Saturday, June 30, 2007

Don't look now, but the Cubs are rolling (part 2)

Regular readers of my blog may remember the post that I made on May 2. It had the same title as this one.

The Cubs were coming off of a double victory on that day and pulled within 2 games of the .500 mark. They also pulled within 5 1/2 games of the first-place Brewers. What we didn't know at that time was that nearly two months later, the Cubs would never get closer than 5 games.

After sweeping Washington and peeking their heads above .500 at 15-14, the Cubs dropped 17 of their next 24, including a season-low six game losing streak. Funny thing is that we only lost two games in the standings, and stood 7 1/2 games back at that point.

Since snapping that streak, however, the Cubs won 17 of the next 25, including the current seven-game streak to get back to the .500 mark. During that time, we only picked up one game, managing to remain 6 1/2 off the pace. It seems like we've been winning when Milwaukee has been winning and we've been losing when they've been losing.

It's interesting to look at some of the things that were on the May 2 post and see how what I thought about the Cubs stacks up 52 games later:

"Derrek Lee is 19 for his last 32 in the past eight games and has doubled at least once in each one of those games, raising his season average to .415 and his OPS to a staggering 1.092. That number is especially outstanding when you consider the fact that Lee has homered only once so far. He's doubled 17 times though."

The season average and OPS were going to drop. But Lee's managed to keep them at a level that is still outstanding. His .346 average is second-best in the league and his .932 OPS is impressive, because he's hit just 6 homers all year. Lee's kept his doubles pace up -- he now has 26.

"Alfonso Soriano, despite missing over a week due to the hamstring injury has still recorded 84 official times at-bat and collected 26 hits (.310 average) and 11 doubles (.512 slugging)."

His on-base percentage at the time was .341. It's gone up to .353 now. The average has risen to .321 and the slugging to .552 as he now has 42 extra-base hits, including 15 homers.

"You can't help but thinking how good this team will be once Zambrano, Howry, and Eyre start pitching well and when Soriano and Lee start hitting homeruns consistently. Knowing the Cubs luck though, Marquis, Hill, and Lilly will forget how to grip a baseball at that point."

Let's do a before-and-after comparison, shall we?

Carlos Zambrano:
Up to May 2: 2-2, 5.77 ERA
Since May 2: 7-4, 3.51 ERA
Note: Since June 2: 4-1, 1.43 ERA

Bob Howry:
Up to May 2: 0-2, 3.29 ERA; 4 holds, 0/1 saves
Since May 2: 5-2, 4.68 ERA; 5 holds, 2/5 saves
Note: 4 earned runs allowed in last 16 innings (2.25 ERA).

Scott Eyre:
Up to May 2: 0-1, 12.27 ERA
Since May 2: 0-0, 4.82 ERA
Note: 2 holds since May 2, none before.

Alfonso Soriano:
Up to May 2: 2 HR in 84 AB
Since May 2: 13 HR in 226 AB
Note: 14 of 15 HR's this year with bases empty.

Derrek Lee:
Up to May 2: 1 HR in 106 AB
Since May 2: 5 HR in 177 AB
Note: Pro-rating his "since May 2" numbers over 630 AB produces only 18 HR.

Jason Marquis:
Up to May 2: 4-1, 2.10 ERA
Since May 2: 1-3, 4.42 ERA
Note: All quality starts before May 2; only two QS since.

Rich Hill:
Up to May 2: 3-1, 1.77 ERA
Since May 2: 2-4, 3.94 ERA
Note: Allowed four or more earned runs 1 before May 2, 4 times since.

Ted Lilly:
Up to May 2: 2-2, 2.82 ERA
Since May 2: 4-2, 4.80 ERA
Note: Lilly supported with four runs or more (in entire game) 7 times since May 2.

Chicago Cubs:
Up to May 2: 12-14, 5 1/2 games behind
Since May 2: 27-25, lost 1 game in NL central

It's pretty interesting to see how things turned out the way they did. I mean, all of the players had track records and we all knew that they would turn around (good or bad), eventually but it's interesting to look at the numbers side-by-side.

"As long as we keep pace with the Cards and Astros, we're good, because Milwaukee can't run away with the division, right? Or can they? We've been trained to think that the Brewers are not a good ball club for so long that it's stuck, but it's time we start jumping on a horse to catch those pesky Brewers."

We're 3 games in front of St. Louis and 6 games in front of Houston. Still trailing the Brewers though, who stand at 46-33...

Thursday, June 28, 2007

The most important pitcher's stat

Not really something that applies to current events in baseball right now, but I've been asked so many times about this recently, I've decided to create a single post to address the issue.

No statistic is perfect. Especially for pitchers. But, I feel as though the most effective way to measure a pitcher's ability is the record for starting pitchers and holds and saves for relievers. I understand what the majority opinion on this is, but the ERA and WHIP can be just as unreliable for measuring pitchers.

The objective of the game is to win. Teams make the playoffs based on wins, not based on earned runs allowed or baserunners allowed. There's no question that the WHIP statistic is not the best way to measure success; a good pitcher is able to pitch effectively with runners on base. Good pitchers don't give up hits in bunches, they scatter them. So, measuring the timing of hits would be a better indicator, not the number of hits.

Arguing against the earned run average is a little harder. It seems logical that a pitcher should not be held accountable for runs that wouldn't have scored but for a defensive error. It also seems logical to not reward pitchers based on the amount of run support that they recieve. But the ERA is not without its flaws either, and there are equally compelling arguments for wins and losses.

Any runs that score after the inning would've ended are considered unearned. A pitcher should still somehow be held accountable if he implodes on himself and is unable to "stop the bleeding" after an error. Similarly, the timing of when he allows runs should also be considered.

The pitcher's main responsbility is to keep his team in the ballgame. If the pitcher consistantly leaves the game always trailing, even if it's only by a run or two, it says more about his ability to pitch in tight ballgames, whether the score is 10-9 or 2-1.

A pitcher that goes four games with the following numbers would have a respectable 4.15 ERA.
8 IP, ER
5 IP, 5 ER
6 IP, 4 ER
7 IP, 2 ER

But his pitching was severely inconsistent and really only gave his team a chance to win two of the ballgames. A pitcher that consistently goes 7 innings and allows 3 runs however has a 3.86 ERA but has pitched considerably better. Over 200 innings, a short good stretch is enough to really alter the ERA.

Imagine a pitcher that has allowed 90 earned runs in 190 innings. He would have a 4.74 ERA. Say he has one good start and pitches a complete game shutout, adding 9 more innings to his tab. The ERA jumps down to 4.52. Has he really improved his entire season performance that much? He's really only helped his team by one potential game out of 162. (I say potential, as there's no way to really tell if his team would've won had he allowed 5 runs.)

There are two reasons why the W-L record is so essential.

A good pitcher alters his style of pitching, based on situation. Do not punish the pitcher that throws strikes with a 7-run lead and gives up a solo homer here and there; that's what he's supposed to do. Instead, punish the pitcher who risks flooding the bases with runners by nibbling on the corners. (But only if he blows the lead.) For the same reason, relievers and closers should be measured similarly for their ability to hold a lead, not the number of earned runs they allow. A closer with a three-run lead is expected to come out firing strikes. Everyone knows that, yet it's still the right thing to do.

All pitchers pitch in different conditions. On a given day, there are so many variables that have an impact on the game being played on the field. The most obvious choices include the ballpark dimensions, the wind, and the umpires, but other things such as the mood and pace of the game also need to be considered. Don't compare a pitcher pitching in Coors Field with the wind blowing out with a pitcher who's pitching in Atlanta. Instead, compare him with a pitcher that is pitching in similar conditions -- the other pitcher in the game.

W-L is resistant to outliers. A few bad starts here and there can really hurt a pitcher's ERA. If you're down by six runs, does giving up another three-run homer really hurt your team? How about giving up single runs in three different tie games? Both effect the ERA in the same manner, but one hurts the team a lot more than the other. No matter how poorly or how well a pitcher pitches, it only (directly) effects the outcome of one game. So let's consider a statistic that measures a pitcher's ability to pitch well in more games, not a statistic that measures a pitcher's ability to dominate in fewer games.

There are flaws with the W-L record as well. The main is that people will still claim that those pitching for teams with a good offense will have more favorable numbers. While that's true, shouldn't a pitcher pitching for a team that can hit be more aggressive within the strike zone? Isn't that smart pitching?

Another argument I've heard is the bullpen. Why penalize the pitcher with a no decision when his bullpen fails to hold a lead that he worked so hard to create? Well, perhaps that is a flaw that could be corrected; maybe there should be a stat like "number of games left with lead".

But since all pitching stats are flawed in one form or another, why not put more emphasis on the one stat that matters at the end of the day? Winning ballgames...

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Jones remains with Cubs -- for now

The Cubs and Marlins had agreed on a deal that would've sent outfielder Jacque Jones to Florida for a low-level minor leaguer.

The Cubs tried to get the deal done before Tuesday's game so that a roster spot could open up for right hander Billy Petrick. Instead, the team had to send Ryan Dempster to the disabled list, a move that put the Cubs' closer out for the rest of the first half. To make room for Petrick on the 40-man roster, Wade Miller was transferred to the 60-day disabled list, despite the fact that Miller had started 2 games with Iowa (AAA).

So why did the deal fall apart? According to the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Sam Zell, who had agreed to purchase the Tribune Company, blocked the deal thirty minutes before Tuesday's game, because he disagreed with sending nearly $7 million to the Marlins to complete the deal. Cubs' GM Jim Hendry, however, denied those allegations.

"At the end of the day, I just wasn't going to be rushed into it and make a deal that I didn't think was good for us," he said. "We just couldn't kind of round it off and finish it."

Lou Piniella, when asked about the trade, even started talking about Jones' tenure with the Cubs in the past tense.

Jacque Jones was ready to leave, as reporters gathered around his locker less than 45 minutes before first pitch. But when Jones was approached by reporters after the game, the troubled outfielder insisted his main concern was the Cubs. "Unless you want to talk about the game, I got nothing I want to talk about," said Jones. "I'd like for this team to keep playing how they're playing, winning games."

One thing is for certain though, after the position that Jim Hendry put Jacque Jones in, it would be best to try to trade Jones immediately. This means that his value has dropped considerably on the market and getting Eric Gagne from Texas is now highly improbable, though the Rangers, along with the White Sox, are expected to be the teams most interested in Jones. Designating him for assignment might be best as this would open up his roster spot and give the club ten days to either trade him or expose him to the waiver wire.

Monday, June 25, 2007

Lashing out at Hawk Harrelson

I always knew what kind of demographic White Sox fans were. I always knew what kind of demographic that the team tried to cater to. After all, they were using terms such as "grill" and "pickle" to describe a person's face and a rundown situation. Terms that are used only by the uneducated, unsophisticated, and uncultured. But, after this weekend's happenings in the series against the Cubs, Hawk Harrelson made it clear. The White Sox organization needs to do something about the comments made on the air and address the issue. If not, it can only be assumed that the team does not have any problems with the commentary.

After the Cubs scored the go-ahead run in Saturday's ninth inning on a suicide squeeze, Harrelson's comments shocked me. The video of the play can be seen from the link posted below.

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/gameday_recap.jsp?ymd=20070623&content_id=2044644&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=chc

He actually advocated Bobby Jenks putting a fastball right into Ryan Theriot's head! What is the 10 year old watching the game supposed to think? It's okay to put an opposing hitter's career and life in jeopardy if it means you are trying to save a run.

Never mind the absurdity of his suggestion to drill Theriot in the head, the move doesn't even make sense from an in-game point of view! There are other ways to deal with the suicide squeeze. Ways that don't involve giving the batter first base. Ways that don't involve risking a wild pitch by throwing the ball more than five feet away from where your catcher was expecting the ball.

I was furious when I heard his comments initially, but I was willing to let it go without posting about it. His reaction (along with DJ's) in Sunday's eighth-inning debacle, however, forced my hand. The play and Guillen's ejection can be seen by following the link below.

http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/news/gameday_recap.jsp?ymd=20070624&content_id=2046523&vkey=recap&fext=.jsp&c_id=cws

Now, those of you that didn't see the play as reported by Len & Bob on WGN still may not know what happened, as Comcast Sports Net never showed the reason for the runners being put back as they were. As R1 (Pagan) was rounding second base, he was obstructed by F6 (Uribe), and thus the play should've been killed immediately after defense tried to put out R1.

Let me address a couple of issues about the play before moving on though:
* I'm sick of people saying that Uribe interfered with Pagan. He didn't. Uribe obstructed Pagan. The term "interference" only refers to a fielder illegally hindering a batter's ability to hit a pitched ball (i.e.: catcher's interference) or a runner illegally hindering a fielder's ability to field a batted ball. The term "obstruction" refers to a fielder illegally impeding the progress of a baserunner. The two terms are completely opposite of each other; the difference between the two is larger than the difference between a fair and foul ball.
* Joe West's crew handled the situation perfectly. The play ended up being the best case scenario for the White Sox. If anyone had an argument, it should've been Piniella. Under OBR Rule 7.06(a), Pie (R2) could've been awarded the plate and Pagan third.

Comcast Sports Net never showed the obstruction, probably because they weren't sure whether or not Hawk and DJ were smart enough to be able to react. Either that or because they were too irresponsible to show the fans the truth. (CSN has been a cancer to baseball, well all of sports, since it was created.) Meanwhile, Len & Bob pointed out the obstruction as it happened, alerting the fans immediately of what happened off-camera. Then, they showed numerous replays of the obstruction and the call made by both the second-base and third-base umpires.

Hawk and DJ assumed that they knew the rulebook better than 30-year veteran Joe West. Hawk and DJ assumed that a little rundown situation confused the umpires and they didn't know where to place the runners. Hawk and DJ kept repeating that the result of the play was simple, and didn't bother to think why the umpires had delayed the game for literally ten minutes trying to sort through what had happened.

Hawk and DJ yelled at Pagan to "run to any base, because he would be called safe anyway" when Pagan was caught in another run down later in the inning. They continued to complain into the next inning, when Len & Bob tried to inform their fans and obtained information from the one guy who knows more about baseball rules than everyone else at the ballpark combined, a guy who happened to be literally next door to the TV broadcasters (in the press box) -- decorated former big league umpire Rich Garcia.

It never occured to Hawk and DJ that perhaps they were wrong. It never occured to them to walk fifty feet between innings and ask Garcia what had happened. It never occured to them that perhaps the umpires knew what they were doing, and instead repeated over and over again that "the call was B.S." and the umpires "missed their responsibility."

The White Sox organization needs to save their reputation. The White Sox organization needs to address their TV crew and apologize to the fans for their behavior. The White Sox organization needs to force Hawk Harrelson to publicly apologize for saying he didn't understand why Bobby Jenks didn't bury a fastball into Ryan Theriot's head.

Sunday, June 24, 2007

Trying to make sense of the rundowns

Pie on second. Pagan on first. No outs.

DeRosa lines a pitch over Dye's head in right field. Pie holds up, as the ball might have been caught while Pagan rounds second and is obstructed by Uribe. DeRosa rounds first on his way to second. Felix Pie was held at third by third base coach Mike Quade, because of his late start.

As the throw returns to the infield, Pie is standing on third with Pagan halfway between second and third and DeRosa standing on second. The defense goes after the runner caught in between the bases. Pagan retreats to second base and DeRosa heads back to first base to give the base back to Pagan.

Pagan is out at second and now DeRosa is caught is caught in a rundown between first and second base. Pie sees this and attempts to score, but the infielders see this and catch Pie in between third and home. Pie is eventually tagged out as DeRosa coasts into second base safely.

So the White Sox 9-3-6-3-2-5 double play. Or did they?

So what the hell happened here. To be honest, I would've mis-applied the rule. I would've still had an out, as Pagan would've been in no man's land had he not been obstructed with. The umpires in the game handeled the situation poorly, but got the final call right, by loading the bases and erasing all of the outs.

A play was made on the obstructed runner. That's type "A" obstruction, persuant to Rule 7.06(a). The ball should have been killed immediately. The umpires made it confusing by allowing the play to continue.

I found Ozzie Guillen's reaction interesting. His first words to crew chief Joe West were "I'm not here to argue," but his actions were definitely different from his words. Guillen went out there to get himself ejected. How do I know? After leaving the dugout and halfway to the umpires, he stopped, took a couple of steps back towards his own dugout, pulled out his lineup card and threw it to his assistant. Then, he continued out on the field and proceeded to tell West that he wasn't looking for an argument.

OBR, Rule 7.06(a):
"When obstruction occurs, the umpire shall call or signal
"Obstruction." If a play is being made on the obstructed runner ... the ball is dead and all runners shall advance, without liability to be put out, to the bases they would have reached, in the umpire’s judgment, if there had been no obstruction. The obstructed runner shall be awarded at least one base beyond the base he had last legally touched before the obstruction. Any preceding runners, forced to advance by the award of bases as the penalty for obstruction, shall advance without liability to be put out."

Friday, June 22, 2007

Molina was Cubs' primary target

Those of you expecting another move by Jim Hendry: stop.

Many speculated that Hendry wasn't done after shipping Michael Barrett away to the San Diego Padres. "What? Rob Bowen and Koyie Hill can't be our catchers?!?" they shouted, but it looks like Bowen and Hill are the options behind the plate for the year. That is, unless the team decides to promote Soto or Fox.

Why is this the case? Because the Cubs' main target was not Rob Bowen. It was Yadier Molina.

Before his last start against the Padres, Carlos Zambrano made some cryptic comments that scared some Cubs fans. Many tried to dismiss the comments as Carlos just being Carlos. It was easy to forget about it, but there was no real explanation as to why Zambrano said what he said. No real explanation until now.

When a reporter saw a pair of red catcher's shin guards in Zambrano's locker, the Cubs' ace responded by saying, "It's a gift from my new catcher, Yadier." He did not mention however whether it was he that was going to the Cardinals or Molina coming to the Cubs. Now, we know the answer.

This revelation also makes another thing crystal clear.

We all knew that a large part of the Barrett trade was because of the dugout incident on June 1 with Carlos Zambrano. We all knew that, even though Cubs' officials said it had nothing to do with the fight. Those of you that doubted it, there's proof. The Cubs went so far as to get Zambrano's opinion on shipping Barrett and probably told him that the main target in the deal was Yadier Molina.

It's not to say that Hendry won't make another deal now. But, the initial plan in motion was not one that involved Rob Bowen.

Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Sosa homers as Cubs give game to Texas

For those of you think that the Cubs are actually trying, all you have to do is analyze Wednesday's loss against the Rangers. Those of you that claim to think that the Cubs are trying, I understand why you have to say that -- you have to justify why you continue to watch the team. But, you and I both know in our hearts that Lou's boys don't care. And if you honestly believe that the Cubs are trying, you know nothing about the game.

The Rangers did everything they possibly could to hand the Cubs the second game of the series. Not only did they go 2-for-15 with runners in scoring position but they committed a clutch error and Gerald Laird showed an effort in baserunning that was the worst that I had ever seen. And that's saying a lot.

The Cubs lost because they went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position and comitted three errors. That's not a lack of effort, but a lack of talent, you might say...

How about Jason Marquis who keeps pawing at the dirt after walking batters? How does that help? (You wonder why the defense was struggling.) If the mound is bothering you, get it fixed! If the mound is going to bother you every time the opposing pitcher is five inches taller than you, you're not a Major League pitcher.

Need even more proof? In the 3rd inning, Mike Fontenot long hops Derrek Lee while attempting to turn a double play on Sosa. Fontenot didn't have to rush the throw; Michael Young peeled off after he was retired at second base and Sosa was still several paces away from first base.

What else? Not a single argument from the Cubs after Michael Young reached on an infield hit in the third inning. That play wasn't even close and James Hoye blew the call...yet no one bothered to plead their case. Fine, Lee has an appeal pending, but that doesn't mean that he should roll over when the umpires blow a call as clearly as Hoye did.

Need even more? Pagan is smiling after striking out for the second out in the ninth inning and Ryan Theriot doesn't so much as flinch when he is called out on a check swing appeal to end the game.

Addition by subtraction?

The Chicago Cubs traded catcher Michael Barrett to the Padres this morning for backup catcher Rob Bowen and 19-year-old Kyler Burke.

A couple of things that a lot of you immediately considered when you saw this deal:
* What can Rob Bowen bring to our team?
* Why did we give away Michael Barrett's bat?

I think it's important to think about where the rest of Michael Barrett's season was headed. In the last three years, his on-base average was rising and his AB/HR ratio was getting better progressively, until he finally finished last year with a .307 average, .368 on base percentage, and 16 homeruns in just 375 at-bats.

It, however, looks like that Barrett was not on that same path this year. He's got 9 homeruns, so he's on pace to match that total, but he's got only 18 extra base hits, which means he will fall well short of the 50 extra-base hit per year average. His on-base percentage thus far has been a miserable .307 and his OPS fell from an impressive .885 last year to .734.

As far as Rob Bowen is concerned, his bat isn't anything too special. He's got a respectable .268 batting average and an outstanding .371 on-base percentage, but that's over 82 times at-bat. Bowen was the backup in San Diego and he probably won't be the regular catcher with the Cubs. So, Bowen's the defensive catcher, right? Wrong.

In just 515 innings behind the plate in his career, Bowen has comitted 6 passed balls and 6 errors. He's also managed to throw out just 10% of baserunners that have tried to run against him. Exactly how bad is that, you ask? In 475 innings this year for Michael Barrett, he's allowed 8 passed balls and committed 5 errors. Barrett has thrown out 18% of base stealers so far in 2007, which looks good when placed next to Bowen's numbers.

How is this addition by subtraction then? That's because Bowen will not play as much as Barrett. Hill is not as much of a defensive liability.

(So, Koyie Hill is our starting catcher?!?)

I don't know. But the extended injury to Blanco and now the trade of Barrett makes things a lot more interesting for the catchers in the farm system and there are a lot of good ones. Geovany Soto, Koyie Hill, and Jake Fox were all catchers within the orgnization that had their future blocked by the Barrett/Blanco tandum. Now, they're going to get their chances.

I'm still not sure whether or not this was a good move. It may take me a couple of more months (or years, if Burke turns out to be anything) for me to figure that out. But, the team was playing .464 ball, and that was unacceptable. If this move hurts the team, it certainly couldn't have decreased this team's chances at winning the division.

Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Marshall yanked after 4+

Recently, I seemed to have lost sight as to the reason why I created this blog. It wasn't so that I could report on Cubs' news. If you want Cubs' news, go to cubs.com. It was for me to weigh in on the Cubs games and give my opinions about the Chicago Cubs, mainly Lou Piniella. I was so sick of ranting to everyone about Dusty Baker every time he made a dumb move that I decided to create a single blog that everyone can look at to get my opinions.

As most of you should know, a win doesn't mean that the manager did everything right. A loss doesn't mean that the manager did everything wrong. The wrong guys could step up and cover up a mistake and make the manager look like a genius. What am I talking about? How about Izturis' game winning bloop double about a week ago? I was screaming at my TV to use Ryan Theriot in that situation, but Lou let Izzy hit for himself anyway...

Now, coming off of a game in which the Chicago bullpen retired all fifteen batters that it faced (including nine strikeouts), it's time to again second-guess the Cubs' manager on a win. After 76 pitches and 4 runs, Marshall was pulled before he could record an out in the fifth inning. Sure, Marshall had given up three homeruns, but he had only allowed five hits -- just three in the first four innings.

If Marshall is gonna get pulled after his fourth run on every outing, the bullpen is going to be real busy. Let's not kid ourselves, Marshall isn't going run quality start after quality start out there every time, so why not let him pitch through some adversity? What better time to do it then when you're in a bandbox like Arlington? What better time to do it then when you're playing by AL rules?

Yes, only one run was scored by the two teams combined in the final four innings of the game, but did you really expect that? If you knew that was coming, then you're a genius and pulling Marshall would've been the right move. But, I certainly didn't know that was coming and neither did Lou!

Piniella brought Marmol into the game too early, but Marmol covered for his manager's error by throwing three dominating innings.

Monday, June 18, 2007

Lee suspended for five games

Chicago Cubs' first baseman Derrek Lee was suspended for five games following his participation in Saturday's fourth inning incident in a game against the Padres.

After Chris Young hit Lee with a pitch, the slugging first baseman took a couple of swings at the pitcher, causing both benches and dugouts to empty out onto the field. Chris Young also got a five-game suspension, while Cubs' hitting coach Gerald Perry is suspended for three games.

Though sources initially indicated that the suspension to Lee and Young were six games, more credible sources have reported that the suspension was indeed five.

Meanwhile, the Cubs have optioned down left-handed reliever Clay Rapada to Iowa (AAA) to make room for Daryle Ward. Ward will likely serve as the team's first baseman during the suspension, though DeRosa will become a candidate when Ramirez returns on Friday.

I'm still sure why the Chicago Cubs are handling their pitchers the way that they are handling them. First of all, Pignatiello should've gotten the call ahead of Gallagher and it should've been Gallagher that got sent down, not Rapada. Rapada spent just four days on the big league roster and faced one batter before being sent down to Iowa. Besides, Gallagher is a starter.

Thursday, June 14, 2007

Cubs sweep Padres?

The Chicago Cubs will sweep the San Diego Padres this weekend. The series with the Padres has not even started, yet, I know. Hell, the series with Seattle isn't even over yet, but I know! How do I know?

It has nothing to do with the pitching matchups. It has nothing to do with the Padres ballclub. In fact, it hardly has anything to do with Cubs baseball at all.

My flight into Raleigh on Friday is during the series opener against the Padres. My flight back to Chicago on Sunday is during the series finale. What about Saturday's game? Yup, you guessed it. Right in the middle of my umpiring clinic. That means I will not be able to watch or follow any of the games in any capacity. So what does this have to do with the Cubs?

Well, the Cubs seem like a totally different ballclub when I don't watch. It's actually kind of eerie, but the Cubs are better than .800 in games that I don't watch. Yes, .800.

Eight hundred.

Simple probability tells that there is a better than 50% chance that the Cubs will sweep and almost a 90% chance that the Cubs will win the series. Of course, if the Cubs do end up sweeping the Padres, it means that I will have some serious consideration to do. But, I'll gladly take the sweep and worry about the future later. Eamus Catuli!

Wednesday, June 13, 2007

Numbers Game

Oh, the things you can come up with when you're bored.

Sean Marshall has been the most consistent starter for the Cubs in the last three weeks. Most of you know that each of his starts have been quality starts. But, exactly how consistent has he been? Well, this is freaky.

home: 1-1, 2.08 ERA
road: 1-1, 2.08 ERA

vs. lefties: .208 average allowed (5-24)
vs. righties: .208 average allowed (15-72)

Not only are his lefty/righty splits equal, but they match home/road ERA!

Here are a few more comparisons that aren't identical, but still pretty close.

after first pitch strike: .182 average allowed (8-44)
after first pitch ball: .196 average allowed (9-46)

1st game: loss; 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, HR, 2 BB, 8 K
2nd game: loss; 6.1 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, HR, 2 BB, 6 K

3rd game: win; 6.2 IP, 6 H, ER, 0 HR
4th game: win; 6 IP, 4 H, ER, 0 HR

In both of his losses, Marshall walked two batters. Marshall has gone 6 innings, 6 1/3 innings, 6 2/3 innings, and 7 innings in his starts so far and has given up exactly 1 or 2 earned runs on 4 or 6 hits. (Note the pattern: 2-2-1-1 and 4-6-6-4.) He's allowed a homer in each of his losses and not in each of his wins.

Also interesting to note is the fact that both of Marshall's wins came against Lance Cormier and the Braves. The first win was a 10-1 final and the second was a 9-1 final. In both wins, the Cubs have scored first. So I guess the moral is to score early and often. Where have I heard that before?

Along the same lines: in the two losses, Soriano went 1-for-4 and 0-for-5, respectively. In the wins, Soriano went 3-for-5 and then 4-for-5. Soriano has also homered in each of Marshall's wins and not in his losses.

What? You want even more? Well, how about Marshall's numbers in Triple-A?

with AAA: 2-0 in 4 starts; 24.2 IP, 17 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 8 BB; 1.01 WHIP
with ML: 2-2 in 4 starts; 26.0 IP, 20 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 7 BB; 1.04 WHIP

Tuesday, June 12, 2007

So we Cubbed up another game...

The online dictionary defines a catcher as "a person that catches". Obviously, Michael Barrett hasn't read that definition of a catcher.

In the 13th inning of Tuesday's game Jose Vidro gave the Cubs every oppotunity to tag him out at the plate before scoring the go-ahead run. Despite hesitating around third base, Vidro tried to score and missed the plate on his first try. Michael Barrett couldn't handle Jones' four-hopper to the plate though.

The Cubs have now lost five extra inning home games this year, and their sixth extra inning loss overall, which leads all of baseball. Why we were in extra to begin with?

Well, take your pick:
* Rich Hill balks in the first Mariner run.
* Washburn, an American League pitcher, drives in a run.
* Cubs waste a bases loaded / 0 outs situation in the 8th...for the second time in four days.

I've got to imagine that Michael Wuertz was unavailable. It would explain why Ohman was left out there so long and why Gallagher replaced him. It would also explain why Eyre was warming up in the bottom of the 13th.

The most surprising thing after all of this. We're just 5 1/2 games out of first place. It's a sad National League central...

Saturday, June 9, 2007

Cubs notes: Vitters, Floyd

Looks like no one will be headed to the minors or the DL just yet. With the injury to third baseman Aramis Ramirez, the Cubs were left with just four infielders on the team: Lee at first, Theriot at second, DeRosa at third, and Izturis at short. If one of those infielders were to get injured, the Cubs would've had to rely on Matt Murton, Alfonso Soriano, or Koyie Hill to play one of the infield positions. Sure, the flexibility of all four starting infielders (yes, even Lee has played some third base before) makes it possible to place any of the emergency infielders in whatever position they prefered, but it was still a less than ideal situation.

The two main options for the Cubs were to either place Ramirez on the disabled list or send Angel Pagan to Iowa (AAA), so that Mike Fontenot, another infielder could be called up. Now, Fontenot will be called up without either of those happening, as Cliff Floyd was placed on the bereavement list after he flew back to Chicago to care for his sick father.

Floyd must stay on the bereavement list until at least after Sunday's game in Atlanta, but can remain on the bereavement list an additional four days if necessary. With Ward and Floyd now off of the team, the left-handed options off of the bench would be Pagan (switch), Hill (switch) and Jones, if Murton starts in right.

When Floyd does return, I don't aniticipate Mike Fontenot to be sent back down. That wouldn't solve the problem. Instead, Angel Pagan, who would be the club's sixth outfielder, should be moved to the minor leagues so he can see some more consistent playing time.

Bigger news surrounding the team, however, deals with the newest additions to the organization, 17-year-old Josh Vitters and forty-nine other players drafted in this year's amateur draft. The rather surprising pick of Mike Moustakas by the Kansas City Royals left the door open for the Cubs to take virtually anyone in the draft, but the club was locked in on Vitters.

Vitters, a senior at Cypress HS in California, is a defensive liability at third base and would most likely be moved to a corner outfield position. While Vitters is believed to be able to contribute decent average and power numbers at some point, taking a guy that you HOPE turns into a .280 average, 20 homerun left fielder is not someone you should take third overall.

I know that Matt Wieters wanted a large bonus and the Cubs weren't necessarily in a position to need more pitching, but left handers Daniel Moskos and Ross Detwiler could've been left-handed pitchers that bring help to the major league club potentially as soon as late next year.

Taking a high school player with an above average ceiling doesn't appear like a good decision.

Wednesday, June 6, 2007

Gallagher up, Pignatiello ignored

I'm not quite sure why lefty Carmen Pignatiello is continuing to be ignored.

Pignatiello has thrown 6.2 scoreless innings in Tennessee (AA) early this year, before being promoted to Iowa (AAA), where he's thrown 19.2 innings and allowed just two runs on 14 hits. In his combined 26.1 innings in the minors, Pignatiello has a 0.68 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP.

Nonetheless, after reliever Angel Guzman was placed on the 15-day DL with right elbow strain, it wasn't the 24-year-old left hander that was called up to the big club. Instead, right hander Sean Gallagher got the nod.

Don't get me wrong, Gallagher has thrown the ball well in Tennessee (AA). In 11 starts, Gallagher has a 7-2 record and a 3.39 ERA. But he's a starter, Pignatiello is not.

Saturday, June 2, 2007

Piniella ejected in 8th

When will TV broadcasters learn? It doesn't matter whether Pagan actually beat the tag. The ball beat him, he's out. Why show the replays?

After Angel Pagan, representing the tying run, doubled to lead off the eighth inning, he was thrown out at third base attempting to advance on a potential wild pitch. Mike Quade and Pagan immediately starting arguing Mark Wegner's call, but Lou Piniella quickly stole the stage. With a slam of the cap, Piniella was immediately ejected and several minutes and several kicks of the cap later, Piniella left the field.

Len and Bob brought up the point that Wegner was wearing dark sunglasses so all Piniella could see was his own reflection. Hmmm, I should think about that...

Perhaps Piniella was upset for the bone head move he made in the last half inning. Ohman's splits are no secret and I've mentioned it time and time again on this blog, but Lou decided to stick with him against a string of three righties, despite the fact that he had Howry up in the bullpen.

Nonetheless, I like that Piniella tried to fire up the team. His players weren't producing and he's not allowed to play himself, so this was the next best thing. Dusty was either too scared to do that or too lazy to get off of his ass.

Too bad the team is still lazy.

Friday, June 1, 2007

Barrett, Zambrano fight in dugout

After Michael Barrett sought out Carlos Zambrano in the Cubs' clubhouse, both players were sent home.

Zambrano approached Barrett at the end of the fifth inning and the two exchanged punches in the dugout before Zambrano was sent to the showers. An inning later, Michael Barrett left the game and got into another altercation with the Cubs former ace, which resulted in the catcher recieving a bloody lip.

Pinella has promised disciplinary action for both players. Here's what I suggest.

With Henry Blanco placed on the 15-day DL, Koyie Hill was called up. Why not send Barrett down the minors and bring up Hill's teammate Geovany Soto? The fight is not the only reason why I'm calling for Barrett's head; it has more to do with his 7 passed balls, 22% caught stealing percentage, 5 errors, and a .290 onbase average.

Zambrano should miss a few starts so he can get himself focused. Who's going to take his spot? Well, that's easy. Sean Gallagher has a 6-2 record and a 3.67 ERA in Tennessee (AA).

Thursday, May 31, 2007

The winning formula

The guys that Lou keeps running out there aren't performing. Where are the changes that Lou promised? I've got the 25-man roster that Piniella should use, revolutionary changes and all...

THE STARTERS:

1. CF Felix Pie
44-111 (.396), 3 HR, 22 RBI, 28 runs scored with Iowa (AAA)
Pie has a .456 onbase percentage with Iowa. Even if his onbase percentage dropped by .100 in the major leagues, he'd have a higher onbase percentage than everyone on the team except Derrek Lee. Besides, he won't be afraid to steal a base.

2. SS Mike Fontenot
61-168 (.363), 6 HR, 31 RBI, 35 runs scored with Iowa (AAA)
Fontenot keeps tearing the cover off of the ball and leads Iowa with 100 total bases. His 13 walks puts his onbase percentage at .410, making him the perfect candidate for the second table setter.

3. 1B Derrek Lee
64-182 (.352), 4 HR, 30 RBI, 27 runs scored with Chicago
Even Derrek has been severely inconsistent this year, but you can't bench this guy. His onbase percentage has fallen to .419 and his slugging percentage has hoovered right about .500 all year, but Derrek should heat it up.

4. RF Matt Murton
29-105 (.276), 2 HR, 20 RBI, 15 runs scored with Chicago
Aramis can have the clean-up spot back when he starts to hustle. Murton may not be the prototypical clean up hitter, but since when have the Cubs had a prototypical anything? Murton is willing to take a few pitches and work himself into good counts (though even he's been doing less of that recently).

5. 3B Aramis Ramirez
55-190 (.289), 12 HR, 36 RBI, 26 runs scored with Chicago
Only 15 walks all season and so his onbase percentage is at a relatively low .340. Ramirez can supply the power that this team needs, but he could be easily replaced with Hoffpauir, who has 9 homers with Iowa.

6. LF Alfonso Soriano
55-190 (.289), 4 HR, 12 RBI, 29 runs scored with Chicago
Drop the stupid fuck tard to sixth; that should wake him up. Soriano has been swinging for power like a leadoff hitter and running the bases like a cleanup hitter. He also needs to stop jumping before catching every fly ball.

7. 2B Eric Patterson
55-172 (.320), 6 HR, 31 RBI, 37 runs scored with Iowa (AAA)
His numbers are very similar to that of Fontenot's. Perhaps, you could move Patterson into the two-slot to add more speed at the top and put Fontenot's massive production somewhere in an RBI slot.

8. C Geovany Soto
34-109 (.312), 4 HR, 25 RBI, 14 runs scored with Iowa (AAA)
His defense can't be worse than Michael Barrett's. Atleast you'll get some product this way. Koyie Hill is hitting the ball well in Iowa as well, so we should let him get every day time there. Let Michael Barrett work on his defense.

THE ROTATION:

1. RHP Carlos Zambrano
5-4, 5.24 ERA, 1.49 WHIP with Chicago
Yeah, he's been struggling, but he's also shown signs of coming out of his funk. Zambrano is still the ace of this staff and you can't justify not having him on the team.

2. LHP Ted Lilly
4-3, 3.52 ERA, 1.03 WHIP with Chicago
Many people thought that we overpayed for Lilly in the off-season. Sure, the contract is four years long, but so far, we've gotten everything that we could've asked for from Lilly.

3. RHP Jason Marquis
5-2, 2.93 ERA, 1.10 WHIP with Chicago
Marquis has been the most consistent pitcher of the staff so far this year (that's sad) and has kept us in every ballgame. Yeah, he's not as sharp since the complete game shutout, but he's still one of the better pitchers we've got.

4. LHP Rich Hill
4-4, 3.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP with Chicago
Looks like he found his groove in Los Angeles. The new stretch position should help him hold the runners on, so hopefully that won't bother him pitching too much.

5. LHP Sean Marshall
0-2, 2.70 ERA, 1.05 WHIP with Chicago
2-0, 1.82 ERA, 1.01 WHIP with Iowa (AAA)
Wait a sec. This starting rotation contains the five guys that are in the rotation right now. I guess starting pitching isn't the matter...

THE BULLPEN:

CL Ryan Dempster
3.80 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 11/12 saves with Chicago
The bullpen has been bad and so Ryan Dempster gets the brunt of the blame. It's not his fault though; Dempster's blown just one save and has been very serviceable as the closer. He should remain right where he is.

RHP Michael Wuertz
3.13 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 0 blown saves with Chicago
A bit of a stumble last time out, but Wuertz has still been the most consistent guy in the bullpen. Had we been without Howry and Eyre, Wuertz would've been the no-brainer option for the eighth inning. Howry and Eyre suck, so that's where Wuertz should pitch.

LHP Will Ohman
4.85 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 0 blown saves with Chicago
Ohman's lefty splits are incredible: 3-22 (.136), 0 HR, 1 RBI. Ohman should be used as a lefty specialist and a lefty specialist alone. He runs into trouble when he has to face right handers.

LHP Carmen Pignatiello
0.00 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 2/2 saves in 6.2 IP with Tennessee (AA)
1.06 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 1/1 saves in 17 IP with Iowa (AAA)
Looks like manager Buddy Bailey is trying to send a message to the big club. Pignatiello, for some reason, has been ignored over and over again, so Bailey used him to close last night's ballgame. Pignatiello stepped up to the task with ease.

RHP Bobby Howry
5.11 ERA, 1.54 WHIP with Chicago
Howry has been as bad as Eyre and so he gets to stay on the major league roster. Ohman, Eyre, and Pignatiello pitch in the pressure situations until Howry rights his ship, though.

RHP Carlos Marmol
0.00 ERA, 0.95 WHIP in 6.1 IP with Chicago
4-1, 3.95 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in 41 IP with Iowa (AAA)
Marmol has been throwing the ball decently with the big club. He ought to be the mop-up guy in the bullpen and should be the first person that the Cubs turn to if a starting pitcher gets hurt or struggles.

LHP Geoffrey Jones
0.54 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 6 saves in 16.2 IP with Tennessee (AA)
Another lefty reliever that could take Scott Eyre's place in the bullpen. He's also been ignored because the club wants Eyre to turn things around. Let Eyre figure out his shit in Iowa and give this 27-year-old a chance.

THE BENCH:

C Michael Barrett
41-168 (.244), 7 HR, 25 RBI, 15 runs scored with Chicago
He sits because he can't play defense worth shit and has a .293 onbase percentage.

2B Mark DeRosa
35-140 (.250), 5 HR, 21 RBI, 17 runs scored with Chicago
He draws walks, so he stays.

SS Ronny Cedeno
16-53 (.302), 1 HR, 5 RBI, 10 runs scored with Iowa (AAA)
Don't be fooled by Ryan Theriot. Theriot's been slumping and he's not the answer. Cedeno is.

LF/RF Cliff Floyd
31-104 (.298), 2 HR, 20 RBI, 12 runs scored with Chicago
Floyd is the left-handed bat off the bench. You don't need Ward.

OF Angel Pagan
12-42 (.286), 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3/3 steals with Chicago
He stays for speed and defense.

Tuesday, May 29, 2007

Take a fucking strike!

After Jason Marquis joined the sucky pitcher's movement and allowed a three-run homer to Hermida, the Cubs tried to get all three runs back in the next half inning. In one swing.

Alfonso Soriano took two balls out of the zone to lead off the bottom of the fifth, mainly because even he couldn't justify swinging at them. Soriano swung at the first pitch in the zone however and softly flew out.

Then, Izturis took ball 1 before swinging at the first strike he saw and flying weakly to center. Even Derrek Lee decided to be lazy, trying to pull a 2-0 pitch on the outer half of the plate and tapping to third.

A couple of innings ago, DeRosa and Barrett both decided to get picked off on the bases because they didn't feel like standing out there on the field. Why do all that running when you can be on your ass in the dugout instead?

No wonder nobody on this team has yet to complain about playing time. It's not because they're afraid of Lou; it's because they'd rather sleep.

Monday's loss not Eyre's fault

I'm sick of all these people that pretend to know and understand the game of baseball.

Did Eyre throw the ball poorly on Monday? Yes. Did Piniella leave him out there too long? Potentially. Did Eyre's poor performance cost us the game on Sunday? Yes. Did Eyre's performance cost us the game on Monday? Absolutely not.

For those of you that are thinking, "Wait a sec, but we scored three times in the ninth," think about the situation for a second! If you are still thinking the same thing, then you shouldn't be watching baseball. You've proven that you can count to three, that's about it.

Wait, you've also proven that you have no capability of any complex thought.

Marlins' closer Kevin Gregg sat down after the Marlins added the fifth run. Had the score been 3-0 (or even 4-0) going into the ninth inning, Gregg would've been there from the start. Replay the inning: do DeRosa and Theriot really reach against Gregg? Probably not, but that's exactly the point: we don't know! The game very well could've ended 3-0.

Monday, May 28, 2007

Eyre down, Pignatiello up

No, it didn't happen. Not yet. But it should.

Eyre shouldn't be costing the big club any more games while he tries to figure his shit out. Let him do that in Iowa.

Meanwhile, let's get someone that can throw and help the bullpen. Believe it or not, the bullpen isn't bad, Lou just needs to learn how to use it better.

Sure, we all had Eyre and Howry pegged as the two-headed eighth inning monster and Ryan Dempster in the ninth. But, all Lou needs to do is make a couple of adjustments and the bullpen can actually be halfway decent.

Guzman (as reliever): 12 IP, 9 H, 3 ER, 11 K; 2.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
Wuertz: 22 IP, 15 H, 4 ER, 18 K; .190 BAA, 1.64 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Dempster: 22.2 IP, 15 H, 10 ER, 22 K; .192 BAA, 3.97 ERA, 1.01 WHIP

Wuertz hasn't blown a save all year and has four holds. He should be in the eighth. Angel Guzman has steady enough numbers to be the seventh inning guy when the starters are unable to get there. Ryan Dempster is doing just fine as the closer, he's converted 11/12 saves; even Torres has blown three saves and Hoffman and Valverde have blown two a piece.

Bobby Howry can stay on the team and pitch in fewer meaningful situations until he finds his groove and Eyre can figure out his stuff in Iowa. Meanwhile, as far as lefty arms, we should have Will Ohman and Carmen Pignatiello.

Ohman (vs. lefties): 3-22 (.136), 0 HR, 1 RBI, 11 K
Pignatiello (AA/AAA combined): 21.2 IP, 13 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 16 K; .165 BAA, 0.78 WHIP.

Pignatiello is a tall 24-year-old left hander that has been with the Cubs organization since he was 18. Pignatiello pitched well in each year, climbing the minor league ranks slowly but surely. Pignatiello made six appearances (5.1 IP) at Spring Training this year and allowed just three hits and one earned run. He deserves a shot; he can't be worse than Eyre.

The final spot in the bullpen can go to Marmol or Marshall (when Miller returns) or whatever. Lou's got a good bullpen. It's just the guys that are good are not who he thought it would be.

Sunday, May 27, 2007

Lou tries to throw game away

It's 1-1 in the tenth right now at Chavez Ravine, but it should be game over.

Rich Hill was lifted after throwing just 66 pitches through 6 innings. That was the right move; he had to be lifted for Daryle Ward when we had a chance to score.

Michael Wuertz tossed a scoreless seventh and Lou played the top of the eighth perfectly, when he lifted Pagan for Ramirez with the bases loaded and two outs. Ramirez nearly blew the game open but missed a grand slam by a few feet.

Then, Lou Piniella had an aneurysm. I was screaming at my television as soon as Lou started walking out to the mound when Grady Little sent the left-handed Andre Ethier to the plate. I knew what Lou was thinking and in most cases I would've agreed. I'm always the one that wants to play the lefty-righty matchups, but Scott Eyre has been nothing but trouble.

Sure enough, Ethier tied the game on a 0-2 slider and now the Cubs will have to score again off of the Dodger bullpen if they want to win.

Then, Lou continued to try to give the game away. After Izturis led off the ninth with a walk, Piniella chose to burn his final pinch hitter, Cliff Floyd, instead of using Marquis to bunt. Floyd struck out weakly and Soriano, of course, hit into the inning-ending double play.

There's no room for Eyre on this team. Let him figure out his shit in Iowa and get a pitcher up here that can actually pitch.

Saturday, May 26, 2007

I saw it coming...

Worst part is, I'm not that devasted by this. I half-expected it.

The Cubs scored 7 times in the top of the seventh inning to cap a comeback and eventually take an 8-5 lead. I thought our bullpen would blow it in bottom of the seventh, but when Wuertz threw a perfect 7th, I felt confident. Instead, we Cubbed up the game in the 8th.

I knew Bobby had been struggling this year, but I didn't think that Bobby would blow another one. Not this way. But, after the lead-off single to Russ Martin, I felt four runs scoring. It almost seems like there's more pressure on with runners on base, even if it isn't the tying or go-ahead run. I would've preferred Martin homered to lead off the 8th.

It was the right move to turn to Bobby in the 8th. We needed him to rebound, and he is, after all, our 8th inning man. But that was the final straw; it's time to start thinking about switching some roles in the bullpen.

Michael Wuertz has a 1.80 ERA, a .197 average against, and most importantly hasn't blown a save yet...

Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Lou tries to play matchups

Lou Piniella stacked Wednesday night's lineup with all right-handed hitters, with the exception of pitcher Sean Marshall. Now, I understand that he wants to get right handers in against David Wells, but Lou could've spent ten seconds and looked at Boomer's splits.

Over the last three full seasons, lefties are hitting 119-384 (.320) against Wells, while righties are 401-1432 (.280). This year, the splits are even more drastic as lefties are hitting nearly .400 against the Padres' pitcher, but Piniella went ahead and went out of his way to put in righties.

Sean Marshall was called up yesterday to make the start today. To me, that seems like a waste. Couldn't we have kept Cotts in the bullpen for yesterday's game, just in case? We weren't gonna use Marshall yesterday, so why call him up?

Also, I understand that Lou is not resting on his laurels and trying to send a message that he's not okay with where the team stands right now. But, Lou should be fucking with the guys that are not producing! Instead, Piniella pushed Ted Lilly, who has 8 quality starts, by two days, to throw Sean Marshall for the hell of it.

Hopefully, he knows something I don't.

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Tuesday's lineup posted, nothing special

Okay, so before the game on Tuesday, Neal Cotts was sent to Iowa (AAA) to make room on the roster for Sean Marshall. After posting a 1.76 ERA through his first 14 appearances, two bad appearances shot Cotts' ERA to 4.86 for the season and now Sean Marshall is with the big club.

With Angel Guzman returning to the bullpen, it's possible that Marshall could be expected to start as soon as Thursday, but if Marshall would be inserted into the rotation, why call him up now? It's possible Marshall will be an emergency option in the bullpen and will start on Thursday if he's not needed until then.

Tuesday night's lineup doesn't see anything special. Alfonso Soriano returned to the lead-off spot and while I know he's better suited as the team's fourth or fifth place hitter, Soriano was brought to the Cubs with the promise that he would lead off. Ryan Theriot hits second, followed by Lee, Ramirez, Floyd and Barrett. Jones is the seventh hitter in center, Izturis is at short, followed by Hill.

Lou promised some extraordinary changes and I know that at one point he'd contemplated moving Dempster into the rotation. However, it looks like as of this point, nothing special will take place...yet.

Friday, May 18, 2007

Dempster rebounds in win

Angel Pagan has been hot, so he got to play center field and bat second. That seemed to work, as Pagan drove in the game-tying runs on his third hit of the day and scored the winning run on Toby Hall's passed ball. Lilly threw seven strong innings for his eighth quality start and picked up his fourth win of the year.

In the eighth inning, I thought Lou should've lifted Cliff Floyd after Ozzie made the switch to force the lefty-lefty matchup. Len and Bob were speculating that Derrek Lee would hit for Floyd, and I was kind of hoping Lee was healthy enough to bat. Obviously, if Lee wasn't well enough to bat, it was the right thing to leave Floyd in there, so I really can't hold that against Lou. Besides, Floyd got the job done; he drove the run home.

I absolutely agree with how Lou handled the bullpen. He had Wuertz and Howry warming in the seventh inning, but when we took the lead in the bottom of that inning, Wuertz sat down and Howry got the call. I know Bobby's been struggling this year, but if we want to be successful, we need him to take the eighth inning role. At the time, it was only a one-run game so Lou again made the right decision by having Ohman throwing in the bullpen just in case.

Then, with a three-run lead in the ninth, Piniella didn't hesitate to go back to Dempster. Despite his struggles yesterday, Dempster was still 8-for-9 in saves and he is, unquestionably, the team's closer. I'm glad that the Cubs gave Dempster another chance right after his meltdown yesterday and I'm glad Dempster could rebound and convert the save.

I would've liked to have seen us run on Toby Hall a little more, however. I understand that Mark Buehrle is one of the best in the game at holding runners on, but it seemed to be like Hall was short-arming the ball back to Buehrle every time. I wasn't convinced that Hall would've been able to get the ball all the way to second base.

Piniella promises change

Before the Cubs' Friday afternoon matchup against the White Sox, manager Lou Piniella jokingly called himself the worst manager in baseball, because he was unable to hold a four-run lead the night before.

Piniella made all the right moves though. Dempster had to come into that ballgame when he did because of the magnitude of that game and the short bullpen. He had to bring in Scott Eyre to face Shawn Green, even though he knew David Wright was on the bench, because Delgado followed Green.

Piniella then went on and promised the Chicago media that come Monday or Tuesday, he would do things that would surprise a few people, but wouldn't get into specifics. The fact that he wanted to wait until Monday or Tuesday leads me to believe that this involves the health of Derrek Lee, Mark DeRosa, and/or Angel Guzman. Hmmm...perhaps Guzman will play center field and Lee will bat eighth and play right field. Okay, maybe not.

Whatever the revolutionary change may be, I'm looking forward to it. The team as is is not producing results. I was calling for a change of large magnitudes earlier, so I'm excited to see how Piniella will shake up the team. Whatever he does, the team can't get any worse.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Zambrano, Eyre show signs of improvement

I'm not sure whether or not I buy the new arm slot excuse, but whatever he fixed, I'll take it. Zambrano threw eight quality innings against the Mets, holding the explosive New York offense to just one run, a solo homerun by Shawn Green, en route to a 10-1 rout of the Mets. Scott Eyre then finished the masterful performance with a 1-2-3 ninth inning.

Meanwhile, Derrick Turnbow showed he was human for the second straight day and now we find ourselves only six games in back of Milwaukee with a tough schedule approaching for both teams. Dating back to May 11, six of the seven opponents will be the same: Philadelphia, New York, Los Angeles, San Diego, Atlanta, and Florida. The only difference is the one interleague series; the Cubs face the Sox while the Brewers take on the Twins. After this stretch of games, the two teams will then hook up for what looks to be a critical three-game series at Miller Park.

With the two teams virtually on an identical schedule, this next month will be a true test of whether or not the Cubs are better than Milwaukee. So far, in the five games against the common opponents, the Cubs are 2-3 while the Brewers are 1-4.

Tomorrow, the Cubs will look to pin the first loss on Jorge Sosa's record, after dropping John Maine to 5-1. The Brewers get the task of handing Cole Hamels his second loss of the year.

Saturday, May 5, 2007

Carpenter out three more months

About a week ago, the Cardinals were excited as Chris Carpenter threw off of the bullpen mound before a game with the Astros.

Then, after dealing with the tragedy involving Josh Hancock and losing four of five games after that, the Cardinals have announced that their ace pitcher will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his throwing arm, which will keep him out of action for at least another three months.

I understand it's only May 5, but the Cardinals could potentially fall eight games out of first place by the end of the night. Not only that, just looking at the team shows you that this team is too weak to contend for the division title. Yes, too weak for even the NL Central.

The starting rotation right now consists of Kip Wells, Adam Wainwright, Anthony Reyes, Brad Thompson and Braden Looper. Of the five, only Looper has pitched decently, posting a 3-2 record with a 2.84 ERA. Reyes and Wells each have five losses and three have an ERA higher than 5.

There used to be a time when the Cardinals offense would be able to bail out that kind of pitching. That time, however, is not now. The Cardinals have been shut out four times already and have scored four or fewer runs 22 times so far in 28 games. I'm not ready to write the Cardinals off just yet. But, it's real close.

Thursday, May 3, 2007

Cubs need to improve in one-run games

The title seems a bit obvious, since the Cubs are 0-6 in one run games.

Upon seeing that we're second in the division with 127 runs scored and second in the league having allowed just 98 runs, we shouldn't be under .500 and 5 1/2 games out of first place. The first place thing has to do with the fact that the best team in baseball so far is in our division and that'll change. The Brewers are good, but they're not that good. But, according to the Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball, the Cubs should currently have 16.3 wins, not 12.

So, what's the issue?

The bullpen hasn't been all that bad, actually. Cotts hasn't allowed a run in 8 2/3 innings, while Wuertz has allowed just two runs in 14 1/3 innings. Dempster is 5-for-5 in saves and believe it or not, the bullpen as a whole has blown only three saves, while Wuertz, Ohman, and Howry have combined for seven holds. That's a holds adjusted save percentage of 80% as a team!

The problem seems to be the timing of our runs. Much like Sosa and a lot of his homeruns, we seem to be scoring when it doesn't really matter and we can't score when we need them (back to the 0-6 one run record).

We've scored six or more runs on 9 different occasions so far and we are 9-0. That's good. But we've also managed to lose six games when the opponent has scored four or fewer runs.

The Cubs may not be clutch hitters, but there's one thing I know about baseball. These things will even out, or at least they're supposed to. The Brewers should be 15-12 according to the Pythagorean Theorem, but they're 5-2 in one-run games. So Cub fans can take joy in the fact that according to Bill James, we should be leading the Brewers (and trail only New York in the entire NL).

Wednesday, May 2, 2007

Lou brings in Eyre to face one batter in six-run ballgame

With a left-handed batter coming up with two outs in the ninth inning, manager Lou Piniella decided to go get his right-handed pitcher, calling for Scott Eyre.

That kind of a headline would make you think it was a one- or two-run ballgame. But, it wasn't.

The score was 7-1 and the Pirates had the bases empty with two outs, when Eyre came on to face the struggling Adam LaRoche. Piniella was catching some flak for that decision; many thought that he was unncessarily delaying the game. In most cases, he would've been. In today's case, it was a good move.

I wasn't worried about losing the ballgame and neither was Lou. But, Scott Eyre is such an integral part of the ballclub and we needed him to get things turned around. What better way to do it then to put Eyre in a situation where he was bound to succeed so he can gain some confidence and momentum?

The stage was set. The game was out of reach and there was only one out to get. Adam LaRoche, a left-handed batter, a struggling left-handed batter at that, came up to the plate. It was a good decision. Too bad Eyre almost made it backfire as LaRoche flied to the warning track out in center field to end the game.

Don't look now, but the Cubs are rolling

Alfonso Soriano still can't run the bases, but at least he's doing some other things right.

We're 5 1/2 games in back of first place, but I'm feeling good about the team right now. Maybe it's because of the double wins on Wednesday. Maybe it's because we've won five of our last six. In fact, it probably is. We may not be hitting for power all that well, but we sure are hitting. And the power will come.

Derrek Lee has 19 for his last 32 in the past eight games and has doubled at least once in each one of those games, raising his season average to .415 and his OPS to a staggering 1.092. That number is especially outstanding when you consider the fact that Lee has homered only once so far. He's doubled 17 times though.

You might say, "Of course the numbers are going to be inflated. It's early in the season." I was thinking that too, but Lee's already played in 26 games and had 106 official times at-bat!

Alfonso Soriano, despite missing over a week due to the hamstring injury has still recorded 84 official times at-bat and collected 26 hits (.310 average) and 11 doubles (.512 slugging).

The starting pitching has been incredible too. Marquis is 4-1 with a 2.09 ERA and Hill is 3-1 with a 1.77 ERA. Lilly's ERA is down below 3, even after a rough start last time out and Cotts and Wuertz have combined to allow just 2 runs in 23 innings. Oh, and Dempster is a perfect 5-for-5 in saves.

You can't help but thinking how good this team will be once Zambrano, Howry, and Eyre start pitching well and when Soriano and Lee start hitting homeruns consistantly. Knowing the Cubs luck though, Marquis, Hill, and Lilly will forget how to grip a baseball at that point.

As long as we keep pace with the Cards and Astros, we're good, because Milwaukee can't run away with the division, right? Or can they? We've been trained to think that the Brewers are not a good ball club for so long that it's stuck, but it's time we start jumping on a horse to catch those pesky Brewers.

Sunday, April 29, 2007

Cubs, Cards mourn loss of Hancock

Twenty-three games into the season and the Cubs finally have their first sweep of the year. You'd think I'd be happier, but I definitely didn't want it to happen this way.

With the Cubs having won the first two of what was to be a three-game series, the team went to bed on Saturday thinking about Sunday's game. Now, they're not thinking about the game at all; they're mourning the death of pitcher Josh Hancock.

Hancock was killed early Sunday morning in St. Louis after his vehicle collided with a tow truck that was on the road attending a previous accident. Of course, I still remember a teary-eyed Joe Girardi walking on the field at Wrigley five years ago announcing that the game had been canceled due to the sudden passing of Darryl Kile.

The team remembered that too. Just three days ago, Hancock had overslept thinking that the game was later than it was. His worried teammates feared the worst and repeated called him until Hancock finally woke up on the "20th call". Now what they had feared has become a reality.

In 2002, the Cardinals lost five of the seven games following the death of Kile, but ultimately rebounded with a 97 wins and a division title. The Cubs lost 9 of their next 13 and finished with 69 victories.

Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Ramirez fucks up 3-0 count; Zambrano doesn't care

I never expected Carlos Zambrano to stop caring...

Zambrano's been throwing his third best pitch, his slider over and over again. It cost him 26 pitches and four runs to through the first inning.

In the top of the first inning, Aramis Ramirez grounded into a double play ball on a 3-0 count and before the Francoeur homerun, Mark DeRosa decided to take one out at first, because he was too lazy to turn around and throw to second for the double play.

And now Floyd is trying to tie the game with a three-run homerun with the bases empty.

I'm surprised they even showed up to the park.

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

If they don't care, then I sure as fuck don't

What the fuck was that?

Ronny Cedeno takes strike three to end the 14-inning game after every other Cub hitter swung at shit three feet over their heads. Lou Piniella doesn't like to play the guys in their right positions and so a pair of bullshit doubles past Theriot in right and Jones in left end up plating the deciding run.

I thought that nobody could be stupider than Dusty. While Lou hasn't reached the state of mental retardation as Baker, he's closely creeping up there. I understand that Lee made the final out of the 13th inning and I understand that Ward is your last position player, but you still don't take Derrek Lee out of the game. So what if Lee doesn't bat again? He brings so much to the game, his bat isn't the only asset.

And then Lou decides to run for Ward. Who was gonna play first base in the 15th, Lou? Jason Marquis?

Alfonso Soriano needs to stop acting like a pussy, everyone needs to stop swinging at shit over the heads and we need to stop losing games in which the opposing team strands 17 baserunners. I have no problem supporting and suffering with a losing team, but I do have a problem pouring out my emotions if the team itself doesn't give a shit.

It look me too long to figure that out last year, so I suppose I'll lucky that I'm realizing this now: the Cubs just don't give a shit. Ronny Cedeno and Aramis Ramirez didn't even look upset after the strikeout in the 14th and no one in the dugout so much as moved when Ward reached on the wind-blown double.

Will Ohman needs to go to Iowa, because he's bad. Wade Miller needs to go to Iowa, because he's bad. Ramirez, Cedeno, Jones, and Soriano also need to go to Iowa, so that they get a fucking wake-up call.

Give Walrond the fifth starter's job and call up Guzman. Murton, Pie and Coats can play the outfield and put Ryan Theriot at third base. They'll be bad, but they can't be any worse than the team as is right now. Atleast they'll try.

Until then, however, I'm done. I'm sick of this shit and I refuse to give a damn until things change. Again, let me make it clear that I'm not upset about the losing; I'm upset about the lack of effort.

Friday, April 13, 2007

Piniella can't make team care

After watching today's game against the Cincinnati Reds, I have recieved confirmation of something that I suspected for the entire first week of the season.

The effect of Dusty Baker has remained with the team, and even Lou Piniella can't make the team give a damn.

Whether it's Soriano being too lazy to return to first base on a pick off attempt or Will Ohman giving the other team two runs just for the hell of it, it's obvious that the team would rather sit on the bench and watch the game than actually play in it.

We're still trying to hit three-run homers with the bases empty, swinging for the fences with the wind blowing in, and the fundamentals of the game are not only okay to be ignored, but actually encouraged. The team as it is right now isn't winning and Lou needs to do something radical to get this team motivated. I've said all along that I will stand by a losing team, but I refuse to stand by a team that doesn't care.

Hmmm...I bet that the triple-A team would like to play in the major leagues. Certainly, they can't do any worse than the big club right now.

Sunday, April 1, 2007

Cubs, Zambrano real close to deal

An unconfirmed source reported that ace pitcher Carlos Zambrano is close to signing a five-year deal with the Cubs. Though currently under a one-year deal that would pay Zambrano $12.4 million, the new deal would take precedence.

Zambrano, who tied for the league lead in wins last year, had initially issued an Opening Day deadline for a long-term deal to be made. However, with Opening Day nearing closer and closer and the deal almost finalized, Zambrano has decided to give the team a few extra days.

Initially, it was believed that Zambrano wanted a deal similar to what Barry Zito earned this off-season: $126 million over seven years. Instead, his desire to work out a deal and stay with the Cubs have his agent and the team discussing a five-year deal worth around $80 million.

The pitching staff would be in trouble if Zambrano would leave the club after 2007, as that leaves Hill, Marquis, and Lilly on the team with a slim free-agent market for pitchers next off-season.

Friday, March 30, 2007

Cubs leave Arizona with bats on fire

Now, I understand that it's only Spring Training, but I love how the Cactus League season turned out and especially how it ended. We only lost one game in the last seven (5 wins, 1 draw) in Arizona and our offense has been amazing.

There are still two exhibition games remaining, but the numbers that our bats have been putting have really excite me. Derrek Lee, who doubled 12 times this month, led all of baseball with a .469 average (30-64), while Aramis Ramirez finished with a .387 (24-62) average. Both tied for the league lead with 19 RBI's, while Ramirez's 7 homeruns led the Cactus League.

Another player worth mentioning is Ryan Theriot, who definitely earned his spot on the roster. He hit .371 (26-70) while stealing seven bases in seven tries. Ronny Cedeno earned his spot, too. He hit .339 (20-59) and clubbed three homers, including a game-winner last week.

The Cubs were last in the National League last year in drawing walks, with only 395. Only three other teams in the league drew fewer than 500 walks and three teams managed more than 600. It appears, for the moment, however, that Lou Piniella and the Cubs fixed that problem. In 30 games, the team drew 109 walks, including 7 or more from six different players. Pro-rating that over a 162-game season, that's 589 walks, which would've been fifth in the National League last year. Also encouraging was the fact that our pitchers allowed just 90 walks, which pro-rates to 486, a much better improvement 687 walks, which was 65 more than any other team last year.

The Cubs also improved on last year's .741 team OPS, as six players had an OPS over or near .900: Derrek Lee (1.290), Aramis Ramirez (1.272), Ronny Cedeno (.985), Cliff Floyd (.970), Michael Barrett (.918), and Matt Murton (.880).

The .571 winning percentage the team posted this Spring computes to 93 wins, which would've not only won the division but would've trailed only the Mets in the entire league.

Of course, I understand how ridiculous all of this speculation is for two reasons, the most obvious being the fact that these numbers are from Spring Training; they don't count. Also, we're pro-rating a month's performance over the course of entire season.

Nonetheless, it does bring optimism to the upcoming season. Is next year finally here?

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

A look at the Spring numbers

NAMED TO THE TEAM:

Pitchers:
Carlos Zambrano: 1-1, 3.68 ERA; 14 2/3 IP, 15 H, 6 ER, 5 BB, 16 K.
Ted Lilly: 1-0, 2.08 ERA; 8 2/3 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K.
Jason Marquis: 1-1, 2.00 ERA; 9 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K.
Rich Hill: 1-1, 4.50 ERA; 10 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 10 K.
Wade Miller: 1-0, 5.11 ERA; 12 1/3 IP, 19 H, 7 ER, 4 BB, 11 K.

Angel Guzman: 0-0, 6.52 ERA, 9 2/3 IP, 14 H, 7 ER, BB, 2 K.
Michael Wuertz: 0-0, 0.00 ERA; 2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K.
Neal Cotts: 0-0, 7.20 ERA; 10 IP, 20 H, 8 ER, BB, 6 K.
Will Ohman: 0-1, 5.14 ERA; 7 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 8 K.
Scott Eyre: 0-0, 4.50 ERA; 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 7 K.
Bobby Howry: 0-0, 5.63 ERA; 8 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 4 K.
Ryan Dempster: 0-0, 2.25 ERA; 4 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K.

Catchers:
Michael Barrett: 10-34 (.294), 3 HR, 6 R, 9 RBI; .450 OBP, .922 OPS; 1/1 SB.
Henry Blanco: 2-21 (.095), 0 HR, 1 R, 0 RBI; .095 OBP, .190 OPS.

Infielders:
Derrek Lee: 20-39 (.513), 2 HR, 11 R, 10 RBI; .537 OBP, 1.332 OPS.
Mark DeRosa: 7-29 (.241), 0 HR, 3 R, 1 RBI; .405 OBP, .681 OPS.
Aramis Ramirez: 13-37 (.351), 3 HR, 7 R, 10 RBI; .415 OBP, 1.118 OPS.
Cesar Izturis: 9-25 (.360), 0 HR, 8 R, 2 RBI; .500 OBP, .900 OPS.
Daryle Ward: 5-32 (.156), 1 HR, 4 R, 6 RBI; .182 OBP, .495 OPS.
Ryan Theriot: 18-46 (.391), 0 HR, 8 R, 5 RBI; .451 OBP, 1.016 OPS; 3/3 SB.

Outfielders:
Matt Murton: 11-42 (.262), 3 HR, 7 R, 9 RBI; .353 OBP, .877 OPS.
Alfonso Soriano: 13-40 (.325), 2 HR, 8 R, 3 RBI; .372 OBP, .947 OPS; 2/3 SB.
Jacque Jones: 13-40 (.325), 1 HR, 8 R, 12 RBI; .341 OBP, .816 OPS; 3/3 SB.
Cliff Floyd: 5-15 (.333), 1 HR, 4 R, 5 RBI; .444 OBP, 1.044 OPS.

ON THE BUBBLE:

Infielders:
Ronny Cedeno: 11-39 (.282), 1 HR, 7 R, 3 RBI; .378 OBP, .788 OPS; 1/1 SB.

Outfielders:
Angel Pagan: 3-16 (.188), 0 HR, 1 R, 0 RBI; .350 OBP, .538 OPS; 4/4 SB.
Buck Coats: 14-36 (.389), 0 HR, 5 R, 3 RBI; .450 OBP, .922 OPS; 1/1 SB.

IMPORTANT NOTABLES:

Pitchers:
Rocky Cherry: 0-1, 1.13 ERA; 8 IP, 5 H, ER, 4 BB, 11 K; 3/3 Saves.
Carmen Pignatiello: 0-1, 1.69 ERA; 5 1/3 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 1 K.
Mark Prior: 0-1, 18.90 ERA; 3 1/3 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 5 BB, 0 K.
Kerry Wood: 1-0, 12.00 ERA; 3 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 4 K.
Jeff Samardzija: 0-0, 1.80 ERA; 5 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K.

Catchers:
Jake Fox: 6-13 (.462), 2 HR, 5 R, 7 RBI; .533 OBP, 1.610 OPS.
Geovany Soto: 5-13 (.295), 0 HR, 2 R, 6 RBI; .438 OBP, 1.130 OPS.

Infielders:
Micah Hoffpauir: 6-17 (.353), 1 HR, 7 R, 3 RBI; .450 OBP, 1.215 OPS.
Casey McGehee: 4-12 (.333), 0 HR, 0 R, 3 RBI; .385 OBP, .802 OPS.
Eric Patterson: 5-12 (.417), 1 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI; .417 OBP, 1.167 OPS; 1/1 SB.

Outfielders:
Felix Pie: 17-46 (.370), 0 HR, 6 R, 5 RBI; .420 OBP, .855 OPS; 3/4 SB.

Monday, March 19, 2007

Cubs score 27 runs in one day; 25-man roster becomes clearer

Just a day after the Chicago Cubs had been held to two hits against John Lackey and the rest of the Angels bullpen, the Cubs made up for their lack of offense by scoring 27 times and pounding 38 hits against the Mariners and Brewers, en route to two wins.

Against Seattle, Soriano led the game off with a homerun, but the offense kept pouring it on. Theriot and Lee each collected four hits in the game, while Ramirez, Barrett, Floyd, Rojas, and McGehee all joined Soriano for a two-hit day.

Barrett homered twice in the game, while Ramirez's homerun capped a five-run first.

Wade Miller, the likely fifth starter, started today's game going 3 1/3 innings while allowing six hits and three earned runs, a three-run blast to Beltre. Howry and Cotts each added more than one inning of scoreless relief, and most encouraging of all was the fact that the entire staff did not allow a walk. I guess it's easier to pitch with a double-digit lead, which the Cubs had had since the fourth inning.

Meanwhile in Phoenix, the other half of the Cubs also scored five times in the first, thanks in large part to a three-run homerun by center fielder Jacque Jones. Felix Pie, Ronny Cedeno, and Daryle Ward each had multi-hit days along with Jones, while Ward drove in four.

Sean Gallagher started for the Cubs and allowed three runs over three innings. Sean Marshall, Roberto Novoa, and Rocky Cherry all tossed scoreless innings in relief, which is encouraging news.

Before the games, however, manager Lou Piniella announced that he does not intend on rushing Prior or Wood into the regular season, meaning that the two pitchers will likely stay in Arizona for atleast the beginning of April. Michael Wuertz and Roberto Novoa returned to action three days ago, each tossing a scoreless inning, meaning they could take up spots in the bullpen, but because of their uncertainity to be able to work on back-to-back days, Piniella may look elsewhere for the beginning of the season.

With Guzman announced to be the team's long reliever, six spots remain in the bullpen, five of which will go to Howry, Eyre, Ohman, Cotts, and closer Ryan Dempster. The last two weeks of camp will show whether it's Wuertz, Novoa, or Cherry that gets that spot. The five starters will be Zambrano, Lilly, Marquis, Hill, and Miller, leaving room for only five backup players on the roster.

After counting catcher Henry Blanco, infielders Ryan Theriot and Daryle Ward, and outfielder Cliff Floyd (or Murton, whichever way you see it), one spot remains, with three contenders: Cedeno, Pagan, and Coats.

Thursday, March 15, 2007

Floyd, Ramirez homer, but bad news for Prior, Wood

The Chicago Cubs routed the Seattle Mariners (ss) 9-3 earlier today, as Floyd and Ramirez both hit homers. Soriano went 3-for-3 and scored twice while Lilly threw 3 2/3 innings, allowing four hits and an earned run, but was displeased about his control.

The news surrounding Cubs camp, however, is the future status of pitchers Mark Prior and Kerry Wood.

Prior will go on to make his previously scheduled start in minor league camp on Friday, but reports indicate that he may not break camp with the big club, putting Wade Miller solidly in the lead for the fifth spot in the rotation. Also, Kerry Wood suffered a minor strain in his right arm, but luckily for the team, his modulus of elasticity isn't that high, so the stress on the team won't be all that great (sorry, you engineers got the joke though). His status is day-to-day.

If Prior and Wood don't make the team, Guzman is almost a shoe-in for the bullpen, but Piniella is going to want to carry twelve pitchers, especially in April, meaning there are still two spots to fill (previously filled by Novoa and Wuertz). Cherry seems like he'll make the team, but the last spot is still undecided.

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Position battles continue as off-day is upon us

The Chicago Cubs have made it to the off-day in their exhibition schedule, which means that the preseason is just less than half over. The Cubs enter their mini-break with a 7-6 record which is sixth best among 12 Cactus League teams, but their performance shows more reason for optimism.

To me, 22 of the 25 roster spots are settled. Zambrano, Lilly, Hill, and Marquis are four of the five starters, while the bullpen should consist of Cotts, Ohman, Eyre, Wood, Dempster, and two others. The two catchers are obvious, and the announcement that Ryan Theriot will break camp with the big team makes the six infielders equally obvious. The outfielders should include Murton, Soriano, Jones, Floyd, and Pagan.

The final spot in the rotation I considered to be Prior's to lose, and so far, he has. The once highly coveted pitcher has allowed seven earned runs in 3.1 innings and will make a minor league start this Friday. Of most concern is the fact that Prior has only been able to throw one pitch all spring (the fastball) and has failed to get much velocity or control behind it. Looking to fill that spot include prospect Angel Guzman, who's allowed just a pair of earned runs in 6.1 innings as well as former Astros ace Wade Miller, who has a 4.00 ERA but a 1.89 WHIP in nine innings. Lefty Neal Cotts has apparently run himself out of contention, by allowing six earned runs and seventeen hits in 7 innings, but should still make the team as the long reliever.

Heading into Spring Training, Roberto Novoa and Michael Wuertz were locks in the bullpen for me, but now it appears that the door has been swung open for youngsters Rocky Cherry and Carmen Pignatiello. Cherry has been serving as the team's closer in March, converting all three of his save opportunities while posting allowing just a run on four hits, while fanning nine batters in 5.1 innings. Meanwhile, Pignatiello has allowed just one hit in 5 innings.

It's more likely, however, that Guzman, Miller, and Prior all make the big league club, leaving Cherry and Pignatiello to start yet another season in the minor league ranks.

Of course, I understand how foolish it is to be debating roster spots when no pitcher has thrown more than nine innings, but with Opening Day less than three weeks away, we have to atleast start speculating.

Left field is also a job up for grabs this March. Though initially believed to be Matt Murton's job, the acquisition of free-agent Cliff Floyd brings about a whole new scenario of possibilities. Despite the fact that Murton is hitting .308 (8-26) and has two homeruns this spring, it appears that manager Lou Piniella likes the idea of having Cliff Floyd's bat in the middle of the lineup, allowing him to move Jacque Jones into the two spot of the batting order.

Other notable Cubs who have had good Spring numbers thus far include first basemen Derrek Lee, who leads the team with a .520 (13-25) average. Ramirez, despite a slow start, is now hitting .375 (9-24) and Izturis' .412 (7-17) has been a pleasant surprise. More good news is that Barrett appears to be shaking off his injury issues at the end of last season; he has a .333 (8-24) average.

Most encouraging for me, however, is the performance of the pitching staff, mainly the fact that Jason Marquis has yet to implode. Marquis has allowed just two earned runs in 9 innings and more importantly no homers and just two walks, while Lilly has surrendered one run on four hits and (get this) no walks in 5 innings. Zambrano and Hill have looked equally solid.

Monday, March 12, 2007

Zambrano triples, falls, then fans five in Cubs win

The Cubs kept rolling today, improving their Cactus League record to 7-5, despite losing the first three decisions of the exhibition season.

Carlos Zambrano was the starting pitcher of the game, but was able to bat before pitching thanks to a six-run first inning by the Cubs. With a runner on second and two outs, Zambrano lined an 0-2 pitch off of the right field wall and fell en route to third base. While it provided a scare for many of the Cubs, Zambrano showed he was just fine, throwing four innings and allowing just two runs on three hits, while fanning five. Most important of all, Zambrano didn't walk a single batter, showing possible signs of improving from his league-high 115 walks allowed last year.

The battle for left field also got a bit interesting as Cliff Floyd made his debut with the Cubs. Floyd, who was sidelined due to a foot surgery he underwent in the winter, knocked in two runs in his first at-bat. Murton, the other candidate for left field, did not play today. He has a .304 average (7-23) and has hit 2 homeruns this spring.

Also on the mound today for the Cubs, were Samardzija, who tossed two scoreless frames and Ohman and Pignatiello, who each contributed one scoreless inning.

Saturday, March 10, 2007

Hill, Theriot to break camp

Manager Lou Piniella has announced that left-hander Rich Hill and infielder Ryan Theriot will make the major league team on Opening Day. Neither move comes as a surprise, though I'm wondering why Hill needed to be told that he would make the team; I had him as the team's #2 starter.

Whether or not he is the second-best starter on the team, Hill will start the season's fourth game. After Zambrano on Opening Day, Ted Lilly will start the second game. Followed by an unknown (likely Prior) pitcher, then Hill and Marquis.

The decision to add Ryan Theriot to the team was expected by most experts, but may come as a surprise to the casual fan. Theriot will become the team's sixth infielder, as Lee, DeRosa, Ramirez, and Izturis are the starters and Ward is the top bat off of the bench, leaving Ronny Cedeno in the minor leagues. The decision makes sense though; Cedeno is too good to not be playing every day, even if it is in Iowa. Right now, Theriot will serve as the utility infielder.

I project the team to go with five outfielders (Pagan as the fifth) and two catchers, leaving 7 relievers: my guesses would are Dempster, Eyre, Ohman, Cotts (if he doesn't start), Howry, Novoa, and Wood.

Friday, March 2, 2007

Zambrano fans four, guarantees title

In just the second day of Cactus League play, Carlos Zambrano fanned four batters while allowing just one hit in two innings. The Cubs ace then went on to say that he thinks he can win this year's Cy Young and guaranteed a World Series victory this October.

Despite the 9-6 loss to LA (and not considering Zambrano's predictions), the Cubs continued to raise my expectations for the 2007 season. The team lost the game only thanks to five runs off of Clay Rapada, but the regulars looked real good. Matt Murton collected three hits and drove in four, while Derrek Lee's hit was his second in as many games. Also, Cesar Izturis responded to Piniella's search for a two-hole hitter by wrapping two hits and scoring twice from that position in the batting order.

The next few games will tell a lot more about this year's team; Miller, Hill, and Prior, all three of whom are going to have to stay healthy and consistent if the Cubs are to be successful in 2007, will start the next three games.

It's nice to be back in baseball season.

Friday, February 16, 2007

Questions rise as Wood is hurt...again

It seems like every year about this time, we learn of a new injury for Kerry Wood. Though the Chicago Cubs claim that Mark Prior and Wade Miller did successfully throw off of a mound in Fitch Park on Thursday, the team reports that Kerry Wood will be sidelined four to five days after bruising his rib, while exiting his hot tub earlier in the week.

This is what is troubling to me:

According to the report, Wood suffered the injury on Monday (three days ago) and will be out another four to five days. That means that it will take an entire week for bruised rib to heal. Understandable, but why have the Cubs waited until now to inform the public?

In the past, the Cubs have been notorious for underestimating the length of recovery time for pitchers. Severely. I still remember three years ago when a five-to-ten day sideline for Mark Prior slowly turned into two weeks, then a month, then eventually three months.

I just want the club to be straight with me. What is wrong with Kerry Wood? Is he suffering all of these injuries from steriods and the team is having a hard time covering them up with lame excuses? After they've run out of legitimate excuses for long-term absences, has the team resorted to short-term excuses that progressively get longer? And when they finally ran out of those, is the team now reporting injuries that "happened" several days ago, so that they can artificially increase the recovery time? At this point, I wouldn't put it past them.

Right now, Kerry Wood doesn't concern me much. I didn't slate him to play any significant part on the team in 2007. Ryan Dempster is the closer and the rest of the bullpen looks just fine with Howry, Eyre, and Ohman. I just won't be surprised to hear in a couple of more days from now that "complications" arose from his injuries and that he would just need "a little more time" before he starts throwing. Kind of like when Wood said last year that he wasn't hurt, but was going on the disabled list anyway...

I'm just keeping my fingers crossed that Mark Prior doesn't sleepwalk into a mirror, sneeze too hard, or get hit by a comebacker in the next six weeks. Or six months, or six years. We need Prior for the rotation.

Thursday, February 15, 2007

Zambrano issues ultimatum, Ryu traded

As pitchers and catchers reported to Spring Training (already?), the Chicago Cubs traded pitcher Jae Kuk Ryu to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for minor leaguers Andy Lopez and Greg Reinhard.

Ryu posted an 8-8 record with a 3.23 ERA in 23 starts for Iowa (AAA) last year, despite struggling in 10 appearances with the major league club. In all, Ryu has a 36-28 record with a 3.42 ERA in 6 years with 6 different minor league teams within the Cubs organization. Lopez hit .256 with Princeton (R), while Reinhard posted a 6-10 record and a 4.50 ERA with Southwest Michigan (low-A). Ryu is expected to compete for a spot in the starting rotation.

The bigger news involving the Chicago Cubs, however, is the ultimatum that ace pitcher Carlos Zambrano issued. Zambrano and the team are currently set to undergo an arbitration hearing on February 20 if the two sides can not agree on a salary for the 2007 season. Of more importance, though, is the fact that Zambrano has stated if he isn't signed to a multi-year deal by February 20, he would not be a Cub in the 2008 season.

Zambrano, who tied for the league lead in wins last year, is believed to be wanting a contract similar to the one that Barry Zito received this past off-season, 7 years for $126 million.

I personally feel that the Cubs should pay Zambrano exactly what he wants. We already signed Soriano to a $136 million contract for eight years and failing to keep Zambrano on the team would be a big mistake. Without Zambrano, the value of the team decreases severely, and signing Soriano becomes a waste.

If Zambrano wants a Zito-esque contract right now, give it to him! The fact of the matter is that Zambrano stands to make much more than that should he test the waters nine months from now. If the Cubs need more time to negotiate (they've already have plenty, though), the Cubs should offer a reasonable amount to sign Zambrano for the 2007 season. Failing to avoid arbitration and/or sign Zambrano to a multi-year deal by Opening Day, however, is unacceptable.

Thursday, January 25, 2007

Cubs sign Floyd, release Rusch

The Chicago Cubs have signed a deal with free agent outfielder Cliff Floyd to a one-year, $3 million deal that includes a mutual option for the 2008 season. The left-handed batter will serve as the club's fourth outfielder, behind Murton in left, Jones in right, and Soriano in center field.

Earlier during the off-season, center field was a major question mark for the team. According to manager Lou Piniella, Soriano insisted on playing a corner outfield spot and leading off before signing with the Cubs, leaving three players fighting for two positions and no center fielder. While it is likely that Soriano will lead off, the recently converted outfielder has agreed to give center field a try.

Finally, the off-season dilemmas have been resolved.

Also, the Cubs have also released Glendon Rusch. The left-hander, who posted a 3-8 record last season, missed the final weeks of the year due to a life-threatening blood clot in his lungs. After Rusch's condition did not improve in the following months, the Cubs had no choice but to grant his release. Rusch, however, does not intend retire.

Monday, January 22, 2007

Floyd close to signing; Zambrano, Prior not

The Associated Press and the Chicago Sun-Times have reported that the Chicago Cubs are close to signing free agent outfielder Cliff Floyd to a one-year contract. Floyd, who was limited to 97 games last season due to injuries, will likely be the fourth outfielder in an outfield that would see Murton, Soriano, and Jones as the regulars.

Though many assumed that Jones would move to center field to accomodate Soriano, who came off of a 40-40 season last year while playing left field for the Nationals, manager Lou Piniella has hinted that he has considered starting Soriano in center field. Other rumors involved moving Mark DeRosa to center field to make room for Theriot or Cedeno. In any case, it appears that Felix Pie will start the year in Iowa (AAA), as he should.

After the Cubs signed lefty Will Ohman to a multi-year deal last week, pitchers Carlos Zambrano and Mark Prior are the only two Cubs yet to be signed for the 2007 season. Zambrano, who grabbed a share of the league lead in wins (16) last year despite not winning a game in his first seven starts, is seeking $15.5 million for next season. The Cubs have countered with just over $11 million and the two sides now have until February 1 to agree on a deal or take the case to salary arbitration.

If the case does go to a hearing, it would be the first time that Andy MacPhail has taken a player to arbitration, and it would also mean that Zambrano would become a free agent after the 2007 season. Keep in mind, all Zambrano needs to do is prove that he's worth more a penny over $13,262,500 to get the entire $15.5 million. Furthermore, it might be best to sign Zambrano to a long-term deal now, with Barry Zito's monster contract this off-season and surely more to come next season, the price tag on Zambrano would go up at the end of the season.

Zambrano, who has already been named the Opening Day starter, has stated that he does not want contract negotiations to continue once the season starts.

On the other hand, Mark Prior has been offered $3.4 million. The once highly coveted right-hander, has countered with $3.875 million, putting the half-way point very close to his salary of $3.65 million last season. Prior, who has won more than ten games only twice in his career, says that he is ready to return to the rotation full time, but why should we believe him? Personally, I've lost all hope in Mark Prior and don't see how he thinks he has a chance to win the case.

Friday, January 19, 2007

Samardzija chooses baseball, signs with Cubs

Many people, including myself, questioned the Cubs' decision to draft Jeff Samardzija as high as the fifth round. Even though Samardzija posted a 21-6 record in three years at Notre Dame, picking him was a huge gamble, because it appeared that Samardzija would enter the NFL draft.

After posting a 1-2 record and a 2.70 ERA with the Boise Hawks and Peoria Chiefs, however, Jeff Samardzija signed a deal that could keep him with the Cubs organization potentially through the 2013 season. The former wide reciever earned a $2.5 million signing bonus and will make $10 million over the next five years. After that, the Cubs have an option for the 2012 and 2013 seasons.

Even though Bobby Brownlie didn't turn out exactly how I, and many others around the Cubs organization, had wanted him to turn out, adding another young arm in the farm system can't hurt. The price tag may appear to be excessive, but compared to the rest of the deals that the Cubs made this off-season, maybe it's not so bad.

Samardzija will likely start the season in Advanced-A Daytona.