Batting third: first baseman Daryle Ward

Since July 25, Derrek Lee has been awful. Sure, he hit a few meaningless doubles on the first couple of days of August to pad his stat sheet, but even with those his numbers are less than impressive: 26-133 (.230). He's drawn 18 walks over the span of time, but considering how seldom he bothers to swing the bat that's a pretty low number. He's fanned 32 times since then, and many of those were because he put himself in tough counts by taking too many strikes. In fact, of his last 12 strikeouts, Lee took a called third 6 times!

First, let me start by saying that I give credit to Lou Piniella for sticking with Derrek Lee. I can't fault Piniella for thinking that Lee is who we all thought that he was. (You know, not a fraud.) I wanted to give Lee a couple of days off starting August 14, but Lou stuck with his all-star (really?) first baseman. If you'll remember, the Cubs finished a 20 games in 20 days stretch on August 12 without Daryle Ward and Aramis Ramirez before an off-day on August 13. With Soriano already on the disabled list, Piniella couldn't justify benching Lee and Ramirez, especially when he didn't have Ward. Looking back on it, benching him right after getting Ward and Ramirez back would've been too early and benching him now might also be too early.

But if Derrek Lee keeps this up any further, we can't afford to keep an automatic out in the middle of our lineup, especially if we want to stay alive in the post season hunt.

The numbers really are quite deceiving, because Lee doesn't appear to be struggling as bad as he is. In actuality, Lee is beyond struggling: he's just bad. His useless hits in pointless situations are the only reason why he's still above .300 -- or near it for that matter.

On August 25, Lee took a called third in the first inning, hit what would've been a double play (had it not been for a defensive miscue), before a soft single with two outs and nobody on. On August 24, Lee popped out with a man on second base and also hit into a rally-killing double play. August 23's 0-for-4 came at inopportune times: twice with a runner on and twice while leading off the inning. On August 22, Lee struck out in a 2-2 game in the ninth after hitting into a double play earlier. I could keep going, but those who have watched Derrek Lee know exactly how bad he's been.

Those that have seen Derrek Lee know about his defensive incompetence as well. Sure, he made a good pick on a low throw by Ryan Theriot in last night's game, but Lee's range seems to have been cut in half and he also bobbles his fair share of balls hit straight at him (3rd inning last night is just one of many examples). This really doesn't show up on the stat sheet, though; he always does just enough to avoid errors, but there have been plenty of plays that the Derrek Lee of 2005 would've made look easy that today's Lee refuses to handle.

With a right-handed Yusmeiro Petit pitching today's finale against the Diamondbacks, this is how I would write the lineup:

SS Ryan Theriot
C Jason Kendall
1B Daryle Ward
3B Aramis Ramirez
RF Cliff Floyd
2B Mark DeRosa
LF Matt Murton
CF Felix Pie / Jacque Jones
P Jason Marquis

If we win tomorrow, I'd stick with that lineup. If we don't, I'd try to change things around, but keep Lee out of the lineup until Daryle Ward posts an 0-for-15 streak. (Then, I would move DeRosa to first and play Fontenot.)

If Soriano's back (rumor has it could be as soon as Tuesday), then the lineup should read like this against right-handed pitchers:

LF Alfonso Soriano
SS Ryan Theriot
1B Daryle Ward
3B Aramis Ramirez
RF Cliff Floyd
2B Mark DeRosa
C Jason Kendall
CF Felix Pie / Jacque Jones
P Pitcher

With a crucial series against the Brewers coming up, we can't afford to have our three-hole hitter be a guy that doesn't care. If his performances at the plate and on the field still don't have you convinced that Derrek Lee isn't caring, check out how hard he's running after hitting the ball in his ninth inning at-bat on August 24. MLB.com now shows each half-inning in its entirety after the game is played, so copy and paste both parts of the URL below (sorry -- too long to post in one line), then click on the "3" spot in the Cubs' half of the ninth and fast forward to Lee's at-bat (seventh AB of the inning). With the bases loaded and no outs, you'd think he'd run to first to stay out of a double play. Instead, he's barely even jogging.

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/news/wrap.jsp?ymd=20070824&content_id=21680
77&vkey=wrapup2005&fext=.jsp&team=away&c_id=chc

Last time we played Milwaukee, we were 7 1/2 games behind the Brewers. Milwaukee let us have two out of three because that still kept us 6 1/2 back, but now the tables have turned. We're in the lead and the Brewers have the urgency that we had last time. Tomorrow's games for the Cubs and Brewers will be crucial for setting up the final meeting between the two teams atop the NL Central Standings on Tuesday.

The most likely scenario is that we stay 1 1/2 games ahead of the Brewers. I would be okay with that: even if the Brewers win the series at Wrigley, we could still stay in first place. The best case scenario obviously is a 2 1/2 game difference, which would give us a golden opportunity to move as far as 3 1/2 games in front of the Brewers by the end of the week.

Milwaukee is obviously looking to be only 1/2 game behind before the series starts. A series victory would put them in first place while avoiding the sweep keeps them just 1 1/2 back -- very much within striking distance.

Let's not forget about the Cardinals either. Facing a struggling Jo-Jo Reyes on Sunday before taking on the sixth place Houston Astros on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, the Cardinals could make this race really interesting by the time September begins. It almost seems like St. Louis could go 3-1 in their next four games, meaning a well-earned 2-2 over the next four for us will close the gap on the Cardinals to just 2 games -- one in the loss column.