Monday, August 6, 2007

Is Glavine the last to 300?

Let's analyze each of the pitchers listed as having an 8% chance or better of reaching 300 wins in the 2007 Bill James Handbook.

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RANDY JOHNSON (70%) - 286 WINS
AGE: 43 yr, 10.8 mo
EXPECTED 07 WINS: 14.4
ACTUAL 07 RECORD: 4-3

Heading into this season, a betting man clearly would've taken Johnson's chances to get to 300. Just 16 wins shy, Johnson entered the 2007 season having won at least 16 games in each of the last three seasons, but his career might very well be over due to injury troubles. There's no question that after 4 months of the 2007 season, that 70% probability has dropped drastically.

EDDIE'S DIAGNOSIS: Possible.

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MIKE MUSSINA (18%) - 245 WINS
AGE: 38 yr, 7.9 mo
EXPECTED 07 WINS: 13.3
ACTUAL 07 RECORD: 6-7

Mussina is the only AL pitcher to win 10 or more games in 15 or more consecutive seasons (15+ in 10 seasons), but keeping that streak alive seems to be in jeopardy this year. Even if he does manage 10 wins on the year, he would still need more than 50 wins after that to get to 300. This means he would have to pitch effectively into the 2011 season, when he would be 42. Possible? Yes, but his probability is also much lower than what it was coming into the season.

EDDIE'S DIAGNOSIS: Very unlikely.

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JOHAN SANTANA (16%) - 89 WINS
AGE: 28 yr, 5.7 mo
EXPECTED 07 WINS: 17.1
ACTUAL 07 RECORD: 11-9

It seems weird to see a guy who's yet to reach 100 wins being mentioned in the talk for 300, but I think that Bill James was right to include Santana's name on the list. He entered the season having averaged better than 18 wins per year over the last three years and though he might fall short of his expected 2007 win total, it's likely that Santana would be beyond 92 career wins by the end of the year. That would leave him with 208 to go: ten 16-win seasons and four 12-win seasons. If he stays healthy and consistent, we're looking at him getting there at age of 43.

EDDIE'S DIAGNOSIS: Too soon to tell.

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PEDRO MARTINEZ (13%) - 206 WINS
AGE: 35 yr, 9.3 mo
EXPECTED 07 WINS: 10.2
ACTUAL 07 RECORD: NR

Obviously published before it was known that Martinez would miss this many starts, the Handbook expected 10 wins out of him. Needless to say, he will fall short of that mark. He'd be extremely lucky to get to 210 career wins by the end of the year and even then he would need six 15-win seasons. Martinez is clearly on the way down and while he could still get to 300, the probability for this pitcher has also dipped below the mark that he entered the season with.

EDDIE DIAGNOSIS: Very unlikely.

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JOHN SMOLTZ (10%) - 203 WINS
AGE: 40 yrs, 2.7 mo
EXPECTED 07 WINS: 13.4
ACTUAL 07 RECORD: 10-6

Had Smoltz not spent 3+ years closing, he would probably be on pace to pass 250 wins by the end of the season and would have a shot at 300 wins. However, he's likely going to need around 93 wins after the year is done. Even if Smoltz turns up the pace and averages 17 wins per year, he would be 46 when he reaches 300. If he wants it done by his 45th birthday, Smoltz would have to average more than 22 wins per season. It looks like Smoltz kept up with his probability at what it was to begin this season (ie: he'll probably reach his expected win count), but I don't understand why it was so high to begin with.

EDDIE'S DIAGNOSIS: No chance.

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CURT SCHILLING (9%) - 213 WINS
AGE: 40 yrs, 8.7 mo
EXPECTED 07 WINS: 12.8
ACTUAL 07 RECORD: 6-4

Schilling is ten wins ahead of Smoltz, but he's six months behind and has health issues. Turning 41 right after the end of the season, Curt would be lucky to have four (maybe five) seasons left. That's 21 wins (or 17 wins) per season for the rest of his career if he wants to get to 300.

EDDIE'S DIAGNOSIS: No chance.

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ANDY PETTITTE (9%) - 193 WINS
AGE: 35 yr, 2.3 mo
EXPECTED 07 WINS: 13.4
ACTUAL 07 RECORD: 7-7

Another pitcher on the chase for 300 that will fall short of his expected win total for this year. He won't win his 200th game this year, but he is a lot younger than some of the other guys on that list. Having averaged 16.5 wins in each of last six full seasons, he could get to 300 before turning 42. The question is: will he be pitching that long? If he stays healthy and he wants to get to 300, he's got a good shot.

EDDIE'S DIAGNOSIS: Very unlikely.

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LIVAN HERNANDEZ (8%) - 130 WINS
AGE: 32 yr, 5.5 mo
EXPECTED 07 WINS: 11.6
ACTUAL 07 RECORD: 7-7

He racked up 123 wins in his first 10 years, so he's going to get 170 in his last 10 years? I don't think so. Besides, he's won more than 15 games just once in his career. It looks like Hernandez has a real good chance at 200 wins, but 300 appears to be out of reach.

EDDIE'S DIAGNOSIS: No chance.

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KENNY ROGERS (8%) - 210 WINS
AGE: 42 yr, 8.8 mo
EXPECTED 07 WINS: 12.9
ACTUAL 07 RECORD: 3-2

Injuries hurt any chance Kenny Rogers had at 300. He would need 90 wins after turning 43, meaning an average of 18 wins per season for five years. Just in case you were wondering, his career high is 18 wins and he did that only once. What are the chances he pitches until he's 48, let alone him matching his career-high five years in a row?

EDDIE'S DIAGNOSIS: No chance.

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ROY OSWALT (8%) - 109 WINS
AGE: 29 yrs, 11.2 mo
EXPECTED 07 WINS: 14.2
ACTUAL 07 RECORD: 11-6

It looks like Oswalt's on the list because many past 300 game winners didn't get a good start until they were in their thirties. Lefty Grove had 115 wins at the age of 30, Early Wynn had 101 wins at the age of 30, and Gaylord Perry was at 95 wins when he turned 30. Oswalt's got potential to average 17 or so wins for the next 10 years and doing so would put him over 280 at the age of 40, giving him a realistic shot. But anything short of that and he's going to have a tough time getting to 300.

EDDIE'S DIAGNOSIS: Unlikely.

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CARLOS ZAMBRANO - 78 WINS
AGE: 26 yr, 2.2 mo
EXPECTED 07 WINS: 14
ACTUAL 07 RECORD: 14-7

Despite a slow start to the season, Zambrano finds himself leading the league in wins with 14. He'll definitely pass his expected total of 14 wins of this season and will most likely top his career-high of 16 wins. With his amazing 2007 season, he's entered his name into the race for 300 wins; he's in a better position than Santana was when Bill James put him at 16% (78 wins at age 27). Nonetheless, Zambrano would have to break a trend if he wants to enter the 300-win club; James has a convincing argument that pitchers who log many innings before turning 26 don't have a shot.

EDDIE'S DIAGNOSIS: Very unlikely.

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