The Chicago Cubs have filled their hole in right field. Milton Bradley has agreed to a three-year deal that sends the oft-troubled switch hitter to Wrigley Field. The deal is for a combined $30MM, but that doesn't account for all of the other costs that the Cubs had to pay to free up that kind of money.
As we are all familiar with by now, Jim Hendry and the Cubs have been troubled financially. In order to free up the money, the Cubs had to trade Mark DeRosa to the Indians and have a tentative agreement in place with the Rockies to trade Jason Marquis. This deal is expected to free up between $8.5MM to $9MM and we can expect that amount will make up Bradley and catcher Paul Bako's salary for the 2009 season.
The Bako signing has not yet been announced, but he is expected to sign for $500,000. The details of the Bradley have been announced. He gets a $4MM signing bonus and $5MM for 2009. In 2010 and 2011, he will get the remaining $21MM, while the team has the option of buying out the final year of the contract if Bradley's health is in question.
I know I've been ranting, but let's analyze the series of moves that were put in place for this deal to happen one last time. The team lost (or will lose) Mark DeRosa and Jason Marquis, while gaining Jeff Stevens and Milton Bradley. While it's not clear what kind of a contribution Stevens will make to the Major League club in 2009, it won't be much. To discuss what he might bring in the future is one thing, but it's pretty clear that Hendry was going for it now. So, we ought to analyze this deal based on what the immediate impacts are.
Last season, DeRosa's numbers were: .285, 21 HR, 87 RBI, .376 OBP, .481 slugging.
In comparison, Milton Bradley posted: .321, 22 HR, 77 RBI, .436 OBP, .563 slugging.
(To be fair, Mark DeRosa had a career year. But, Milton Bradley also performed far better in 2008 than in any other season.)
What the Cubs should have done is keep Kosuke Fukudome in right field. Despite all of his struggles last year, Fukudome's total numbers were not completely awful: .257, 10 HR, 58 RBI, .359 OBP, .379 slugging.
While there are slight issues with leaving Fukudome as the every-day right fielder (such as Joey Gathright then has to become the fourth outfielder), the offensive production hasn't changed much; the DeRosa-Bradley comparison is similar, as is the Fukudome-Fontenot (or Miles/Cedeno, if you'd rather) comparison. So, who would you rather have? DeRosa & Fukudome starting? Or Bradley & Fontenot?
While the DeRosa & Fukudome duo is slightly inferior offensively, they more than make up for it defense. That's not the point though; to make all this happen, we had to unload Jason Marquis.
Analysis of Marquis' numbers recently shows that he's a lock for 12 wins and 190 innings. Though, he fell short of both of those marks last year, that was because he made only 28 starts because he was constantly skipped. Now, in his place, the fifth spot in the rotation has to be filled with someone from the bullpen, whether that be Sean Marshall, Jeff Samardzija or Neal Cotts. This has two effects: the number five position in the rotation get considerably weaker (for which I predict a net-loss of four games) and the already-decimated bullpen loses even more depth (another two games?).
Bradley might out-hit DeRosa, but not by six games' worth.
The rotation was supposed to be Zambrano-Lilly-Harden-Dempster-Marquis. Under those circumtances, if MSC (that's Marshall, Samardzija, and/or Cotts) has to spell Rich Harden every now and again, that's not a problem. Now, one member of MSC is forced to fill in permanently, and giving Harden a breather will now require a second player from the MSC trio. Knocking on wood, it's scary to think what might happen if Harden (or anyone else) goes down for any extended period of time.
For all of you who are thinking, "But what about Jake Peavy?"... Forget about it. Jim Hendry has never been completely forth-coming to the fans (like when he fabricated three meetings with Ivan Rodriguez's agent prior to the 2004 season). There never was a realistic chance that we could have gotten Jake Peavy.
Barring an immediate ownership change of the team, Hendry's pocket book has been maxed out for quite some time. This is evident by how exactly the math checks out; Hendry unloaded $8.5MM and added roughly the same amount. We've always suspected that $140MM was the ceiling for Hendry and he's right at that number again. I have been keeping track of the team's payroll on the right-side of the blog. The number shown currently does not yet account for the other 25 players not yet under contract.
The total reads $122.6MM. Gregg, Cedeno, and Wuertz will add about $8-9MM, meaning there is roughly $10MM left for the other 22 players. That sounds about right; the league minimum has been raised to $400,000.
Looking ahead: But dwelling on the past or what could have been has to stop eventually. At some point, we need to look at the team we have right now. Jim Hendry had a 97-win team last year. He made us weaker, but not by much. I still suspect the team to be able to win about 90 games and that should be enough to defend the division championship. After all, the Brewers aren't exactly getting better.
The lineup will look something like Soriano, Theriot, Lee, Bradley, Ramirez, Soto, Fontenot, Johnson, Pitcher. That's not too shabby. We finally have that left-handed (in this case, switch hitting) bat in the middle of our lineup to break up the right handed hitters. However, Lou Piniella should wise up and move Lee out of the three-hole, though it's hard to see who else hits there.
I am advocating that Bradley hits ahead of Ramirez for the same reason why I wanted Fukudome ahead of Ramirez: put that gigantic on-base percentage ahead of a run-producer like Aramis. Moving Bradley, Ramirez, and Soto each up by a slot in the lineup might be the right thing to do, but Piniella probably won't consider hitting Lee sixth.
On a minor note, this move most definitely means the end for Felix Pie. He is out of options and becomes the team's sixth outfielder (behind Soriano, Fukudome, Johnson, Gathright and now Bradley). However, he should still draw moderate interest from other teams. Somebody please clarify if I'm wrong, but if I recall correctly, when a team receives -- via trade -- a player who is out of options but not yet eligible for free agency, that team is given the opportunity to freely add a fourth option year for the new player.