05:00

Days after the last place San Diego Padres released Jim Edmonds, the first place Chicago Cubs signed him.

The angle that Jim Hendry is putting on this is that there isn't much to lose by the Edmonds signing. "You're not giving up players, you're not spending a lot of dollars," said the Cubs' GM. "Hopefully, he can give us a great portion of the Jim Edmonds we all knew and used to fear in a lot of ways." And while what he said is true; the Padres and Cardinals are paying $8M while we only pay the prorated league minimum, what Hendry fails to point out is what we might lose on the field.

-----
#15 Jim Edmonds - Outfielder
Bats: L, Throws: L
Born: June 27, 1970 (age 38)

2004 STL: 153 G, 498 AB; .301 AVG / 42 HR / 111 RBI / .418 OBP / .643 SLG
2005 STL: 142 G, 467 AB; .263 AVG / 29 HR / 89 RBI / .385 OBP / .533 SLG
2006 STL: 110 G, 350 AB; .257 AVG / 19 HR / 70 RBI / .350 OBP / .473 SLG
2007 STL: 117 G, 365 AB; .252 AVG / 12 HR / 53 RBI / .325 OBP / .403 SLG
2008 SDP: 26 G, 90 AB; .178 AVG / 1 HR / 6 RBI / .265 OBP / .233 SLG

16-year career totals:
1840 games, 6362 at bats; .286 AVG / 363 HR / 1127 RBI / .377 OBP / .526 SLG
-----

Edmonds is a lifetime .286 hitter, but there are very few who think that he can even come close to replicating that. Just five years ago, Edmonds put up monstrous numbers, where he clubbed 42 homeruns and drove in 111 in under 500 at-bats, but there's been a decided decline in basically all of his offensive numbers since. He was also a perennial gold glove winner, but he doesn't even stack up to being an average outfielder these days. Jim Edmonds is on his last breath. He's not the Jim Edmonds of old.

But is he actually worse than our other options in center field?

After a blistering hot start, Reed Johnson (who by the way was signed much in the same manner that Edmonds was) has cooled down. In fact, in his last 51 at-bats, Johnson has just 8 hits (.157). Felix Pie is hitting .222 on the year and has just 5 hits in his last 25 at-bats (.200). So, it appears that in the short term, Edmonds can't hurt us too much.

Yes, Piniella is considering hitting Jim Edmonds fifth in the lineup, but that's not so bad either. This finally puts Kosuke Fukudome in front of Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez while Theriot drops down to the eight slot. With Soriano clubbing the ball the way he is and with no reason to believe that Johnson or Pie will start hitting, it seems like we indeed don't have much to lose by giving Jim Edmonds a trial run. As Piniella sees Edmonds more and more, he’ll move him to an appropriate place in the lineup.

Even the roster move that we had to make reveals good things upon careful consideration. Certainly, Pie getting sent to Iowa hurts the big league ball club right now; he was a wonderful weapon to use off of the bench as a pinch runner and a defensive placement. But, he is going to get to play every day in Iowa. This can only help Felix Pie’s development and our situation in the future.

Digging deeper into the details of the Jim Edmonds signing shows that maybe Hendry was right: there isn’t much for us to lose. Over the past few years, Hendry has made some subtle moves that I’ve questioned. I didn’t like the signing of Mark DeRosa, but we know that he was arguably our most valuable player last year. I was indifferent to the signing of Reed Johnson, but he’s been a positive addition to our team. There’s a reason why Hendry is the general manager and I’m not. Before we jump down his throat about this move, I say we give Edmonds a chance.

In the short term, he can’t be any worse than Johnson and Pie. In the long term, Edmonds has a higher ceiling. Let’s face it, even his 2007 numbers would be a welcome addition to center field.

If Edmonds goes 3-for-his-first-20, we can rest assured that Piniella won’t put up with that. But if he can provide one-half of a center field platoon that hits a combined .260 for even just one month and play tolerable defense in a much smaller park, he will have contributed to the ballclub.

One thing’s for certain though. It’s going to take me a while to get used to seeing “Edmonds (CHC)” in my away messages.

Cubs improve to 15-6, but with no help from Lou

2008-04-24T02:36:00.004-05:00

I guess if your team is as good as the Cubs have been playing, you really don't need to pay attention to the in-game moves you make as a manager. At least, that must've been what Lou Piniella was thinking.

All of you know that I've had very little issues with the way Piniella has managed the ballclub, but his decisions in Wednesday's extra inning win over the Rockies brought me back to the days of Dusty Baker managing the Cubs. No, actually, even Dusty wasn't this bad...

Down by a run in the ninth inning, Derrek Lee stroked his fourth hit of the game: a one-out single into right field. But, the most shocking thing was when Pie popped out of the dugout and ran for Lee. Granted, Lee left several of the recent blowouts early because he was battling a sore neck, but taking the best player out of the game in a one-run game in the ninth is absolutely absurd, unless he physically was unable to continue playing. That wasn't the case; there was no mention of a Lee injury after the game.

Never mind the fact that Lee runs well (which he does). Never mind the fact that there was a strong possibility that the game would go into extra innings (which it did). Never mind the fact that there was a strong possibility that Lee's spot in the lineup would come up again (which it did). We needed to keep Derrek's glove on the field. Mark DeRosa played first base for the final two innings of the ballgame and played it well, but some of the incredible plays that Lee has already made earlier in the season were plays that swung games. We shouldn't have taken that risk.

Then, in the tenth inning, after Theriot singled home what would be the go-ahead run, Jason Marquis was summoned to pinch run for Daryle Ward at second base. Now, you might ask "What was wrong with that?", but the issue was that Ward was allowed to run for himself at first base after he was intentionally walked. I had theorized that perhaps Marquis, who was the next day's starter, was already back at the team hotel. That's standard practice for many teams, especially with a day game following a night game. But, that wasn't the case. Simply, Piniella waited to make a move that he was going to make anyway.

No Soriano, No Problem

2008-04-22T03:54:00.002-05:00

At the risk of setting on a jinx (we're 13-6 on the year and 13-5 since I last wrote here), I sense something coming so I have to write about it. This is for all you ignorant people out there. The people who say that it's always so easy to second guess a move, just because it turned out poorly. I've never second-guessed any move based on the result alone. In fact, the result is pretty insignificant when it comes down to it. (For example, pinch hitting Rich Hill for Derrek Lee close and late in a ballgame is a bad move, no matter what. Even if Hill drives in the winning run, it's a bad move.)

But, there are those of you that think that you haven't actually accomplished anything if you don't pre-emptively make these kinds of statements. So, here it is.

Since the injury to Alfonso Soriano, many Cubs have had different opportunities to flourish in different roles. Reed Johnson has fit very nicely into the leadoff slot for the team and Ronny Cedeno is making the most of his extra playing time. In fact, in his last three games, Cedeno has five hits and five RBI and a ton of good at-bats. He hit eighth all three games, but did well, so he should be moved up, right?

Wrong.

While I know this may sound a little over dramatic (but please understand, I'm intentionally doing this to make a point), this is a huge point in Ronny Cedeno's career. He was supposed to be the shortstop of the Cubs' future but has continuously struggled and saw Ryan Theriot leapfrog him on the depth chart. Cedeno had a good winter, but probably should not have made the team on his own merits. The way it turned out though, Murton had options, Cedeno didn't. So Ronny stayed.

Now, he's starting to find his groove, coming up with clutch base hits, and starting to find a rhythm. Let's not mess with that. I certainly agree that Ronny Cedeno has earned himself at least one, if not two or three, starts in the lineup, but moving him up in the lineup would be a preposterous idea! Never mind the fact that Johnson and whichever Cajun plays that day make up a good 1-2 punch at the top of the lineup, you don't want to put Cedeno in a big spot. Let him hit in the eight hole. If a big spot naturally comes to him, so be it. But, the last thing you want is the heart of your lineup rolling through late in the game and seeing Cedeno's name in the mix.

Granted, if two weeks from now, Cedeno is still seeing the ball well, it's something to consider. After three games, though? He's earned nothing more than staying in the lineup for the immediate future.

Poor umpiring: While watching our 7-1 victory over the Mets, I saw two horrible calls made by the men in blue. In the sixth inning, Mark DeRosa was called out by homeplate umpire Angel Hernandez on a check swing. I never understand when umpires do that. There's no reason to try to get a notch on your belt. Just get the call right, ask the base umpire. Besides, if you, as the plate umpire, are claiming that you did get a good look at the bat, then you didn't pay enough attention to the thing you are supposed to be watching: the pitch! Then, in the eighth inning, Mets set-up man Aaron Heilman balked twice in a span of one second, but none of the umpires caught that.

I should point out, though, that I get upset when people bitch about the umpires. Everyone's quick to blame losses or bad calls on umpires, but when your team catches a break due to a bad call, it seems to be forgotten. For that reason alone, I feel obligated to remind everyone that it took two blown calls from Adrian Johnson and ten innings for us to avoid the sweep in Philadelphia earlier in the month.

Nothing Piniella could do about it...

2008-03-31T17:52:00.003-05:00

What a heartbreaker.

Looking back at Opening Day 2008, it would be easy for fans to question how Piniella handled the pitching staff, especially towards the end of the game. But, there really wasn't much Lou could've done with the situation; he pushed all of the right buttons and unfortunately for us, the players just couldn't execute on the field.

I know people will call for Kerry Wood's head. I know people will want Carlos Marmol to be the closer, but the fact that Marmol was even in consideration for the closing job was outrageous. Marmol is nothing more than an unproven journeyman who had one career year last year. To hand him the reins of the closing duties for the defending NL Central Champions is a ridiculous thought. Personally, I would've preferred Howry (actually, everyone knows that I would've left Dempster right where he is), but Wood was an equally acceptable choice. Let's not jump down the their throats; they'll be incredibly valuable pieces of the puzzle down the road.

But, there were many other things that could've changed the outcome of today's game, and it's clear that the Cubs are either still trying to shake off of the rust from Spring Training or have picked up right where they left off in 2007 as far as athletic effort.

With Fukudome on 3rd base in the second inning, Felix Pie struck out on a Sheets breaking ball in the dirt to end the inning, but didn't get a quick start out of the box. Even after the late break, Pie barely jogged down the first base line only to have an errant Kendall throw pull the first baseman off of the bag. Fielder calmly stepped off the bag, received the throw, and kicked the cushion a full step ahead of Pie. Now, what if Pie was running at full speed right away? Does he beat the throw? Does Kendall throw it away? Who knows?

Geovany Soto also showed that he had a long way to go. With two men on and just one out, Soto stepped up the plate in the 7th inning to try to break what was then a scoreless tie. Kendall blocks a pitch in the dirt and the ball caroms off of Soto in the box. Meanwhile, Fukudome reads a wild pitch and starts to break for third, only to be trapped in no man's land when the ball lands in front of Kendall's feet. Now what's my point? Veteran ballplayers are usually good at motioning to the baserunners whether to stay or go on a pitch in the dirt, but Soto stood there motionless. Again, I'm not saying that Fukudome wouldn't have been picked off had Soto told him to stay put; in fact, Fukudome got such a great jump, he was probably forty feet off the bag by the time the ball hit Soto. But, the least Soto could do is inform his teammates as to the location of the baseball.

Also, in the tenth inning, Soto took a roundabout route to a Braun pop fly with two men out in the inning. Again, the play didn't seem to hurt us directly, as Braun was later fouled out to Fukudome (who, by the way, never gave up on the ball because he knew which way the wind was blowing), but Soto again showed that he definitely could use some improvement on the more subtle aspects of the game. Everyone in the ballpark (and most of us at home) knew that the ball was going to land down the third base line. Everyone but Soto.

After all, in the bottom half of the same inning, veteran catcher Jason Kendall quickly accounted for the wind on a Soriano foul out and was positioned perfectly by the time the ball reached ground level again.

The team also needs to work on infield communication. On a play to begin the seventh inning, a pop up near the mound caused a collision between Lee and Zambrano, which eventually led the early exit of our pitcher. Granted, I'm not saying this changes the outcome of the game either. Had Zambrano tossed eight scoreless innings, I still turn the ball over to Wood in the ninth and Howry in the tenth. But what is clear is that something went wrong. We certainly don't want our all-star first baseman clipping our ace pitcher every time a pop fly is hit on the infield.

So maybe Piniella can be blamed for the out-of-game ways he handled his team. Certainly, it's his responsibility to make sure that the players have all these things sorted out before they break camp. (Or at the very least, his responsibility to make sure someone else gets it sorted out.) But, Piniella made all of the right in-game decisions.

Now only if we could've gotten Fukudome up to the plate in the tenth...

After day off, Cubs return

2008-03-18T15:06:00.002-05:00

The Cubs are 7-12 after taking their off-day in the Cactus League season and the roster for Tuesday's exhibition game looks a lot like what we might expect to see on March 31.

But, the way the 25-man roster will shape up on Opening Day is actually less clear now that what it was heading in the Spring Training. Here is how I see the depth chart. The names in bold are locks and the stats you see are the Cactus League numbers. They have been sorted so it's best to see what the team might look like.

STARTING PITCHERS
Carlos Zambrano (1-0, 0.60 ERA in 14 IP)
Ted Lilly (6.00 ERA in 9 IP)
Rich Hill (0-1, 6.35 ERA in 11 IP)
Jon Lieber (1-0, 1.80 ERA in 10 IP)
Jason Marquis (0-1, 2.00 ERA in 9 IP)
Ryan Dempster (2-1, 6.75 ERA in 10 IP)
Sean Marshall (3.24 ERA in 8 IP)

RELIEVERS & CLOSERS
Kerry Wood (3.86 ERA in 9 IP)
Bob Howry (11.81 ERA in 5 IP)
Carlos Marmol (1.29 ERA in 7 IP)
Scott Eyre (9.82 ERA in 3 IP)
Michael Wuertz (0.00 ERA in 6 IP)
Tim Leahy (1.23 ERA in 7 IP)
Kevin Hart (2.70 ERA in 6 IP)
Neal Cotts (12.00 ERA in 6 IP)
Carmen Pignatiello (0.00 ERA in 4 IP)
Jose Ascanio (6.43 ERA in 7 IP)

CATCHERS
Geovany Soto (.241/.353 in 29 AB)
Henry Blanco (.200/.238 in 20 AB)

INFIELDERS
Derrek Lee (.167/.262 in 36 AB)
Mark DeRosa (.267/.353 in 15 AB)
Aramis Ramirez (.263/.391 in 19 AB)
Ryan Theriot (.333/.349 in 42 AB)
Daryle Ward (.500/.522, 2 HR in 22 AB)
Mike Fontenot (.250/.341, 2 HR in 36 AB)
Micah Hoffpauir (.439/.442, 2 HR in 41 AB)

OUTFIELDERS
Alfonso Soriano (.370/.419, 2 HR in 29 AB)
Kosuke Fukudome (.229/.378, HR in 35 AB)
Felix Pie (.290/.371, 2 HR in 31 AB)
Matt Murton (.359/.419 in 39 AB)
Sam Fuld (.172/.359 in 29 AB)
Eric Patterson (.300/.362, HR in 30 AB)

The way I see it, it's still foolish to try to project the 25-man roster with a week-plus of games remaining and the rumors of a Brian Roberts deal still lingering. However, Tim Leahy looks like he's throwing the ball well enough to make the team and Jon Lieber seems to have earned a spot in the rotation.

With the lack of a clear fifth outfielder and the fact that Micah Hoffpauir is on fire this spring, could there be a chance that Piniella decides to break camp with seven infielders and four outfielders? Besides, Ward, DeRosa and Hoffpauir can all play a corner spot in the outfield in a pinch.

Marquis' arguments justified

2008-03-01T19:57:00.006-06:00

I don't understand all of the Jason Marquis hate going around here.

Jason Marquis has won 54 games in the last four years, including at least 12 in each of those years and he is being forced to compete for a job in the rotation? I understand where Piniella's coming from: he does have seven starters, but to say that all seven pitchers are on the same level playing field is ridiculous.

Granted, with the amount of capable options, Marquis could lose the job during Spring Training, but he should be as much of a lock for number four as Rich Hill is for number three. If my number four starter can win 14 games while posting a 4.60 ERA, I'd be ecstatic. And that's exactly what Jason Marquis has been averaging since 2003; he's got potential to be even better. I challenge all of the Marquis haters to name a better number four in this league. He might be one of the top three (if not the best) #4 starter in the National League today!

Dempster should be fighting for a spot in the rotation. Lieber should be fighting for a spot in the rotation. Marshall should be fighting for a spot in the rotation. Not Marquis.

But what are you going to do? Send Marquis to the minor leagues? Move him to the bullpen? He's an established big league starter and he should remain that way. I, too, am upset that he is being asked to compete for a job.

For once, I do agree with the player.

Partly, blame Jim Hendry for this for signing Lieber. (Note that I say blame in the same tone that I call having too many pitchers a problem.) Initially, we suspected that the Lieber signing was because the Cubs planned to flip Marquis or Marshall to the Orioles in a trade for Brian Roberts. Judging by the Cintron signing, we still think that a Roberts deal is in place, and there's still a very good chance that this thing gets done.

We'll see how things turn out.

Wood, Howry compete for closing job: With Kerry Wood and Bob Howry competing for the spot as the club's closer, both allowed at least a run in their Saturday Cactus League outing. However, I can't help but noticing that both pitchers threw the ball extremely well. Wood got victimized for three bloop hits and a homerun that looked like a shallow fly coming off the bat and Howry also suffered a slew of soft hits.

If you ask me, both showed they are capable of closing. But we already knew that.

Here we go again...

2008-02-24T11:56:00.002-06:00

The first game in Spring Training hasn't even started yet and already the Cubs are fibbing on the health of their players.

Mark DeRosa was taken to a hospital on Saturday after experiencing an irregular heartbeat. The initial report had said that he was released from the hospital that night. Only another report came out today, saying that he actually stayed in the hospital overnight.

Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not trying to say anything negative about DeRosa or minimize his condition. I understand that it's a scary situation and I know that it's an issue DeRosa has had before. What I'm confused about is why the team initially reported that he had been released. It didn't say that he was expected to be released or that he was going to be released. But, the report said that he was already released. Obviously a lie, since now they are saying he spent all of Saturday night in the hospital.

Quite frankly, I don't understand why they find a need to lie about things like this. As far as an injury is concerned, I can understand why they might lowball the injury: to play a little gamesmanship to the other teams and a little optimistic thinking. But why would you lie about something like where a ballplayer spent the night in the middle of February. The season is still a good six weeks away, and we all know (at least, we think so) DeRosa will be ready to go come March 31 and much before then. So what's with the lies?

Anyway, it looks as though Kerry Wood has yet to slip in a hot tub or have his arm fall off. Let's hope at least he can stay healthy.

Marmol throwing winterball?!?

2008-02-03T20:17:00.000-06:00

So, I was glancing over the rosters for the Winter Caribbean Series that is going on right now and imagine my surprise when I saw our ace reliever, Carlos Marmol's name on the roster!

After the type of season that Carlos Marmol posted last year, plus my already quivering confidence that he had a fluke season, I would've thought that the number one thing on Carlos Marmol's to-do list this winter is rest. Especially after the signs of fatigue he showed in late September and the postseason.

But, nope. Carlos Marmol is pitching for the Dominican Republic, less than two weeks before pitchers and catchers are supposed to report to Spring Training. I'm not sure what Marmol hopes to achieve in winter ball. He's got a spot solidly locked in the thick of the Cubs bullpen for 2008; only bad things can come out of this decision.

For what it's worth, though, Marmol has been pitching well. In two appearances, Marmol has tossed 2 1/3 innings of hitless, shutout ball, allowing just one walk while fanning five.

Looking ahead to 2008

2008-01-21T14:19:00.001-06:00

A couple of days ago, Lou Piniella announced what he thinks he would most likely use as the Opening Day lineup on March 31. I'm sure all of you have seen it by now, but here it is anyway:

Soriano, lf
Theriot, ss
Lee, 1b
Ramirez, 3b
Fukudome, rf
DeRosa, 2b
Soto, c
Pie, cf
Zambrano, p

While I don't necessarily disagree with his choices, I would do some things differently. I'm not trying to say that Piniella's lineup is undoubtedly wrong, like some of Baker's choices were, but if I had it my way, the lineup would read...

1. Alfonso Soriano
Okay, so he's not your typical lead-off hitter and his bat would be more useful elsewhere in the lineup, but let's face it: if Soriano doesn't get to lead off, he bitches and moans. Having him lead off might as well have been a clause in the contract that brought Soriano to the Cubs long term. When we were signing him, we knew what we were getting ourselves into. Hopefully, he'll be happy and keep his mouth shut.

2. Mark DeRosa
This may be the toughest decision in the lineup. Those that are for Theriot being in this spot prefer DeRosa in a run-producing spot in the lineup. But, we saw that Theriot's productivity goes down with each passing at-bat and while he should be a little more acclimated to a full season in 2008, we should still try to protect Theriot as much as possible. Besides, Theriot finished with an on-base percentage below Soriano's last year; I don't want a pair of .320-something's at the top of the order.

Theriot does a lot of things that a two-hole hitter should do: take pitches, lay down bunts, and hit behind the runner. But what's the point in having a prototypical number two hitter if you don't have a lead-off man that gets on base. Among the very few times that Soriano reaches, an unusually high proportion of those times will be a double or a homerun. Soriano usually doesn't stop at first base.

(If we get Roberts, he hits here. Soriano is the lead-off man. Period.)

3. Derrek Lee

4. Kosuke Fukudome
I fully expect Fukudome to be able to, at the very least, match Cliff Floyd's production from 2007. With that having been said, that should translate to about a .370 on-base percentage and 10-15 homers with a load of doubles. I had no problem hitting Floyd in between Lee and Ramirez and Fukudome is faster and has potential to be greater than Floyd, so why shouldn't he get to bat here? Besides, breaking apart Lee and Ramirez with a lefty in between can never be a bad thing.

5. Aramis Ramirez

6. Geovany Soto
Maybe I'm stretching a little bit with Geovany Soto, but I have him penciled in for production similar to what Michael Barrett has been doing for us in the past few years. That's a .280 or better average with about 15 homers and 20 or more doubles. If he can do that, then he provides more than enough protection for Ramirez in the lineup, especially if Lee and Fukudome reach base ahead of him. Teams would think twice before loading up the bases to get to Soto...

7. Ryan Theriot

8. Felix Pie
Felix Pie is surrounded by six very good bats and a seventh very capable bat. The way he plays defense, I would be okay with Pie brought little to no production offensively. As long as the top seven can mash the ball and the pitching lives up to expectations, there is no reason why you wouldn't run Pie out there every day.

General Notes:
Obviously, this lineup shouldn't be set in stone. If Ryan Theriot gets hot and proves that maybe he could maintain an on-base percentage around .350 for the entire year, then he would probably be the best candidate for the two-hole hitter. If you remember, Felix Pie also hit second for a small portion of the season last year and did very well. I don't expect Lou to write the Opening Day lineup exactly for 100 games out of the season; it's just a starting point.

Lou's starting point is an okay starting point. I think my starting point is equally valid. Once we are three-plus weeks into the season, the starting point won't matter anymore. Lou showed his willingness to flip-flop the order and juggle the roster when things weren't working and so it's really not a big deal what the team looks like on the first day. Once the season gets going, Piniella will make the appropriate changes, if necessary. Whether he's right or I'm right or a combination of the two, you can rest assured then when the pieces fall into place, Lou will know what to do with them.

1. Carlos Zambrano
What a nutcase this guy is. He wanted to let Lilly start on Opening Day, but that's not his decision to make. Carlos Zambrano is the ace of this team, despite what I may have said or thought at certain points during the 2007 season. Sure, there are times when another pitcher might be hotter than Zambrano, but in the grand scheme of things, few are better than Zambrano. I would start him on Opening Day, and Lou has said he would as well.

2. Ted Lilly

3. Rich Hill
Wow, this 1-2-3 is about as good as they come. I honestly believe that Zambrano, Lilly and Hill could combine for as many as 45 wins in 2008. (Zambrano just over 15, Lilly around 14-15 and Hill just under 14-15.)

4. Jason Marquis
I know a lot of people don't like him, but I don't understand why. Marquis has won 12 or more games in each of the last four seasons. And while I don't know the exact record of the Cubs in games in which Marquis has started, Marquis personally went 12-9. This means the team was, most probably, over .500 in all of Marquis' games. It's not like we need him to be the ace of the ball club; winning more than half of your games started by your number #4 starter is pretty good.

5. ??????
Sean Marshall filled in admirably in this role last year and he, among others, will be in the running for this spot. Ryan Dempster was moved out of the closing role, presumably to make room for Wood, but also to compete for this spot. Sean Gallagher is also in the mix, as is Kevin Hart.

Then, last week, the Cubs signed former 20-game winner Jon Lieber. Despite the fact that he has battled with injuries (albeit, not arm related) and that he will be 38 this season, Lieber will most likely be the fifth starter as long as he's healthy and consistent.

Closer: Bob Howry
I don't understand why Dempster was taken lost this job. A closer's duty is simple: finish the game with your team winning. If a closer has a three-run lead, any baseball enthusiast knows that he should go out there and pump strikes. He does, and the batter inexplicably swings at the first pitch and hits a homerun. How is Dempster to blame?

Throwing more strikes with a multiple run lead is the obvious thing to do. Even though you know that you'll give up the occasional solo bomb, that's still what you expect the guy to do. So don't blame him for the homeruns that he does give up. The closer's job is the preserve the lead, and Dempster ranked second in the league in save percentage last year.

Anyway, Wood is the popular choice and also appears to be Lou's choice. I would much rather see Howry as the team's ninth inning man (too late to move Dempster back now) as he has done it before, but I suppose Wood might have a higher ceiling.

RH Set-Up: Kerry Wood

LH Set-Up: Scott Eyre
As bad as he was for parts of the season last year, the fact that he lowered his season ERA all the way to 4.13 says a lot about how good was as well. Exactly how good was he? How about 2 runs and 17 hits in his final 25 innings? Oh yeah, he's definitely re-earned the role of being the top dog (and maybe only dog) among lefty relievers.

Middle Relievers: Carlos Marmol, Michael Wuertz
The fact that Marmol and Wuertz are considered the fourth and fifth best relievers in the bullpen should say something about how good the bullpen is. Marmol has little to no experience pitching as a closer, let alone as a closer for an entire season. We saw him starting to show the kinks in the armor late in the season, which is something that you won't see from Howry and Wood.

Until Marmol proves to me that he didn't have a fluke season (see: James Baldwin), he is at least third in line for the closing job.

Two spots remaining...
Tim Leahy immediately pops to mind, because we traded for this Rule 5 pick. A second lefty, either Ascanio or Pignatiello, also raises some eyebrows. Kevin Hart impressed a lot of people at the end of the season last year and the loads of pitchers that competed for and didn't get the fifth starting job also get thrown into the mix here.

Hendry and MacPhail are still talking potential trades and there's also a month of preseason before the roster needs to be cut down to 25, so trying to pick the two guys that would make the roster right now would be foolish.

Cubs, Lieber re-unite

2008-01-16T16:13:00.000-06:00

While the rumors about Brian Roberts coming to the Cubs appear to be on-again, off-again, the team did announce that they have agreed to a deal with former 20-game winner Jon Lieber.

The one-year deal worth at least $3.5MM puzzles me, as I don't expect Lieber to bring more to the table than what Dempster is capable of. Nonetheless, the deal does bring options for the team and that can't be all that bad. It might come at a slightly high price, but options are options.

Among those options include trading either Rich Hill, Jason Marquis or Ryan Dempster. While Hill would definitely put more meat on the table, Cubs' GM Jim Hendry has said that Hill, like Pie, is untouchable. Another option is to move Dempster back into the bullpen, though it's unlikely that Piniella would consider him for the closing role. In any event, speculation is that Lieber will make the rotation somehow and Sean Marshall would be the sixth man.

Quite frankly, I hope that Jason Marquis stays in the rotation, because otherwise it would mean that both Dempster AND Lieber will be. Whether or not Dempster can return to being a starter is a large question mark and Lieber's health and ability to pitch at his age is equally uncertain. Sure, they both have upsides, but with Marquis, you know that you'll be getting at least 12 or 13 wins. If our top four pitchers could combine for 55+ wins, we'd be in good shape.

Cubs close to landing all-star Roberts

2008-01-09T12:14:00.001-06:00

A couple of sources have reported that Roberts was traded to the Cubs, only to have other sources come out and say those reports are false. However, the general consensus is that the deal is all but finalized. Gallagher, Marshall, and Cedeno would be going in the other direction.

I'm getting giddy just thinking about our lineup for 2008. Should Roberts lead off? Yes. Will he lead off? I don't think so.

1. Alfonso Soriano
2. Brian Roberts
3. Derrek Lee
4. Aramis Ramirez
5. Kosuke Fukudome
6. Geovany Soto
7. Ryan Theriot
8. Felix Pie

Not bad. Not bad at all.

In a dream world, Roberts would be a shortstop or center fielder, so he can replace either Theriot or Pie and keep Mark DeRosa in the same lineup. In a dream world, DeRosa could slide over and play shortstop to replace Theriot. (In a dream world, Soriano would move down in the lineup.) Even so, the opportunity to land of a guy the caliber of Brian Roberts should not passed up and Hendry realizes it.

While I haven't seen eye-to-eye with Jim Hendry on most of his moves, I want to applaud Hendry for being able to get this deal done without trading Rich Hill, Felix Pie or Matt Murton. (I guess it proves that MacPhail is even worse than Hendry?) Some would've been willing to give up Hill for Roberts and it would've been something that I would've had to think about long and hard about. Gallagher, Marshall, and Cedeno? I don't need to think about that one. And while Felix Pie doesn't impress me, he's our best option at center field and considering the perceived value of Pie on the market, Hendry deserves to be commended for his ability to land Roberts while keeping Hill and Pie.

Again nothing is official yet, but it's close. Real close.

Mets re-acquire outfielder Angel Pagan

2008-01-05T14:48:00.001-06:00

The Chicago Cubs have dealt outfielder Angel Pagan for two prospects.

Pagan, originally drafted by the Mets in the 4th round of the 1999 draft, spent two major league seasons with the Cubs posting a .255 batting average and hitting 9 homeruns in 318 at-bats. Pagan was originally slated to compete against Sam Fuld for the fifth outfielder's spot on the 2008 roster, but it looks like the Cubs are trying to make room for the 2007 Arizona Fall League MVP.

In return, the Mets have sent A-ball pitcher Ryan Meyers and outfielder Corey Coles the other way. Meyers, 22, served as the closer for Savannah (A) last year, recording 13 saves. Coles, soon to be 26, hit .342 with 27 doubles and 21 steals in a full season with St. Lucie (Advanced-A) in 2006, though he's struggled a bit while bouncing around different levels of the Mets' farm in 2007.

Meanwhile, it looks like rumors about closer Joe Nathan coming to the Cubs will not happen and the story with second baseman Brian Roberts has also considerably cooled down, though there's still a chance for that.

Cubs, Fukudome agree on four-year deal

2007-12-12T05:31:00.000-06:00

The Chicago Cubs and Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome have agreed on a four-year deal believed to total anywhere from $48MM to $50MM. Fukudome, 30, will likely serve as the team's everyday right fielder, while it is uncertain where in the lineup he will hit.

Exactly how well with Fukudome fare in America?

-----
KOSUKE FUKUDOME - OUTFIELDER

2005 CD: 515 at-bats; .328/.430/.590 with 39 doubles and 28 HR.
2006 CD: 496 at-bats; .351/.438/.653 with 47 doubles and 31 HR.
2007 CD: 269 at-bats; .294/.443/.520 with 22 doubles and 13 HR.
-----

Before choking on that .440 on-base percentage, it's important to realize that his batting average going down will drop the on-base percentage considerably too. Not only that, American pitchers walk fewer batters, so that will hurt it even more.

Judging by the numbers of other Japanese stars like Hideki Matsui and Tadahito Iguchi and how they reacted to Major League Baseball, I thought that Fukudome would perform around .290/.360/.480 with 15 homeruns and 25 doubles in a full, healthy season. The experts seem to be a bit more optimistic.

The PECOTA system projected Fukudome at .289/.401/.504 with 30 doubles and 15 homeruns in just 395 official times at-bat. The CHONE system is a little more down to earth, but still expects .283/.373/.465 with 38 doubles and 16 homers in a full season. ZiPS projects Fukudome at 457 AB going .293/.382/.460 with 33 doubles and 13 homers.

It seems like many of computers think that Fukudome can keep his doubles total real close to what it was in Japan. If he can continue to hit 30-40 doubles and keep that on-base percentage in the .380's, Fukudome would be a great addition to the team. I would definitely hit that version of Kosuke Fukudome in the cleanup spot.

LF Soriano
2B DeRosa
1B Lee
RF Fukudome
3B Ramirez
C Soto
SS Cedeno/Theriot
CF Pie

If Felix Pie can live up to his end of the bargain and the shortstop (whoever it may be) can play competently, that is one scary lineup.

Cubs interested in Roberts, Nathan: The Chicago Cubs have shown interest in Orioles' second baseman Brian Roberts as well as Twins' closer Joe Nathan. While the latter might cost a little too much, considering the fact that we have three capable closing options, I would certainly welcome Brian Roberts to the team with open arms, Mitchell Report or not.

Without speculating too much about what it may cost us to bring the switch hitting second baseman to our club, let's try to speculate how that will change things in the lineup. Brian Roberts most definitely would hit second and play second base, meaning Mark DeRosa would be completely replaced.

For the record, there are very few people that I would be willing to bench Mark DeRosa in favor of, but Roberts would be one of them. What does that mean for DeRosa? He might end up having to sit on the bench and play the role that he played for the Braves or his versatility might give him the ability to log some at-bats at short or center field. Someone even suggested that DeRosa would be able to start five game a week by playing a different position each time.

Let's not worry about DeRosa too hard though. As of now, Roberts is still an Oriole and DeRosa is still our starting second baseman.

Cubs deal Jones for Infante

2007-11-12T13:08:00.000-06:00

This is a surprising one.

I left the 2007 season counting on Jones to be one of the starting three outfielders for the 2008 season. I don't know, maybe it's because I'm not ready to hand Felix Pie 150 starts yet, but I thought we were outfielder short before shipping Jacque Jones to Detroit.

The arrival of Omar Infante is also confusing. I thought we learned our lesson years ago: there is such a thing as too many second basemen. Nonetheless, Infante will almost certainly enter the mix with DeRosa, Theriot, and Fontenot for a good chunk of playing time. There are reports that the club wants to turn Theriot back into the role player that he is. I don't have a problem with that, as long as we have a more capable option at short; Infante is not. There's also talk about taking the second baseman's job away from Mark DeRosa. That would be a mistake, unless we give him a starting role in the outfield (remember, he's an outfielder by trade). Right now, DeRosa's the closest thing to a #5 hitter we've got.

The Cubs seemed to have relied a large part on the Japanese market of players this year. By moving Dempster into the rotation, the Cubs intensified their efforts to land Hideki Iwase, the top closer in Japan. Those efforts failed as Iwase as announced he will return in Japan. Now, we've practically backed ourselves into corner with the trade of Jones. I almost feel like "trading" Jones for Fukudome would be a lateral move; even though Fukudome has more patience and is a consistent doubles hitter, Jones excels defensively and has the capability of clubbing 25 homers. But, now we need to struggle with five other Major League teams and a handful of Japanese teams to earn the services of Fukudome and thereby break even. The good news is that we don't need Fukudome specifically; there are other outfielders like Cameron and Rowand (I don't want Jones or Hunter) available on the market, but I would've liked to have seen us add an outfielder while hanging onto Jones. Before, it would've been nice to get one of them; now, we need another outfielder.

In 2007, the club seemed to benefit from the trades of Michael Barrett and Cesar Izturis. I wondered if the trade of Barrett was addition by subtraction, while the Izturis trade definitely was. Some may think that Jones is a similar case but I really disagree. He showed me a lot in the second half and actually managed to finish the year at a .285 clip! My confidence in him was very similar to what I thought about him at this point last year: maybe not one of the best outfielders, but he brings enough to put up with the occasional mistake.

Also, many believed that our interest in free-agent infielder Kazuo Matsui was an effort to try to lure the Japanese players to our team. Now, it turns out that we were legitimately searching for another middle infielder. Well, Infante's that guy; the one good thing that might come from adding Infante is that we won't mess around with Matsui anymore.

Lee wins Glove: Ignorant Cubs fans now have another piece of "evidence" to support the so-called superstar first baseman. Despite committing seven errors, Derrek Lee inexplicably won the Gold Glove over Albert Pujols, Todd Helton, and 13 others. Helton committed only 2 errors and ended up with a .999 fielding percentage while the Fielding Bible ranked Pujols miles ahead of everyone else defensively.

Nonetheless, I digress. Derrek Lee is a Cub and I'm happy for him, I guess.

Dempster rounds off rotation: I wanted a competent fifth starter heading into Spring Training, so that we wouldn't have to count on Marshall, Gallagher, or Hart to step up as the fifth starter and if Dempster can pitch to what the Cubs' front office hopes he is capable of, then he's the guy. This creates all sorts of problems though: not only do I believe that Dempster will not be the starter than everyone hopes he'll become, but we lost a great closer. Dempster had the second base save percentage in the league, blowing just three saves all year while converting 28. You'd be hard-pressed to find that kind of efficiency elsewhere.

Red Sox sweep to World title

2007-10-28T21:48:00.000-05:00

Now the Colorado Rockies know exactly how it feels.

In case there was any doubt which league was the better league in baseball, the World Series cleared things up. Teams featured in the World Series were the Rox and Sox, but Boston was the only team doing the rocking and socking, by sweeping the Rockies to win their second championship in just four years.

The Rockies breezed through the NL playoffs, sweeping the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks (who swept the Cubs) with relative ease, but the Red Sox managed to sweep Colorado, and barely broke a sweat in the process. From the 13-1 laugher in game one at Fenway Park, there was very little question as to who the better team was. The only question was whether or not the Rockies had enough magic on their side, but just minutes after the clock struck midnight in Boston, it struck midnight at Coors Field.

The Rockies did have one golden opportunity to shift momentum in their favor. Despite a horrible loss in the first game of the series, if Colorado would've taken game two, they would've escaped Fenway with a split and taken home-field advantage and momentum along with them. Game two started the right way, too, but the Schilling, Okajima, and Papelbon shut down the Rockies, giving their offense a chance to battle back.

Sure, Colorado had their chances in games three and four as well, but Boston controlled the entire series for the most part, outscoring the Rockies by nineteen runs in the four games. Boston jumped on the board quickly in each of the other three games, scoring a combined eleven times in the first three innings, which really put the pressure on a younger, lesser Rockies team.

Remember, the Rockies shouldn't have even been here; even despite winning 14 of their last 15 regular season games, it took two blown saves from baseball's all-time saves leader, Trevor Hoffman, for the Rockies to win the Wild Card. Then, they rode their hot-streak to a National League pennant, but as expected, the long layoff between the NLCS and World Series cooled down the champions of the Senior Circuit.

For Cubs fans, especially those that believe in the supernatural controlling the outcome of baseball games, the result of this Series should come as a sigh of relief. Hell froze over when the Sox won in 2004 and again when the White Sox won in 2005. If the Rockies were to win in 2007, that would make the third time; surely, hell wouldn't freeze over for a fourth time.

Rodriguez tests waters: Meanwhile, the other 28 teams around baseball are focused on the next biggest news. Third baseman Alex Rodriguez has opted out of his contract and will test the market as a free agent.

Alex Rodriguez, who could've been owed as much as $33 million per year by 2010, obviously thinks that he could get something larger or comparable with a different team. That limits the number of teams that are in the running for the superstar, and when you consider the Yankees' reaction to Rodriguez's decision, the choices are further limited.

"It's clear he didn't want to be a Yankee," said Yankees' Senior VP Hank Steinbrenner. "He doesn't understand the privilege of being a Yankee on a team where the owners are willing to pay $200 million to put a winning product on the field. I don't want anybody on my team that doesn't want to be a Yankee. We're not backing down. It's goodbye."

Imagine what a Cubs lineup with Alex Rodriguez for the 2008 season would look like:

1. Alfonso Soriano, LF
2. Mark DeRosa, 2B
3. Derrek Lee, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, SS
5. Aramis Ramirez, 3B
6. Geovany Soto, C
7. Jacque Jones, CF
8. Matt Murton, RF

Yikes!

As impressive as that lineup would be, I can't help but think that we don't have an extra $30 million per year to bring Rodriguez into town and that if we did, if there isn't a better way to spend it. Outfielders like Mike Cameron, Andruw Jones, and Aaron Rowand are available as are closers like Mariano Rivera, Eric Gagne, and Francisco Cordero. Wouldn't an everyday outfielder, a closer, and a fifth starter be so much better?

I understand that there are plenty of options the fifth spot in the rotation already within the organization: Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, Kevin Hart, etc, but I would much rather prefer we head into Spring Training with a solid option there. If one of the young pitchers step up and win the job in March, fine, but the package of Rivera ($12M/year), Rowand ($10M/year), and Russ Ortiz ($8/year) looks a lot more inviting than a single player.

Fall classic to feature Rox, Sox

2007-10-23T02:37:00.000-05:00

It's a feeling Cubs fans know all too well.

Up 3-1 in the league championship series, the Indians thought they were sitting pretty. When Beckeet beat Cleveland in game five, that still didn't worry too many Indians fans, much like our game five loss to the same Josh Beckett didn't phase us. Okay, so the Tribe didn't have Prior and Wood to pitch in games six and seven (they did have Carmona and Westbrook) and the series wasn't heading back to their home ballpark, but nonetheless, the defeat in game five wasn't seen as a step towards elimination, but rather a day delaying the inevitable.

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Josh Beckett - Pitcher

2003 Game 5 of NLCS vs. Cubs:
CG, 2 H, 0 ER, BB, 11 K

2007 Game 5 of ALCS vs. Indians:
8 IP, 5 H, ER, BB, 11 K

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But eliminated are the Indians and Kenny Lofton is again forced to watch another World Series despite having been up 3-1 in the LCS.

So who are the favorites in the 104th Fall Classic?

Well, for every bit that the Rockies were sizzling,t eh Red Sox seem to be just as hot now, especially with the long lay-off for Colorado. Call it extra rest if you want, but Boston is still getting two days off -- plenty of time to reset the rotation and ice down some nagging injuries, but not enough time to lose momentum.

The Red Sox are no doubt the better team on paper, and while I said earlier that that didn't matter to the Rockies, Boston now has just as much magic on their side, having snatched the American League pennant from the jaws of defeat. And even though the Rockies have the Coors Field wild card, Boston has been equally tough at their home, if not tougher, having won nine of their last eleven postseason games at Fenway.

If Colorado had home-field advantage, it would be a different story, and for that reason, if the first two games at Fenway are split, the Rockies have a fighting chance. But many of the young Rockies have not felt the pressure of being in a big postseason series in a big baseball city yet,; the road to the Series for them went through Philadelphia and Phoenix, not Chicago or New York, or Boston. If the first two games go Boston's way, the younger more inexperienced team may shut down; besides it would mean that they feel overmatched and would have to win all three games at Coors and another at Fenway.

Plus, the Rockies haven't stared down the barrel of three aces yet. Sure, they ran into the Cole Hamels and the Brandon Webbs, but Beckett, Schilling, and Matsuzaka in back-to-back-to-back games? And as if that weren't enough, the bullpen features Okajima, Gagne, and Papelbon, a back three that would make even Arizona feel jealous.

At least the Diamondbacks couldn't hit.

Rox roll to first flag

2007-10-16T13:11:00.000-05:00

All four teams in the National League had a storybook entry into the playoffs this season. Take the Chicago Cubs, for example, who were 8 1/2 games out of first place after June 23. The Brewers' mid-season collapse, however, helped the Cubs pick up 6 1/2 games in the standings over 26 games in June and July and get to level ground with Milwaukee by August 1.

The Philadelphia Phillies had an even harder route to their division crown. With just 17 games to go, the Mets had a 7 game lead in the division and were already printing the playoff tickets. Winning 13 of the final 17, however, gave the Phillies a chance to win the division and the Mets struggled in the final two weeks of the season and the Mets were out.

How about the Diamondbacks? A team filled with rookies, a team with Eric Brynes as the third hitter and Doug Davis as the second starter won 90 games despite being outscored by 20 runs throughout the course of the season. The Diamondbacks took the division lead on July 28 and kept that division lead for every day except one after that, en route to a surprising playoff berth.

No playoff berth, however, was more surprising than the path that the Rockies took. After losing to Logan Kensing on September 15, the Rockies caught fire. Once again, proving the point that it doesn't matter who the best team in the playoffs is, just who the hottest team is, the Rockies rattled off 14 wins in the season's final 15 games before winning their first seven postseason matchups.

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N. L. Wild Card Standings on September 15

1. San Diego Padres (80-67)
T2. Los Angeles Dodgers (79-69)
T2. Philadelphia Phillies (79-69)
4. Colorado Rockies (76-72)
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Everyone had counted out the Rockies, even after they won their 11th straight game. Besides, they were still down by 2 games to San Diego with 3 left. But, the Diamondbacks rolled over after taking the first game of the season finale and the Padres lost the final two games of the season, thanks to Hoffman's struggles and the Rockies were able to force a one-game playoff.

Trevor Hoffman had a chance to nail down the final playoff spot in game 161. However, with two outs in the ninth inning, Tony Gwynn delivered the game-tying RBI triple to extend the game, which eventually ended with the Brewers winning. Then, in the tiebreaker, the Padres appeared to have the advantage. Even though the game was at Coors Field, the pitching matchup was laughably in San Diego's favor; 19-6 Jake Peavy vs. 10-9 Josh Fogg.

That didn't matter to the Rockies, just like it didn't matter that they were overmatched on paper against the Phillies and Diamondbacks. It also didn't matter that the Rockies were down by two runs in the 13th against Trevor Hoffman. This was their year and no one's was going to get in their way.

It seems like Hoffman pitched everyone into the playoffs except his own team. His save against the Brewers on September 28 sealed the deal for the Cubs and his blown save on September 29 put the Diamondbacks in while keeping the Rockies alive. On October 1, his blown save ended the Padres' season and let the Rockies continue on their glorious run.

The Rockies dominated the post-season, just breezing through NL's so-called best. Against the Phillies, the Rockies blew out Philadelphia in Game 2, while showing they can win the close ones in games 1 & 3. Against Arizona, pitching dominated for the Rockies, despite the fact that all of the games were either in Phoenix or Denver, as the West champions only scored 5 times in the first 36 innings of the game (even we scored 6 times against Arizona in 3 games).

The Rockies seem to be overmatched against both Boston and Cleveland, but don't tell them that. If the route that the Rockies took to win their first ever National League pennant isn't a sign that this was meant to be their year, I don't know what is.